High Surf Advisory 5, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1236 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

MVFR to IFR ceilings continue to spread across the region at
issuance time. These ceilings will continue through the afternoon
and evening hours before lowering further to LIFR for the late
evening and overnight timeframe. Sea fog development will once
again be possible tonight, likely spreading inland throughout the
night. Some of this fog may be dense, especially for areas close
to the coast. Additionally, coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will increase tonight especially as we get into the overnight
hours. Expect brief reductions in visibility in some of the
heavier activity. A few strong storms, capable of producing gusty,
erratic winds, large hail, and possibly a few tornadoes will also
be possible. This activity will end from west to east during the
late morning hours as a cold front pushes through the region. /96

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1236 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

An upper low advances across the south central states through Monday
morning, then moves to near the Arkansas/Tennessee border Monday
afternoon. An associated surface low is currently located over
eastern Texas with a frontal boundary extending to across central
Mississippi and northern Alabama. The surface low advances to near
the Arkansas/Mississippi border late tonight before continuing into
eastern Kentucky late in the period, and in the process brings a
strong cold front through the forecast area on Monday. A series of
shortwaves continue to move across the forecast area ahead of the
approaching cold front. Timing the best deep layer lift associated
with this pattern has become increasingly difficult which in turn
makes for low confidence with how the associated convection will
play out. Indicated MLCAPE values could be as high as 1000-1500 J/kg
tonight into tomorrow (but will more likely be up to near 1000 J/kg)
before the front moves through, but model soundings continue to
exhibit characteristics that could hamper convective development.
The low confidence with the pattern also applies to how the model
soundings will evolve, but for the most part there are three main
concerns until the front moves through. The first is that there is a
tendency for unfavorable low level lapse rates which means that
convection may struggle to access much of the favorable low level
shear. The second is that a mid level warm layer is indicated for
much of the area before eroding from west to east late tonight into
early Monday morning. The third concern is that the column will
likely be steadily moistening which means that mid level dry air
essential for supporting a severe weather risk looks increasingly
dubious. The bottom line is that there is low confidence for how
convection will evolve, and as a consequence, the potential for
severe storms. CAMS (Convection Allowing Models) do indicate some
stronger storms developing but for the most part look to remain
below severe limits, adding to the low confidence for severe storm
development. It was noted that surf heights will be building on
Monday, so have opted to issue a High Surf Advisory which will be in
effect from 18Z Monday until 12Z Tuesday for surf heights of 5 to 7
feet. A marine Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect for Mobile Bay
and the Mississippi Sound until 6 am Monday, and will need to
monitor for the potential for dense fog to develop overnight, mainly
near the coast. Lows tonight will be rather mild and range from
around 60 to the lower 60s. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. A High Risk of rip currents continues through Monday.
/29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      61  68  40  60  37  64  42  68 /  90  80   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   63  68  43  59  40  63  45  66 /  80  90   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      64  68  45  61  44  64  49  66 /  80  90  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   62  70  39  59  35  66  39  69 /  90  90  10   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  59  68  38  59  35  66  39  68 /  90  60   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      61  70  38  57  34  64  37  67 /  90  90   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   64  72  39  61  35  66  39  69 /  80  90  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

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