Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Mobile, AL

764 
WWUS54 KMOB 120740
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
140 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

MSC153-120749-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-240212T0745Z/
Wayne MS-
140 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 145 AM CST...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3182 8894 3183 8876 3185 8865 3189 8847
      3183 8847 3171 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 0739Z 243DEG 51KT 3209 8833 

$$

JP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1137 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

An organized band of TSRA is set up to our west from the central
coast of LA, northeast up across central MS and AL. The forecast
calls for the overnight period to have cigs primarily below 500'
and vsby to be variable ranging 1 to 4 miles. Potentially periods
of vsby dropping off to below a mile at times possible. Shra/tsra
increasing in coverage as we go through the night to daybreak
bringing potential delays to approaches and departures. Cold front
sweeps thru the central Gulf coast between 12.15 and 12.21Z
Monday, bringing wind shift and higher gusts. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1109 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/

..New NEAR TERM...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

The southern stream shows a large positive tilt upper level trof
migrating eastward over the Red River Valley of TX/OK, putting the
Lower MS River valley in a favored diffluent flow aloft. Combined
with a right entrance region of a speed max at high altitudes of
140+ knots from central TN to the Mid-Atlantic is forcing deep
convection along a warm front draped from central LA eastward to
central GA. Deep convection has remained off to the west, lifting
northeast from the central LA coast up across central MS into
central AL through the evening. Sfc based convective energy has
improved to between 500 and 1500 J/KG south of US Highway 84 and
along with effective bulk shear magnitudes from 60 to 70 kts has
the local environment primed for the potential of severe weather
overnight. The convective allowing high resolution models indicate
a resurgence in thunderstorm coverage overnight as next wave of
energy aloft makes passage across the area. All modes of severe
weather possible. Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, large hail
and perhaps isolated tornadoes given favorable 0-3 km helicity
values from 150-300 m2/s2. A cold front sweeps across the central
Gulf coast from mid morning to mid afternoon Monday, bringing an
end to the severe weather risk with its passage. A high risk of
dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents exists along with
high surf through the near term. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      61  69  38  60  36  63  42  68 /  90  90   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   63  69  42  60  39  63  46  67 /  70  90   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      64  70  45  61  42  63  49  66 /  70  90   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   62  71  38  60  33  66  39  69 /  80  90   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  58  68  37  60  33  65  39  67 /  80  70   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      61  69  38  58  33  65  39  67 /  90  90   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   63  72  41  61  33  65  39  69 /  70  90   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from noon Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from noon Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     GMZ670-675.

&&

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