Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east and out of
the area this afternoon as a cold front moves across the area.
IFR/MVFR conditions will continue through tonight with VFR
conditions developing Sunday morning. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 541 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

Showers and storms over southeast Mississippi and extreme
southwestern Alabama progress eastward across the area through the
early afternoon hours as a cold front moves through the area.
Mostly IFR to MVFR conditions are expected through tonight, though
an improvement to VFR conditions is possible this afternoon over
southeast Mississippi and much of southwestern Alabama, but then
an IFR/MVFR ceiling is expected to reform over this portion
tonight. Southeasterly winds near 10 knots develop by mid morning
then switch to the northwest as the front moves through. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

An upper trof over the central states progresses well into the
eastern states during the period, with an associated surface low
bringing a strong cold front through the forecast area today. A
squall line is expected to organize just ahead/along the front
and progress fairly quickly through the forecast area from this
morning through the early afternoon hours. After examining model
soundings, there are two potential limiting factors for the
strength of the squall line. The first of these continues to be
concern about the quality of the lower level lapse rates, and a
second is now apparent with the soundings very moist overall with
little available DCAPE. Plenty of favorable shear is otherwise
available should convection become surface or near-surface based,
but the limited DCAPE calls into question the ability for
convection to be able to mix down the stronger flow aloft, and the
potential for less than favorable lower level lapse rates means
that most of the available CAPE may remain elevated. These
limiting factors create uncertainty for the potential of severe
storm development today, but will need to continue to closely
monitor as there has been a LOT of uncertainty with the weather
pattern lately and things could change quickly to a more favorable
environment. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of
severe storms in effect for most of the area except for a Marginal
Risk mainly over the far western portion. Categorical pops this
morning will be followed by dry conditions developing from west to
east through the early evening hours, with dry conditions
continuing for Sunday as much drier and cooler air flows into the
area in the wake of the front. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
with the storms which may lead to flooding concerns. A high risk
of rip currents continues through tonight, followed by a moderate
risk for Sunday. Highs today will be 70-75, then Sunday will be
much cooler with highs in the 50s. Lows tonight range from the
lower 40s well inland to the mid 40s elsewhere. /29

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

An upper ridge builds over the Plains, then shifts east to over
the Mississippi River into mid week, shifting a mean upper trough
over the eastern Conus to along the East Coast. Surface high
pressure moving over the western Gulf brings southwest to westerly
low level flow back to the Southeast by Tuesday. This shift in
low level flow, in combination with the building upper ridge, will
help to moderate temperatures early in the coming week. A strong
shortwave system moves into the East Coast trough mid week, with a
cold front moving over the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday
evening in response. With the moisture return ahead of the
front's passage modest, and upper support from the passing upper
system remaining well northwest of the forecast area due to the
upper ridge, the frontal passage is expected to be rain free.
Behind the front, temperatures see a small drop, but quickly
rebound to above seasonal norms by Friday.

Looking at the specifics, temperature wise, low temperatures in mid
30s to around 40 Sunday and Monday nights rise to the low to mid 40s
Tuesday night, then drop back into the mid 30s to around 40 for
Wednesday and Thursday nights as a drier and a bit cooler airmass
moves over the forecast area. High temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s to around 60 Monday rise into the mid to upper 60s
Wednesday. High temperatures see a small drop Thursday, into the low
to mid 60s, but quickly rebound into the mid 60s for Friday.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

Based on the latest observational trends, have cancelled the
marine Dense Fog Advisory for the Alabama bays and near shore
waters. While the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled, patchy
fog will still be possible through mid morning. A Small Craft
Advisory is now in effect for the 20-60 nm portion beginning at 6
am this morning, then the 0-20 nm portion will have a Small Craft
Advisory in effect as well by 9 pm this evening. The Small Craft
Advisory ends over the 0-20 nm portion by 9 am Sunday then ends
over the 20-60 nm portion by 6 am Monday. Winds and seas will be
higher with storms mainly today. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      45  57  37  60  36  62  43  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   46  57  41  58  39  60  46  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      48  59  43  61  42  61  50  65 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   43  56  36  59  33  63  40  64 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  43  53  34  58  33  64  40  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      43  52  36  56  32  62  40  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   45  58  37  61  34  63  41  66 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
838 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

ALZ059-FLZ201-203-271515-
Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
838 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...NORTHERN
SANTA ROSA AND NORTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM CST...

At 837 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Flomaton to 6 miles south of Century to 3 miles
north of Molino. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Brewton, Century, Flomaton, East Brewton, Jay, Pollard, and
Riverview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8734 3085 8731 3105 8735 3119 8682
      3100 8678 3100 8679 3087 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 246DEG 34KT 3101 8728 3088 8726 3077 8733

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1148 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     Flash Flood      Munson                  30.86N 86.87W
01/27/2024                   Santa Rosa         FL   911 Call Center

            Santa Rosa County Dispatch reports water
            covering the road at the intersection of
            Munson Hwy and Hwy 4.

&&

21/CLL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1157 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     Flash Flood      5 WNW Allentown         30.78N 87.13W
01/27/2024                   Santa Rosa         FL   911 Call Center

            Santa Rosa County 911 Dispatch reports water
            over the roadway near the 3900 block of CR
            182.

&&

21/CLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1254 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

FLZ205-206-271945-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
1254 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM CST...

At 1253 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles south of Navarre Beach to 17 miles
south of Mary Esther to 43 miles south of Destin. Movement was
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso,
Mary Esther, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine, Shalimar, and Cinco Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 8646 3062 8639 3046 8639 3048 8633
      3047 8630 3048 8628 3040 8628 3039 8629
      3040 8629 3040 8630 3042 8630 3042 8631
      3038 8633 3040 8639 3028 8639 3029 8680
      3027 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 228DEG 53KT 3021 8691 3015 8668 2977 8655

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH