Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
112 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast.
Light northerly winds will quickly turn easterly then south
easterly by this afternoon. BB/03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Dry and breezy weather conditions this afternoon give way to a
much quieter, relaxed evening into overnight as the pressure
gradient over the area weakens. Upper troughing today gives way to
a building upper ridge across the area tonight into Sunday.
Likewise, surface high pressure settles in through Sunday morning.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and dry weather to prevail
with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to middle 70's for
most areas. Overnight lows will cool a good bit tonight thanks to
the relaxing winds and clearing skies with temperatures falling
into the lower 40's over the interior and middle 40's nearer the
coast.

The rip current risk will gradually decrease this evening going
from the current High risk to a Moderate risk for tonight.
Lighter onshore winds Sunday should give one day of a Low rip
current risk before rip current potential ramps back up Monday
ahead of the next storm system. MM/25

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

We'll finish off the weekend, and for most areas through Monday
afternoon, with dry weather as the axis of an upper ridge over the
southeast states drifts slowly to the Eastern Seaboard. A surface
ridge will remain entrenched between the Appalachian Mountains
and the Eastern Seaboard through Monday afternoon. Increasing
southerly flow along the western periphery of the ridge should
bring isolated light showers across southeast MS and Mobile County
AL on Monday due to isentropic overrunning and a warm front
slowly lift northward.

The main event will come in Monday night through Tuesday as a
potent upper trough ejects across the Central Plains into the
Great Lakes region. The available moisture will be mainly confined
to below 700mb, but at this time we are still expecting PWATs to
increase to between 1.5 to 1.9 inches across the entire forecast
area by late Monday night. A band of precipitation will push
through Monday night and Tuesday, and then taper off late Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a weak surface cool front moves in from
the northwest and pushes offshore.

A likely squall line will be moving across southeast Mississippi
and interior southwest Alabama Monday night. We will continue to
monitor this system for the potential for strong to severe storms,
but instability still appears rather limited with the best jet
dynamics lifting out by Tuesday morning. We still expect a likely
period overnight Monday night into early Tuesday, when deep layer
lift will be sufficient and 50 to 60 knot low-level jet noses into
southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama, supportive
of strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds and
tornadoes. We call these setups high shear/low CAPE and they can
be quite finicky. If we get enough instability and good deep layer
lift to overcome lower instability then storms can take advantage
of the impressive kinematics leading to a sneaky but strong
severe potential. Could easily see a line of severe storms produce
tornadoes in southeast Mississippi and interior southwest
Alabama, then quickly fizzle to just a line of heavy rain with
embedded thunderstorms across the rest of the forecast area.
Periods of moderate to brief heavy rainfall should occur with this
event with widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" with locally
higher amounts.

With a very tight surface pressure gradient setting up ahead of
this system, strong southeasterly winds sustained from 15 to 30
mph with frequent gusts up to around 35 to 45 mph are forecast,
and a Wind Advisory will likely be required. Coastal hazards will
also be present as high surf and life threatening rip currents
will be likely Monday night through Tuesday night. A High Surf
Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be required as
well.

Low temperatures Sunday night will mainly be in the low to mid
50s, or about 3 to 8 degrees above normal. The exception being
upper 40s over a portion of south central Alabama, and upper 50s
to lower 60s along the coast. Lows Monday night will be 11 to 16
degrees above normal, ranging from 59 to 64 degrees. High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be around normal, ranging
from 70 to 75 degrees. /22

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Ridging will quickly build over the central US ushering in a
brief period of northwesterly to westerly flow a loft by the end
of the week. Drier air will once again filter in as a weak cool
front pushes offshore Wednesday. A rather pleasant end of the week
will be on tap with mild temperatures, low dewpoints and mostly
sunny skies. Near perfect spring time forecast for the remainder
of the week. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Moderate to at times strong offshore flow this evening gives way
to a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow Sunday.
Onshore flow ramps up quickly as we head into Sunday night and
Monday with at least Small Craft Advisory criteria winds becoming
established Sunday night. Sustained Gale conditions are possible
with Gale force gusts likely across the marine waters ahead of the
next approaching system late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
In response to this, seas will build rapidly during this period.
In the wake of the system Tuesday through Friday, a light to
moderate offshore flow will become established once again with
gradually diminishing seas. A Small Craft Advisory and/or Gale
Watch will likely be needed in future forecast packages for the
Sunday night through Tuesday timeframe. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  58  71  62  75  51  75  49 /   0   0  20  50  80  10   0   0
Pensacola   71  59  71  65  73  56  75  52 /   0   0  10  20  90  20   0  10
Destin      70  58  71  66  73  58  75  54 /   0   0  10  10  80  30  10  10
Evergreen   75  50  73  61  73  50  74  46 /   0   0  10  30  90  10   0   0
Waynesboro  74  53  69  59  73  47  71  45 /   0   0  10  70  70  10   0  10
Camden      73  51  72  60  71  48  71  46 /   0   0  10  40  90  10   0  10
Crestview   75  51  74  61  74  52  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  90  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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