Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
358 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Key Messages...

-Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms forecast
 Sunday into next week, with greatest coverage still focused
 across the interior.

-Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal this
 weekend through next week, with humid conditions leading to peak
 heat index values around 102-107 each day.

Thru Tonight...Boundary collisions over the interior combined with
some upper support shifting S/SW across the area will produce
numerous showers and storms through sunset. Locally heavy rain
producing 2-4 inches will be possible along with frequent
lightning strikes and strong wind gusts. Steering flow will be
largely toward the S so push back to the east coast looks
unlikely so most coastal communities will remain dry thru the eve.
Bulk of the convection over land should end around or shortly
after sunset. A weak mid level trough will drop south over the
Bahamas and should produce a better chance for convection to
develop over the Atlc waters offshore the Treasure coast overnight
and some of these may push onshore before sunrise.

Sunday...A little stronger and deeper onshore (east) flow will
push the east coast sea breeze inland a little faster and a tongue
of slightly drier air is forecast to push SW into northern
sections. The best chance for morning showers and isolated storms
will be over southern sections shifting to the interior during the
afternoon. Have capped PoPs at 60 percent along the Treasure coast
and interior and 50 percent along Volusia and Brevard coasts and
this may be generous. Max temps close to seasonal norms ranging
from the upper 80s immediate coast to the lower 90s inland. High
dewpoints though will continue to produce peak heat indices of
102-106 esp across northern sections.

Mon-Sat...(modified) Atlantic subtropical ridge axis is forecast
to remain across the area into early next week as a weak front
moves into the southeast U.S. and stalls across north FL. Low
level winds become more southerly Monday and Tuesday then veer
more onshore into mid week as high pressure shifts offshore the
eastern U.S. coast. NHC forecasts TC Beryl to continue to plow
west- northwest through the Caribbean Sea during this time.

Sea breeze will form each afternoon and move inland, with scattered
showers and storms forecast to develop during the afternoon and
evening hours along and inland of this boundary. However, greatest
rain chances will remain across the interior where boundary
collisions are favored to occur. PoPs are forecast to lower to
40-50 percent along the coast and 50-60 percent inland early to
middle portion of next week. Some drier air building into the area
later into the week, and strengthening onshore flow may then lead
to a continued decrease in storm coverage, and have rain chances
falling to 40-50 percent across the area into Thursday and Friday.
Still can't rule out a few stronger storms each day, with main
threats being lightning strikes, strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

Highs will reach the lower 90s early next week. Temps then
continue to increase toward mid to late week as ridge aloft
extends eastward across the area, with highs in the mid 90s
forecast across portions of the interior, mainly near to northwest
of I-4. Humid conditions will continue to produce peak heat index
values during the afternoon around 102-107. Warm and muggy
conditions continue during the overnight hours, with lows in the
70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain across the area
maintaining favorable boating conditions. Light and variable
winds expected again into Sunday morning, but flow will develop a
more southerly component next week. Winds will become onshore
each afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, with speeds around
10 knots each afternoon. Seas around 2 feet Sun-Mon will increase
up to 3 feet offshore by mid week. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will continue to be possible over the coastal waters
through the period. A higher coverage of showers and storms are
possible Sunday morning esp south of Sebastian Inlet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are forecast outside of convection. Slightly slower
start to showers and storms today, with VCTS activity picking up
after 18-19Z. TEMPOs across the interior terminals from 19-22Z
for lowered CIGs down to FL035 and MVFR VIS due to TSRA. Would not
be surprised if CIGs drop to MVFR, but will amend as needed.
Lower confidence in coverage along the coast, so took out TEMPOs
at TIX and MLB with this package, and continued to leave them out
at the Treasure Coast terminals and DAB. Will continue to monitor
this and amend as necessary. Storm activity is forecast to
diminish around 23Z, with activity transitioning mainly to
showers. Showers are then expected to diminish overnight after
03Z, with winds becoming light and calm across all terminals.
Winds are forecast to pick back up out of the ENE at 5 to 10 knots
after 15Z tomorrow, with another afternoon of showers and storms
forecast after 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  92 /  30  50  20  40
MCO  75  91  74  92 /  50  70  20  60
MLB  75  89  75  90 /  40  50  20  40
VRB  75  89  74  90 /  40  60  20  40
LEE  76  92  76  92 /  50  70  30  60
SFB  75  92  75  92 /  40  60  20  50
ORL  76  91  76  92 /  50  60  20  60
FPR  74  88  74  90 /  40  60  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Tollefsen

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
905 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-300000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
905 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast to
develop into this afternoon and evening, as sea breeze boundaries
push inland and collide across the interior. Greatest coverage of
showers and storms are forecast to be across inland areas, west of
I-95, but some of this activity may still be able to push back
toward the coast and just offshore.

Some stronger storms will again be possible, with the main threats
being frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds to 45 mph and locally
heavy rainfall.

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IMPACT...
Slower moving or persistent storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall up to 2 to 4 inches today, mainly across
the interior this afternoon and evening. This may lead to
temporary minor flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Highs will be closer to normal today, ranging from the upper 80s
to around 90 degrees along the coast and low 90s over the
interior. However, humid conditions will still continue to produce
peak heat index values this afternoon around 102 to 107 before
increasing storms and cloud cover later into the afternoon begin
to bring some relief from the heat. If outdoors today, remain well
hydrated and take plenty of breaks inside air conditioned spaces.

.RIP CURRENT AND SURF IMPACT...
A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues at all central Florida
Atlantic beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard and never
swim alone.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast each day,
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. However,
greatest coverage of this activity is forecast to remain focused
across the interior of east central Florida. A few stronger storms
will be possible each day, with the primary threats being
frequent lightning strikes, strong gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall.

Highs will remain near to slightly above normal, and will combine
with humid conditions to produce a Moderate to Major Heat Risk
over east central Florida. It is recommended to take frequent
breaks out of the sun and drink plenty of water during the hottest
part of the days.

A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected to continue through
the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Kelly/Weitlich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
522 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

FLZ045-292200-
Orange FL-
522 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 521 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pine Castle, or over Orlando, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Azalea Park, Oak Ridge, Orlando International Airport, and
Conway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2835 8124 2835 8153 2858 8150 2856 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 010DEG 20KT 2846 8136

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
621 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

FLZ045-292245-
Orange FL-
621 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 620 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Wedgefield, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wedgefield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2845 8119 2846 8092 2835 8093 2835 8119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 273DEG 8KT 2838 8107

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sedlock