River Flood Warning 56, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
520 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Earlier showers and thunderstorms have exited the area, leaving
VFR conditions at the terminals. Northwesterly winds will persist
through the day, becoming calm overnight. /73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

A line of strong to severe storms continues to push eastward, just
about out of the forecast area. Drier air will filter into the area
in the wake of this line, as an upper trough swings through the
southeastern CONUS. A cold front, trailing southward from its parent
low over the Great Lakes, will move eastward today, exiting the area
by this afternoon. Despite a quick northerly shift in surface winds,
winds will shift back to the south on Monday. This will delay a
colder airmass reaching the area, with mild conditions through the
near term period. Expect highs today and on Monday to warm into the
upper 60s to lower 70s.  Overnight lows will fall into the mid to
upper 40s tonight, as calm winds and clear skies aid in radiational
cooling. /73

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 411 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

A second trough will dig into the Mississippi Valley Monday night,
with southwest flow aloft. This, combined with the southerly surface
flow will keep overnight lows in the 50s for much of the area. The
trough will quickly move through the region on Tuesday, with a
surface cold front moving east of the area by Tuesday evening. Given
the lack of return flow and moisture, this front will be dry.
Temperatures will depend on how quickly winds become northerly, as
CAA brings colder air into the region. At this point, with the
front moving through later in the day, highs will likely reach
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The colder airmass will build
into the region Tuesday night, with temperatures dropping into the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Upper troughing will persist through much
of the work week, with northerly flow at the surface. Thus,
expect dry conditions to continue through the remainder of the
week. Highs will be in the 50s each afternoon, with overnight lows
falling into the upper 20s to upper 30s. /73

MARINE...
Issued at 411 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Winds will slowly shift to the northwest through the day in the
wake of a cold front. A brief shift to onshore flow is anticipated
for Monday, before winds shift back to the northwest as a
secondary front moves through the marine zones. A light to
moderate offshore flow will then persist through the remainder of
the week. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  47  69  56  72  41  60  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   71  50  69  61  71  44  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      74  54  71  63  74  46  62  41 /  20   0   0  10   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   71  44  72  53  71  39  59  31 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  67  44  69  53  67  38  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      67  44  68  53  67  38  55  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   75  44  73  53  75  40  62  33 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until noon CST today for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until noon CST today for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
205 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Lyeffion          31.56N 86.98W
12/28/2024                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous trees down in the Lyeffion
            community and north along Hwy 83. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

JFB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
210 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

FLZ202>206-290900-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-
Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
210 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA...SOUTHERN
SANTA ROSA AND SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM CST...

At 210 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Roeville to 9 miles
southwest of Pensacola Beach. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Warrington, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Point Baker,
Brent, Oriole Beach, Navarre Beach, Pea Ridge, Goulding, Ferry Pass,
Pace, Roeville, Bagdad, Floridatown, Milton, Navarre, and Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for northwestern
Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 3080 8660 3035 8675 3028 8735 3078 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 250DEG 39KT 3074 8696 3025 8726

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
253 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Buckatunna              31.54N 88.53W
12/28/2024                   Wayne              MS   Public

            Shingles off a roof, trees down, and a shed
            destroyed. Time and location estimated.

&&

JFB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
257 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Yarbo                   31.55N 88.28W
12/28/2024                   Washington         AL   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Downed flag pole at church along with
            several trees downed in the road. Reported
            by Yarbo Fire Department.

&&

JFB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
306 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Barnett Crossroad 31.23N 87.30W
12/28/2024                   Escambia           AL   Emergency Mngr

            The roofs of several cabins were ripped off
            on Barnett Rd. Time estimated.

&&

JFB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
315 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     Tornado          1 ENE Summerdale        30.49N 87.69W
12/29/2024                   Baldwin            AL   Public

            Significant roof damage to a home on NE 7th
            Street in Summerdale. Trees and power lines
            down as well. Likely tornado based on radar
            TDS.

&&

JFB