Tornado Warning 25, NWS Melbourne, FL

106 
WWUS52 KMLB 091643
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1243 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

FLC085-093-111-091700-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-241009T1700Z/
St. Lucie FL-Okeechobee FL-Martin FL-
1243 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...SOUTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND WEST CENTRAL
MARTIN COUNTIES...

At 1243 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near J And S Fish
Camp, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern St. Lucie, southeastern Okeechobee and west central
Martin Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move
to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2712 8062 2712 8068 2714 8069 2717 8073
      2729 8076 2728 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 179DEG 22KT 2718 8062 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

Fehling

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1110 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Key Messages...

- Hurricane preparations should be rushed to completion this
  morning! Conditions will become more dangerous through the day
  and into tonight, and residents and visitors should prepare to
  shelter in place no later than late afternoon.

- This will likely be a rare and historic event for portions of
  east central Florida, please take this storm seriously!

- Please follow any recommended evacuation and or sheltering
  actions for those in flood prone locations, mobile homes, or on
  the barrier islands. The time to locate a safe shelter is now!

- Devastating and life-threatening impacts from winds and
  flooding rainfall will occur from Milton, especially through
  tonight and continuing into Thursday as Milton crosses central
  Florida. The threat of several tornadoes and storm surge along
  portions of the coast will occur as well.

Latest update from the NHC is that Milton is a strong and
extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and is lifting quickly
northeast. Milton is forecast to continue to be a powerful major
hurricane as it makes landfall around midnight tonight along the
west-central Florida coast. Warm frontal boundary lifting north
across the area will lead to widespread rainfall, heavy at times,
and embedded storms, especially across areas near to north of a
line from the Orlando metro to the Cape. Localized to areas of
urban, low-lying, and poor drainage flooding will already be
possible, especially across this region through today, and will
make any last minute preparations difficult. In addition,
increasing helicity and some added daytime instability south of
Orlando this morning will begin to increase the threat of
tornadoes through late morning and afternoon, and a Tornado Watch
is now in effect for Osceola, Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie
and Martin counties, as well as the adjacent Atlantic waters
through 9 PM EDT. The threat for tornadoes will continue to expand
northward across east central Florida with time through this
afternoon and into this evening, so additional expansions in the
watch will likely be necessary.

Residents and visitors should rush preparations to completion this
morning, and will want to begin to shelter in place no later than
late afternoon for the duration of the event. The greatest impacts
from Milton will occur into tonight and continue through tomorrow
as Milton crosses central FL. Dangerous hurricane conditions will
persist on the back side of the system, especially along coastal
counties as it pushes offshore the east central FL coast into
Thursday afternoon.

For more details on the significant impacts Milton will bring to
east central Florida today through Thursday, please refer to the
latest Hurricane Milton Local Statement.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...All counties across east central Florida remain under either a
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning, with a Storm Surge Warning
along the coastline of Volusia and Brevard counties...

...Residents and visitors should prepare for hurricane force winds,
especially in gusts, widespread flooding impacts with flash and
river flooding likely near to north of the center where Milton
tracks, a few tornadoes, and battering surf and storm surge along
portions of the coast. Conditions will deteriorate through tonight
and linger through Thursday into Thursday night...

...Hurricane preparations should be rushed to completion no later
than this morning! Flooding rainfall and isolated tornado impacts
from Milton could begin as early as this morning!...

Current-Thursday...The former frontal boundary across south FL will
continue to lift northward across ECFL this morning and into this
afternoon with a gradual increase in showers and isolated storms
overnight thru early this morning. Rainfall may still be light to
moderate with pockets of heavier downpours producing 1-2 inches,
and potential for localized flooding issues through and past
daybreak, especially along the coast. Already deep moisture in
place across the area will continue to deepen as PWATs soar to
2.30-2.60 inches areawide ahead of approaching Major Hurricane
Milton.

Milton will continue to lift northeastward this morning and during
the day most likely making landfall near or just after midnight
across WCFL as a strong Cat 3 or low-end Cat 4 Hurricane. It will
then continue a fairly quick northeast track moving across Osceola
and Brevard counties, exiting the coast around noon or early
afternoon on Thu. While Milton will lose some of its intensity as it
pushes inland, it will still remain a formidable hurricane as it
traverses the state.

We can expect multiple rounds of moderate to heavy precip across the
area today into tonight ahead of Milton. This will lead to some
flooding issues this morning and afternoon. There will be a threat
of increasing tornado potential as low-level wind shear becomes
increasingly conducive for rotation, not only later this morning,
but especially in the afternoon and into this evening. Conditions
will be favorable for development of supercells with discrete
movement and a strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out!

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Enhanced Risk for
severe storms from near Lake Okeechobee northward to across
Orlando. A Slight Risk bookends this Enhanced Risk across our far
southern coverage warning area and across the I-4 corridor
northward. Aside from the heavy rainfall and flooding potential,
other primary storm threats will include cloud-to-ground lightning
strikes, and strong and damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

ERLY winds approach 15 mph during the day with frequent higher gusts
this afternoon, and conditions gradually worsening tonight. Greatest
impacts with Milton will be late today thru tonight and into the
day on Thu. Strong tropical storm conditions with gusts to
hurricane-force are forecast, with a swath of sustained hurricane
force winds likely near the center of the storm. Strong tropical
storm-force winds and hurricane gusts may persist for a longer
period, esp along the coast - most notable Brevard and Volusia
counties as Milton moves offshore. Most likely arrival time for
tropical storm-force winds are this evening.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of east central
Florida, except a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch for
Martin County. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for the coast
of Brevard and Volusia counties, with storm surge values up to 3-5
ft forecast. Farther south along the Treasure Coast, surge values up
to 1-3 ft are expected to occur.

The heaviest rain associated with Milton is expected to occur near
to north of the center. Total rainfall today through Thu night of 6
to 12 inches is forecast near and north of Orlando to Melbourne,
with locally higher totals up to 15 inches possible. To the south,
rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are forecast and locally higher
possible. Rain intensity will quickly diminish Thu night as
Milton moves off of the east FL coast and departs the area. With
heaviest rainfall generally forecast across northern portions of
east central Florida this may lead to considerable flooding
impacts along the St. John's River, with flash flooding likely,
especially across the urban I-4 corridor. The Flood Watch has been
extended across the area through Thu evening.

For additional details related to Hurricane Milton's impacts across
the area, please refer to the Hurricane Milton Local Statement.

Fri-Tue...Milton will become extratropical in the Atlc as it pushes
further north/east away from the peninsula. Cooler and drier air are
forecast to push down the peninsula, though we will see a gradual
return of deeper moisture, once again, Mon-Tue. Expect diminishing
winds after a breezy/gusty day on Fri and lower rain chances will
result. We may still see isolated-scattered (20-30pct) shower
activity and perhaps an isolated lightning storm as well on Fri,
though it appears most areas will remain dry - esp this weekend.
Surface high pressure will build into the Deep South and southeast
U.S. on a weakening trend, with a frontal boundary forecast to move
into the area Mon overnight or Tue. Highs for Fri, U70s to around
80F across the I-4 corridor and L80s southward. For Sat-Tue, max
temps begin to creep back toward the L80s and M80s. Lows more
pleasant than recent mornings, with min's cooler and in the M-U60s
across the interior and L70s at the coast. Some normally cooler
locations across the interior may realize L60s!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 738 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Rain has spread across much of the area with a mix of VFR and MVFR
CIGS. TAF sites south of MLB look to have less coverage of
convection than other sites through much of today. Winds will
increase steadily through the period as Hurricane Milton
approaches the Florida gulf coast and then pushes across the
Peninsula. Through this period winds will be mainly out of the
east and southeast, though have indicated a wind shift to the
north at MCO for Thursday morning as the storm center moves into
central Florida. Expect primarily MVFR CIGS through much of this
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the entire adjacent
Atlantic waters. Boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous,
with conditions deteriorating further and becoming extremely
dangerous late today through the remainder of the week as Milton
crosses the area. Initial onshore winds 10-16 kts increasing to
15-20 kts early this afternoon and 20-25 kts by early this
evening. Initial seas 5-7 ft and occasionally up to 8 ft (Gulf
Stream) will build 6-9 ft into early evening. Small craft should
also continue to Exercise Caution near inlets during the outgoing
tide early to mid morning and again early to mid evening. This is
due to persistent easterly long period swells. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated lightning storms will become
widespread during the morning and thru tonight as a boundary
retreats northward across the area and ahead of Major Hurricane
Milton. Strong northerly-component winds are forecast to maintain
dangerously high seas through at least Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  75  82  73 / 100 100  90  60
MCO  81  75  80  72 / 100 100  80  50
MLB  85  77  85  75 /  90  90  80  60
VRB  86  77  85  75 /  90  90  70  60
LEE  78  73  80  68 / 100 100  70  40
SFB  80  74  81  72 / 100 100  80  50
ORL  81  76  82  72 / 100 100  80  50
FPR  86  77  85  75 /  90  90  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-
     254-259-347-447-547-647-747.

     Tornado Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for FLZ053-058-154-159-
     164-254-259-264.

     Flood Watch through Thursday evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-
     141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ141-447-747.

     Hurricane Watch for FLZ164-264.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ164-264.

AM...Hurricane Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

     Tornado Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555.

&&

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...NWS Corpus Christi

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1223 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 PM     Tornado          Port Mayaca             26.99N 80.62W
10/09/2024                   Martin             FL   Public

            Multiple reports of a tornado along the
            eastern shore of Lake Okeechobee near Port
            Mayaca.

&&

JS