Small Craft Advisory 19, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
922 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

Current-Tonight...Pocket of higher moisture over the Atlantic waters
has been just enough to pump a few bands of showers into the local
marine zones this evening, but activity is dissipating near the Gulf
Stream where much lower PW values reside. Updated the PoP forecast
to mention these showers, but all rain will remain well offshore
tonight. Near term guidance is in good agreement with fog
development along the Saint Johns River north of Lake George and
over the Green Swamp, but coverage and confidence is too low to
include. Current temp forecast was a little high compared to evening
observations, so lowered values just a degree or two. Chilly morning
lows in the low to mid 40s across the interior, upper 40s to low 50s
at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

Tonight-Thursday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions remain for
a good portion of the local Atlantic, especially in the Gulf
Stream. SCA conditions have retreated out of the nearshore Brevard
waters, but still in place south of Sebastian Inlet and all of the
offshore waters due to lingering 7 ft seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

Thursday...Dry conditions are forecast again for Thursday with
minimum relative humidity values falling into the 30 percent range
west of Interstate 95, perhaps reaching the mid to upper 20
percent range across interior locations. Winds are expected to be
light and fuels remain saturated, keeping fire concerns low.

Friday-Wednesday...Moisture recovers ahead of an approaching cold
front on Friday. However, wind speeds increase to 20 to 25 mph
with gusts to 35 mph during the day. Isolated to scattered showers
are possible Friday afternoon and evening.

Drier air returns this weekend with lower humidity values
expected once again. Elevated wind speeds on Saturday may combine
to produce fire sensitive conditions. Northwesterly winds will
veer southeasterly next week, around 10-15mph. A warming trend
will see highs reach the lower 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 917 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

Prevailing VFR. Guidance suggesting patchy fog development over
north FL which will filter along the Saint Johns River basin, but
should remain away from local terminals. Confidence too low to
include MVFR reductions in the TAF, but will monitor KDAB and KLEE
for necessary amendments. Variable winds overnight return northerly
by sunrise, veering northeast to east then southeast by the end of
the TAF period, remaining less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  45  72  50  73 /   0   0   0  60
MCO  45  73  52  76 /   0   0   0  40
MLB  48  72  52  76 /   0   0   0  20
VRB  49  74  52  78 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  43  73  50  73 /   0   0   0  60
SFB  45  74  51  75 /   0   0   0  50
ORL  45  74  52  76 /   0   0   0  40
FPR  48  73  52  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM....Kelly
AVIATION...Smith

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