Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Mobile, AL

249 
WWUS54 KMOB 282040
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
340 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

ALC097-282050-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-240728T2045Z/
Mobile AL-
340 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3092 8842 3097 8843 3109 8843 3112 8835
      3111 8833 3112 8833 3114 8827 3089 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 246DEG 21KT 3110 8816 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
129 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Scattered showers and storms are moving west to east across
portions of the region this early afternoon, and may become a
little more numerous late this afternoon. Some showers and storms
will persist into the early evening hours. Most convection will
end over inland areas overnight, but continue offshore. Toward
daybreak on Monday some shower and storm activity will again be
possible along the coast, developing inland during the morning
hours. Calm or light and variable winds for many locations through
tonight into early Monday, sometimes southerly to southwesterly
especially near the coast. DS/12

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

The upper ridge over the region weakens slightly tonight as a
shortwave trough moving east across the Great Lakes region brings
increased upper level troughing to much of the eastern CONUS. The
northern periphery of the upper ridging over the Gulf will remain
across the immediate coastal areas through tonight, with upper
ridging then building north to the west of our forecast area on
Monday as the upper troughing deepens somewhat along the US East
Coast. With this, a deep mid layer northwesterly flow will develop
over the area on Monday, with guidance indicating potential for a
couple of weak shortwaves to drop southeast across our area during
the day. At the surface, a very weak trough continues to linger across
the immediate Gulf coast region.

With the potential shortwave activity aloft, the continuing
surface boundary, and PWAT's remaining in the 2.0 to 2.2 inch
range, look for a slight increase in coverage of showers and
storms again on Monday (after a slightly lower coverage than past
few days today). Best chances for showers and storms on Monday
will be over the eastern half of our forecast area due to
influences of slightly increased upper riding over the west. We do
expect the diurnal nature of convective to persist through
Monday, with showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast
late tonight and then becoming more numerous and developing inland
during the day on Monday. A few of the stronger storms have the
potential of creating gusty surface winds up to the 35 to 40 mph
range. However the main concern will continue to be the risk of
locally heavy rainfall and potential resultant minor flooding of
low lying, poor drainage and and urban areas as the showers and
storms should be very efficient rain producers.

Low temperatures tonight will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal, and
range from 73 to 76 degrees inland areas, and from 77 to 81
degrees along the coast. Highs on Monday will be quite warm, at
least in the lower 90s across all of the area, and possibly mid
90s over western portions of the forecast area. Looks like we will
need a Heat Advisory over western portions of the forecast area,
mainly MS counties and western most tier of AL counties (Choctaw,
Washington and Mobile), as heat indices could reach up to around
109 degrees in some locations.

DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  92  76  93  76  95  77  95 /  10  60  20  50  20  40  10  40
Pensacola   78  91  78  92  78  93  79  94 /  20  80  30  70  30  60  10  40
Destin      79  90  79  91  80  92  80  93 /  20  60  40  70  30  60  20  40
Evergreen   74  92  74  93  75  95  75  96 /  50  70  20  60  10  50  10  40
Waynesboro  74  94  74  96  75  98  73  98 /  20  60  10  30  10  30  10  30
Camden      73  91  74  92  75  95  75  95 /  40  70  20  60  10  40  10  30
Crestview   73  92  74  93  75  94  75  96 /  20  80  30  70  20  60  10  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
252 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

ALZ261-MSZ076-079-282030-
Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-George MS-
252 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...
NORTHEASTERN GEORGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
CDT...

At 252 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Lucedale, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chunchula and Gulfcrest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 8857 3112 8840 3111 8833 3115 8833
      3114 8826 3091 8818 3087 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 252DEG 9KT 3098 8847

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH