Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Mobile, AL

696 
WWUS54 KMOB 301611
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1111 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

ALC035-039-053-301621-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-240430T1630Z/
Escambia AL-Conecuh AL-Covington AL-
1111 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CONECUH AND SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3106 8687 3124 8686 3129 8651 3102 8650
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 269DEG 14KT 3115 8670 

$$

16-WORSTER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
718 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Some low clouds (mainly in the MVFR range, but isolated IFR) and
patchy light fog (again primarily in the MVFR) across the area
this morning, but increasing to VFR by 30/14z. Some isolated
showers east of I-65 in Alabama and over the western Florida
panhandle this morning, but moving east of the area by midday.
Winds primarily light south to southeast. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A fairly vigorous shortwave through axis is moving east across the
forecast area this morning, and has initiated another round of
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over portions of the area,
especially down near the coastal areas of MS and AL. This newer
round of convection is somewhat limited in coverage however,
partially due to the stabilizing effect of the previous remnant MCS
boundary that moved across the area Monday evening. This area of
convection will spread east across the forecast area through the
morning hours, likely extending further inland with heating after
sunrise as the shortwave axis continues east across the area. The
orientation of the rain axis will allow for some training of heavier
cells, with some brief heavy rainfall rates possible at any one
location as the precip moves east across the area. Some brief
localized ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas could
be possible this morning, but no widespread flooding is expected.
Severe storms are not expected. By early this afternoon, the
shortwave axis will be east of our area and rains will end and skies
will begin to clear from west to east. Low to mid level ridging will
build over the forecast area in the wake of the shortwave, and no
rain is expected from late this afternoon through Wednesday. High
temperatures today should be in the lower 80s for most locations,
but some mid 80s over interior southeast MS (where we will likely
see longer duration of direct sunshine) and only mid to upper 70s
near the beaches with a moderating onshore wind flow coming in off
the Gulf. Lows tonight mainly in the lower 60s, but some upper 60s
to lower 70s possible along the beaches and barrier islands. It will
be warmer on Wednesday, with highs ranging from the mid and upper
80s over most interior locations but low to mid 80s closer to the
coast. DS/12

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

In the wake of an exiting shortwave trough over the Southeast, an
upper ridge builds north over the eastern Conus. Deep layer
southerly flow becomes organized through the latter half of the
week, bringing Gulf moisture inland. The influx of moisture is
well west of the forecast area mid week, but shifts eastward into
the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs pass Friday through
Sunday. The upper ridge maintains enough strength to deflect the
bulk of the energy north of the forecast area, limiting best PoPs
to northwest and northern portions of the forecast area with each
passing trough, along with limiting rain chances to isolated to
low end scattered. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to
keep temperatures above to well above seasonal norms through the
period. High temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 well inland
with around 80s south of I-10 to the coast are expected. Low
temperatures are expected to range from around 60 to the low 60s
north of Highway 84 to mid 60s/upper 60s closer to and along the
coast. /16

MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Strong winds that resulted from a wake low Monday evening
are rapidly subsiding over the marine area. Seas offshore, up to
around 5 feet this morning, could be hazardous to small craft, but
by this afternoon and through the remainder of the week no hazards
are expected. Winds and seas will continue to decrease this morning,
with a light southwesterly flow anticipated by this afternoon. High
pressure passing over the area midweek will lead lighter and more
variable winds. A light onshore flow will then develop over the
marine area for the latter part of the week and into the early part
of the weekend. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  64  87  64  86  65  85  65 /  20   0  10   0   0   0  10  10
Pensacola   79  66  84  66  84  67  83  67 /  40   0  10   0   0   0   0  10
Destin      79  68  82  67  84  69  82  70 /  30   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   84  61  88  59  91  62  89  63 /  50   0  10   0   0   0  10  10
Waynesboro  84  60  88  60  90  63  86  63 /  10   0  10   0  10  10  20  10
Camden      82  61  86  59  90  63  86  63 /  30   0  10   0  10   0  10  20
Crestview   83  62  89  60  91  61  89  62 /  50  10  10   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
915 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

ALZ056-301500-
Conecuh AL-
915 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTY
THROUGH 1000 AM CDT...

At 914 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Evergreen, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Evergreen and I65 And US 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3129 8672 3138 8709 3153 8706 3153 8684
      3152 8682 3152 8670 3145 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1414Z 278DEG 12KT 3147 8699

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

16-WORSTER