Tornado Warning 28, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
121 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Convection associated with Hurricane Milton continues to affect
all of Central Florida. Coverage of thunderstorms is increasing as
bands move northward from South Florida. Have at least VCTS
mentioned in all TAFS with some tempo TSRA. CIGS have been
bouncing in and out of MVFR, but at times of issuance most sites
are in an MVFR condition and expect abundance MVFR conditions
through the remainder of the period.

In terms of winds, Moderate east to northeasterly winds persist
this afternoon with a substantial increase from west to east
mainly after 00Z. Winds are going to be very strong for all sites
overnight with the current track bringing the worst conditions to
ISM and MLB. Shifts are still possible in the track so haven't
gotten too specific with timing/strength of the peak winds, just
expect dangerous flying conditions throughout the area overnight
tonight and into Thursday morning. Have noted a slight decrease in
wind speeds toward the end of the period for inland locations, but
will remain gusty.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Key Messages...

- Hurricane preparations should be rushed to completion this
  morning! Conditions will become more dangerous through the day
  and into tonight, and residents and visitors should prepare to
  shelter in place no later than late afternoon.

- This will likely be a rare and historic event for portions of
  east central Florida, please take this storm seriously!

- Please follow any recommended evacuation and or sheltering
  actions for those in flood prone locations, mobile homes, or on
  the barrier islands. The time to locate a safe shelter is now!

- Devastating and life-threatening impacts from winds and
  flooding rainfall will occur from Milton, especially through
  tonight and continuing into Thursday as Milton crosses central
  Florida. The threat of several tornadoes and storm surge along
  portions of the coast will occur as well.

Latest update from the NHC is that Milton is a strong and
extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and is lifting quickly
northeast. Milton is forecast to continue to be a powerful major
hurricane as it makes landfall around midnight tonight along the
west-central Florida coast. Warm frontal boundary lifting north
across the area will lead to widespread rainfall, heavy at times,
and embedded storms, especially across areas near to north of a
line from the Orlando metro to the Cape. Localized to areas of
urban, low-lying, and poor drainage flooding will already be
possible, especially across this region through today, and will
make any last minute preparations difficult. In addition,
increasing helicity and some added daytime instability south of
Orlando this morning will begin to increase the threat of
tornadoes through late morning and afternoon, and a Tornado Watch
is now in effect for Osceola, Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie
and Martin counties, as well as the adjacent Atlantic waters
through 9 PM EDT. The threat for tornadoes will continue to expand
northward across east central Florida with time through this
afternoon and into this evening, so additional expansions in the
watch will likely be necessary.

Residents and visitors should rush preparations to completion this
morning, and will want to begin to shelter in place no later than
late afternoon for the duration of the event. The greatest impacts
from Milton will occur into tonight and continue through tomorrow
as Milton crosses central FL. Dangerous hurricane conditions will
persist on the back side of the system, especially along coastal
counties as it pushes offshore the east central FL coast into
Thursday afternoon.

For more details on the significant impacts Milton will bring to
east central Florida today through Thursday, please refer to the
latest Hurricane Milton Local Statement.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the entire adjacent
Atlantic waters. Boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous,
with conditions deteriorating further and becoming extremely
dangerous late today through the remainder of the week as Milton
crosses the area. Initial onshore winds 10-16 kts increasing to
15-20 kts early this afternoon and 20-25 kts by early this
evening. Initial seas 5-7 ft and occasionally up to 8 ft (Gulf
Stream) will build 6-9 ft into early evening. Small craft should
also continue to Exercise Caution near inlets during the outgoing
tide early to mid morning and again early to mid evening. This is
due to persistent easterly long period swells. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated lightning storms will become
widespread during the morning and thru tonight as a boundary
retreats northward across the area and ahead of Major Hurricane
Milton. Strong northerly-component winds are forecast to maintain
dangerously high seas through at least Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  82  73  81 / 100  90  60  40
MCO  75  80  72  81 / 100  80  50  30
MLB  77  85  75  83 /  90  80  60  30
VRB  77  85  75  84 /  90  70  60  30
LEE  73  80  68  81 / 100  70  40  20
SFB  74  81  72  81 / 100  80  50  30
ORL  76  82  72  82 / 100  80  50  30
FPR  77  85  75  84 /  90  70  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-
     254-259-347-447-547-647-747.

     Tornado Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for FLZ053-058-154-159-
     164-254-259-264.

     Flood Watch through Thursday evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-
     141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ141-447-747.

     Hurricane Watch for FLZ164-264.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ164-264.

AM...Hurricane Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

     Tornado Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555.

&&

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1223 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 PM     Tornado          Port Mayaca             26.99N 80.62W
10/09/2024                   Martin             FL   Public

            Multiple reports of a tornado along the
            eastern shore of Lake Okeechobee near Port
            Mayaca.

&&

JS