Frost Advisory 5, NWS Twin Cities, MN

263 
WWUS73 KMPX 071344
NPWMPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
844 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024

WIZ014>016-023-025-027-028-071445-
/O.EXP.KMPX.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-241007T1400Z/
Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Dunn-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Rice Lake, Hudson, Osceola, Eau Claire,
Chippewa Falls, Menomonie, and Ladysmith
844 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

As temperatures are warming the frost advisory will be allowed to 
expire.

$$

NDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today in Minnesota.

- Highs warming back into the 80s by the end the work week.

- No changes to the warm and dry weather pattern over the next
  2 weeks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For most of the area this morning skies are clear, but a secondary
cold front moving into central MN is bringing with it some northwest
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and a batch of cyclonic flow stratus.
This stratus will sag south through the morning, getting a little
south of the I-94 corridor. However, it will not be a cloudy day,
with the clouds expected to be cleared out by the time the Vikings
wrap up their game in London and the last of the athletes are
finishing up the Twin Cities Marathon. It will be a cooler day than
what we saw Saturday, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid
60s, but we will have some breezy northwest winds through the day.
These cooler temperatures will help keep afternoon RHs from really
tanking, but we'll still have elevated fire weather concerns. We
have issued an SPS for most of our MN counties, where we'll have
wind gusts in the 20s and RH values falling to between 25 and 35
percent.

For the next week, upper ridging will be dominating the center of
North America, so very little in the way of exciting weather is
expected. We'll start off on a chilly note, with all but the core of
the Twin Cities metro falling into the 30s Monday morning, but it
does not look to be the first widespread killing freeze of the
season, which we see on average between the last week of September
and second week of October. Winds will have a significant easterly
component through Wednesday, which will keep highs in the 60s and
70s, but Thursday, those winds become southerly, which will bring
the return of widespread highs in the 80s. There's quite a bit of
uncertainty with highs on Friday as we'll be seeing a shallow cold
front sagging south across MN during the day. Ahead of that front,
we'll likely see highs up into the mid 80s, putting record highs in
jeopardy, but if you find yourself on the other side of the front,
highs will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler. Because of that front,
there's quite a bit a spread for Friday highs. Like all the fronts
we've seen recently, there's little upper forcing and plenty of dry
air with it, so it looks to be another dry front. Though there is
some small hope for rain Saturday in western WI behind the front as
a baroclinic zone tightens up aloft, it's a small chance at best.

Going into next week, upper ridging returns to the central CONUS,
which means more dry and unseasonably warm weather, with those 80s
at the end of the upcoming work week likely not our last shot at
seeing 80 this year. Looking at the EPS/GEPS/GEFS, our rain chances
for the next 2 weeks look minimal and we're likely looking at the
final week of October before we even start getting some whispers of
rain chances returning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Early this afternoon the morning stratus has cleared out of
Minnesota with just some few to scattered VFR that will quickly
clear out later this afternoon. Winds will remain gusty from
the northwest through sunset before falling to around 10 knots.
Overnight winds become light. Winds pick back from the west at
around 10 knots on Monday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...NDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
321 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
070830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
321 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Northwest winds will gust up to 40 mph this morning, with
sporadic gusts up to 50 mph possible across central Minnesota.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon as
northwest winds gust to 30 mph with relative humidity values
falling to between 25 and 35 percent.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.