River Flood Warning 9, NWS Mobile, AL

846 
WGUS84 KMOB 261534
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
934 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Perry, Greene and George Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.




&&

MSC039-041-111-271545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T1200Z.240130T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
934 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Considerable flooding of agricultural and 
  lowlands near the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM CST Friday the stage was 17.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow morning and continue rising to a crest of 19.5 feet
    early Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

JP

889 
WGUS84 KMOB 270343
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
943 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Perry, George and Greene Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.




&&

MSC039-041-111-280345-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T1200Z.240130T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
943 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Considerable flooding of agricultural and 
  lowlands near the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 PM CST Friday the stage was 17.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow morning and continue rising to a crest of 19.5 feet
    early Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

655 
WGUS84 KMOB 271642
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1042 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Perry, George and Greene Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.




&&

MSC039-041-111-281645-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240129T1600Z.240131T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1042 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Considerable flooding of agricultural and 
  lowlands near the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:15 AM CST Saturday the stage was 17.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Monday morning and continue rising to a crest of 19.5
    feet Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

JP

509 
WGUS84 KMOB 280248
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
848 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George, Greene and Perry Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.




&&

MSC039-041-111-290300-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T2248Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T0000Z.240201T1648Z.NO/
848 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM CST Saturday the stage was 18.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.5
    feet Monday evening. It will then fall below flood stage late
    Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    20.5 feet on 02/12/1981.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

420 
WGUS84 KMOB 281629
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1029 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Greene, Perry and George Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-111-291630-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T2100Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T0600Z.240201T1300Z.NO/
1029 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:15 AM CST Sunday the stage was 19.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.5
    feet early Tuesday morning. The river is forecast to fall
    below the flood stage of 18 feet by Thursday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

21/CLL

841 
WGUS84 KMOB 290138
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
738 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Perry, Greene and George Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-111-300145-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T1900Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T0600Z.240201T1300Z.NO/
738 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until early Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:15 PM CST Sunday the stage was 19.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.5
    feet early Tuesday morning. It will then fall below flood
    stage Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

154 
WGUS84 KMOB 291337
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
737 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George, Perry and Greene Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-111-301345-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T1900Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T0600Z.240201T1300Z.NO/
737 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until early Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, considerable flooding of agricultural and 
  lowlands near the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:15 AM CST Monday the stage was 20.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:15 AM CST Monday was 20.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.5
    feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
    flood stage Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

571 
WGUS84 KMOB 291655
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1055 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Perry, Greene and George Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-111-301700-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T2015Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T1200Z.240201T1415Z.NO/
1055 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until early Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:15 AM CST Monday the stage was 20.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.3
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

015 
WGUS84 KMOB 300549
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1149 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Greene, George and Perry Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-111-310600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T1400Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T1200Z.240201T0800Z.NO/
1149 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 PM CST Monday the stage was 20.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.3
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

709 
WGUS84 KMOB 301443
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
843 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Perry, George and Greene Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-111-311445-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T1400Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T1800Z.240201T0800Z.NO/
843 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 AM CST Tuesday the stage was 20.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.3
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

270 
WGUS84 KMOB 310150
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
750 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Perry, Greene and George Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-111-010200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T1400Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T1100Z.240201T0800Z.NO/
750 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:15 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 20.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage by
    early Thursday morning and continue falling to 8.9 feet
    Sunday evening.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

285 
WGUS84 KMOB 311717
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George, Greene and Perry Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-111-011730-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T2248Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T1100Z.240201T1648Z.NO/
1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Considerable flooding of agricultural and 
  lowlands near the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:15 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 19.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow morning and continue falling to 8.1 feet Monday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

531 
WGUS84 KMOB 010053
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George, Perry and Greene Counties.

For the Leaf River...including Mclain, New Augusta...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

MSC039-041-111-012300-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T2248Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T1100Z.240201T1648Z.NO/
653 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Leaf near Mclain.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Considerable flooding of agricultural and 
  lowlands near the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:15 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 19.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow morning and continue falling to 7.4 feet Monday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

153 
WGUS84 KMOB 011844
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1244 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Leaf Near Mclain affecting Greene, Perry and George Counties.

MSC039-041-111-011945-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240201T1844Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.240127T2145Z.240130T1100Z.240201T1130Z.NO/
1244 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Leaf Near Mclain.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:15 PM CST Thursday the stage was 17.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 6.7 feet Tuesday
    morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8892 3123 8892 3116 8877 3100 8871
      3098 8879 3109 8884


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
801 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

Updated the zone forecast package to remove headlines of the Flood
Watch that was valid for interior southeast MS and parts of southwest
AL, which expired at 6 PM. Some light rain continues to fall across
a portion of that area, but totals will not be enough to result in
any additional flooding issues this evening.

There could be an uptick in precipitation across the area again
late tonight, possibly as early as 3-4 AM but some models indicate
timing of this next round to be more after sunrise tomorrow
(Friday) morning. Models indicate that there could be several
rounds of precipitation tomorrow. There will be some elevated
instability that may help to lead to some deeper convection that
could produce heavy rainfall, which could again lead to some
localized flooding concern, mainly over urban/poor drainage areas.
It should be noted, though, that the overall flash flood threat
will likely be lower than the past few days. Convection late
tonight and tomorrow morning will likely remain elevated due the
rain-cooled airmass weakening low-level lapse rates, however, mid-
level lapse rates of around 7 C/km will allow for instability to
remain in place above 850 mb.

Otherwise, forecast for the remainder of tonight looks to be on
track. Dense fog should begin to redevelop later this evening and
into the overnight hours. HREF probabilities do suggest that this
dense fog will likely spread into southwest Alabama and southeast
Mississippi tonight, and therefore have issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for Washington, Mobile and Baldwin counties, as well as
all of our southeast Mississippi counties from midnight tonight
through 9AM tomorrow. DS/12

&&

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 801 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

Mostly stratiform rain continues across portions of the forecast
area this evening, with MVFR (or lower) ceilings in rain areas,
but overall ceilings have improved to VFR for much of the area
this evening. Rains have cleared out the more widespread dense fog
in many locations this evening as well, but with return flow
redeveloping late tonight into tomorrow morning, with the very
cool marine waters of the bays and just offshore, it appears that
areas of dense fog will redevelop across portions of the region
tonight. This will be especially true near the coast and over the
local marine area. There are some uncertainties, but ceilings and
vsbys will likely lower to IFR and even LIFR in some areas again
late tonight, especially near the coast. Winds will generally be
light south to southeast overnight. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 438 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

A series of embedded shortwave impulses continues to push within
deep southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, an outflow boundary
has exited our easternmost counties. Behind it, light to moderate
stratiform rain (with occasional rumbles of thunder) is falling
over much of the area. This rain should begin to diminish during
the evening hours due to synoptic forcing exiting our region.
Conditions may actually dry out for a few hours during the late
evening and into the early morning hours before the next shortwave
impulse approaches by around 3 to 4am. As this next shortwave
moves in, another slug of moisture will push in from the Gulf with
PWATs increasing back to 1.5 to 1.8 inches. This will allow for
another round of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
to spread over the region. Convection tonight will likely remain
elevated due the rain-cooled airmass weakening low-level lapse
rates, however, mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km will allow
for instability to remain in place above 850 mb. This elevated
instability may help to lead to some deeper convection that could
produce heavy rainfall. This could lead to a localized flooding
concern, mainly over urban/poor drainage areas. It should be
noted, though, that the overall flash flood threat is lower than
previous days. This is because the heaviest rainfall is expected
to develop over locations along and east of I-65, where soils are
not as saturated as locations to the west. Therefore, being that
the flash flood threat is quite limited/localized, decided against
extending the Flash Flood Watch. PoPs will gradually decrease
from west to east by Friday afternoon.

Outside of showers and storms, the persistent flow of moist
southerly air over cool near shore waters will continue to promote
sea fog development, and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in
place for area bays, sounds, and nearshore waters through at least
Saturday morning. There is some signal that visibilities may
briefly improve later this afternoon and into the evening hours as
the rain- cooled air behind the outflow boundary moves across the
marine zones. However, with the next slug of moisture pushing in
from the southwest, dense fog should begin to redevelop later this
evening and into the overnight hours. HREF probabilities do
suggest that this dense fog will likely spread into southwest
Alabama and southeast Mississippi tonight, and therefore have
issued a Dense Fog Advisory for Washington, Mobile and Baldwin
counties, as well as all of our southeast Mississippi counties
from midnight tonight through 9AM tomorrow. We will monitor model
trends and observations closely over the coming hours, and will
reassess the need to expand this advisory to additional counties.
Fog should scour out after sunrise for inland communities, however
similar to the past few days, fog may possibly remain in place
through much of the day for areas along and south of the I-10
corridor over southwest AL. /96

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 438 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

A longwave upper trough over the central/southern Great Plains
will moves eastward toward the Mississippi River by late Saturday
afternoon, and slip east of the river Saturday night into Sunday.
A series of upper shortwaves and impulses will continue to
progress over the region through Saturday afternoon, followed by
the wide base of the longwave trough settling across the Deep
South Saturday night into Sunday. The longwave trough will then
move off the East Coast by late Sunday night. A northwesterly flow
aloft will return with the passing of the trough, with much drier
and cooler air flowing into the area in the wake of the cold
front.

Plenty of deep-layer moisture will remain in place with PWATs
ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches. Numerous to widespread showers,
along with a chance of thunderstorms, will also persist Friday
night through Saturday morning, followed by decreasing PoPs from
west to east in the afternoon and evening hours. Periods of local
heavy rainfall will be possible in areas where deeper convection
is realized. The potential for strong or severe storms is mainly
expected to occur during the day on Saturday when MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg will develop ahead of a cold front, along with an
850 mb jet of 40-50 knots which provides for plenty of favorable
shear. Our area will also reside near the right-entrance region of
an 85 knot upper-level jet maximum. Model soundings continue to
show unfavorable lower level lapse rates early Saturday morning,
but this improves with daytime heating. SPC has a Slight Risk
Outlook of severe thunderstorms across south central Alabama, with
a Marginal Risk covering the remainder of our Alabama and western
Florida Panhandle zones. We will continue to monitor this
situation.

Advective type fog will likely continue to be an issue mainly for
coastal areas and the southern half of the forecast area as warm
and moist air continues to flow across cool near shore and bay
waters. Additional Dense Fog Advisories may be needed across the
southern half of the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. A
cold front should advance through the forecast area Saturday
night, bringing an end to the rainy and foggy conditions. A high
risk of rip currents is expected through Saturday night, becoming
moderate on Sunday and Sunday night in the wake of the cold front.
Lows Friday night will be mostly around 60 degrees, dropping into
the mid to upper 40s Saturday night, and in the mid to upper 30s
Sunday night. Highs on Saturday will range from 70 to 75 degrees,
but only reach the mid to upper 50s on Sunday. /22

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 438 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

The dry period is expected to last through Thursday as the
northwesterly flow aloft is reinforced as another upper shortwave
advances from the Midwest States to the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday
through midweek. High temperatures on Monday in the mid to upper
50s should slowly climb back into the low to mid 60s on Wednesday
and Thursday. Low temperatures on Monday night will be in the
30s, with the exception of near 40 degrees at the coast. Lows will
only warm by a few degrees through the remainder of the long term.
/22

MARINE...
Issued at 438 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

Dense sea fog will persist across portions of Mobile Bay, the
Mississippi Sound, and Gulf waters out to 20 nm off and on through
Saturday. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through at
least Saturday morning, and would likely need to be extended
another day in future updates. Otherwise, light to moderate
southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through Friday.
Expect winds to turn westerly on Saturday and northwesterly on
Sunday behind a cold front. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      61  69  61  70  47  57  37  59 /  80  90  70  90  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   63  69  62  70  50  58  41  58 /  80  90  60  80  20   0   0   0
Destin      64  69  63  70  53  61  44  60 /  70  90  50  80  40   0   0   0
Evergreen   61  71  60  73  46  55  37  58 /  70  90  70  90  30   0   0   0
Waynesboro  59  69  59  73  44  54  35  58 /  80  70  80  90  10   0   0   0
Camden      60  70  60  71  45  53  36  55 /  70  90  70 100  20   0   0   0
Crestview   63  72  61  73  48  58  37  59 /  80  90  60  90  40   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     ALZ052-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>636-650-
     655.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
344 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

ALZ060-FLZ205-206-252230-
Covington AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
344 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CST...

At 343 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles north of Opp to 5 miles northwest of
Lockhart to 6 miles northwest of Wright. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview, Niceville, Opp, Valparaiso, Florala, Laurel Hill, and
Lockhart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3048 8639 3047 8676 3143 8623
      3143 8620 3100 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 274DEG 34KT 3137 8625 3107 8641 3054 8670

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH