Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
357 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Now-Tonight...Scattered shower and isolated lightning storm
activity continues this afternoon, which so far has been focused
from Melbourne northward. However, activity is beginning to take
shape across Okeechobee County and will likely evolve toward the
Treasure Coast counties late this afternoon and evening. Where the
most organized storms are occurring, wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph
have been observed, along with heavy downpours and occasional
lightning strikes. A brief cool down is provided by convection as
well, with some locations dropping into the mid 70s to low 80s.
Chance to low-end likely PoPs continue south through the evening,
eventually translating offshore by midnight. The strongest
activity may produce wind gusts to 50 mph, occasional lightning
strikes, and localized heavy rainfall.

Wednesday-Friday...Drier air filters south across the area on
Wednesday as surface flow veers to the north-northeast. The east
coast sea breeze will stay active through the remainder of the
week, pushing farther inland each afternoon. Gusty winds up to 20
mph are possible as it develops and moves westward. Timing will
vary by day, with a bit of a delay expected to its inland
progression on Wednesday and Thursday. This delay will allow
afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 90s, and Leesburg
may approach a daily record Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances of
20 to 30 percent or less are forecast to remain confined to far
southern locations around Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.

The early week surface front that stalls across the area may lift
back north late Thursday into Friday before pushing south of the
area again by Friday night. Increasing PW around 1.5", a nearby
boundary, and inland-moving sea breeze may provide for scattered
showers and a storm or two Friday afternoon across a broader
portion of ECFL. However, confidence remains low in this ECM/NBM-
driven solution, so have kept PoPs around 35 percent or less. Due
to an earlier sea breeze, coastal locations could only reach the
upper 80s Friday afternoon, with the mid 90s expected inland.

Saturday-Monday...Medium-range solutions quickly diverge heading
into the weekend with regard to available moisture and associated
afternoon rain chances. It does appear some drier air will be
present with daytime highs cooler in the mid 80s to low 90s. This
will give us a bit of a break from the recent pattern of 100+
degree heat indices, but appreciable rainfall looks unlikely with
broad surface high pressure extending south from the eastern U.S.
Overnight lows will fall into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Now-Tonight...Isolated showers and lightning storms will continue
into tonight while gradually shifting south and increasingly
offshore. Outside of storms, light ESE winds will gradually veer
south to southwest later tonight. Seas around 2 ft, except where
locally higher around lightning storms.

Wednesday-Sunday...Generally favorable conditions are expected
through late week as a weak surface boundary remains near or
across the local waters. Daily rain chances will persist (mainly
south of Sebastian Inlet Wed-Thu), expanding slightly in coverage
Friday, before becoming focused farther south this weekend as high
pressure builds. Seas 2-3 ft through Friday, building to 4-5 ft
offshore this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Wednesday-Thursday...Low relative humidity values mid week, in
addition to dry and hot conditions, will lead to fire sensitive to
critical conditions each afternoon. Additionally, temperatures
will reach the mid to upper 90s, especially inland, sending heat
indices into the low 100s.

Late Week-This Weekend...Continued fire sensitive conditions are
forecast with relative humidity values recovering some into the
30s and 40s. Temperatures back down into the upper 80s to low 90s
this weekend, though mostly dry conditions are expected to
persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Ongoing SHRA/TSRA INVOF the I-4 terminals expected to push
east/southeast by 20Z. This activity is forecast to reach KTIX-
KSUA between between 18Z to the north and 19-20Z to the south, but
still somewhat low confidence in timing and could arrive a little
on the early side. KTIX-KSUA clearing for the most part by 00Z,
but SHRA could linger until 03Z. Main TSRA impacts MVFR-IFR VIS
reductions, ceilings have stayed well above 030 so far. VFR
conditions prevail late this evening after SHRA/TSRA dissipates or
pushes offshore. Mostly dry conditions Wednesday. Winds this
afternoon Wrly 5-10 kts, turning E-SE at the coastal terminals
behind the sea breeze, become light and VRB overnight, then wake
up Wednesday morning at Nrly 5-10 kts, becoming NE-ENE in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  91  70  90 /  20   0   0  10
MCO  74  96  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  74  91  73  90 /  30  10   0  10
VRB  72  92  71  91 /  40  10   0  10
LEE  73  95  71  95 /   0  10   0  10
SFB  73  96  71  95 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  75  96  73  95 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  72  92  71  91 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1021 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-290230-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1021 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms this morning near and north of I-4 are
expected to become scattered, generally south of I-4 this
afternoon into this evening. The main threats will be lightning
strikes, locally heavy downpours, and wind gusts to around 50 mph.
Showers and storms will gradually push offshore tonight.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Afternoon temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s, with
peak heat indices between 100 to 105 across east central Florida.
If spending extended periods of time outdoors, it is recommended
to take breaks in the shade or in an air-conditioned building,
and also remain well hydrated.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate Risk of rip currents will exist at all east central
Florida beaches today. Be sure to swim near a lifeguard and never
enter the ocean alone.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
Minimum RH values in the 35 to 45 percent range will lead to
sensitive fire weather conditions today. Winds are forecast to
remain below 15 mph across the area. The heat continues, with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices in
the 100 to 105 range. Lightning strikes could lead to additional
fire starts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A Limited to Elevated risk for excessive heat continues through
midweek as temperatures climb into the 90s with peak heat indices
reaching 100 to 105 degrees.

Diurnal shower and thunderstorm development will then continue
through the remainder of the week.

A Moderate risk of rip currents will exist at all central Florida
Atlantic beaches through the end of the week.

Sensitive fire weather conditions will continue across the interior
through late week due to warm temperatures and critical minimum
relative humidity values.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Schaper/Leahy

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

FLZ045-053-282030-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
400 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE AND
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kissimmee, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, West Lake Toho, and Intercession
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2820 8149 2833 8153 2840 8116 2817 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 266DEG 18KT 2828 8141

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Heil