Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Melbourne, FL

086 
WWUS52 KMLB 102058
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
458 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

FLC095-097-102115-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-240910T2115Z/
Orange FL-Osceola FL-
458 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN ORANGE AND NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES...

At 457 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Yeehaw
Junction, or over Buena Ventura Lakes, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, West Lake Toho, and Buena Ventura
Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2844 8139 2841 8128 2813 8129 2819 8152
      2820 8152 2822 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 016DEG 19KT 2833 8139 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Haley

290 
WWUS52 KMLB 102108
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
508 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

FLC095-102118-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-240910T2115Z/
Orange FL-
508 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 2835 8145 2835 8128 2813 8129 2819 8152
      2820 8152 2822 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 017DEG 14KT 2829 8140 

$$

FLC097-102115-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-240910T2115Z/
Osceola FL-
508 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

At 508 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kissimmee,
moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, Buena Ventura Lakes, East Lake Toho, and West
Lake Toho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2835 8145 2835 8128 2813 8129 2819 8152
      2820 8152 2822 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 017DEG 14KT 2829 8140 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Heil

894 
WWUS52 KMLB 102113
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
513 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

FLC097-102122-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-240910T2115Z/
Osceola FL-
513 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Melbourne.

LAT...LON 2835 8145 2835 8128 2813 8129 2819 8152
      2820 8152 2822 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 017DEG 14KT 2827 8141 

$$

Heil

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Lingering frontal boundary across central Florida will continue
  high shower and storm chances, as well as a Marginal Risk of
  excessive rainfall through at least Wednesday.

- Threat for localized flooding issues will continue where heavier
  rainfall occurs, especially across urban, low-lying, and poor
  drainage areas.

Thru Tonight...Sea breeze pushing steadily inland will focus add'l
convection over the interior thru early eve with steering flow
pushing storms back toward the east coast south of the Cape.
Overnight, the focus for convective development should shift back
over the Atlc waters where the greater instability will be
located. There is a concern that one or more bands of heavy rain
may set up over the Atlc and push onshore portions of Brevard and
Volusia counties late tonight and early Wed. Some model guidance
have backed off this solution, instead focusing the heavy rain
threat just to the north across NE FL. Nonetheless, deep moisture
combined with an increase in low level convergence along or near
the front should produce a locally heavy rain threat somewhere
along the coast from Brevard northward.

Wed-Thu (modified)...Weak frontal boundary will remain draped
across central Florida on Wednesday then is forecast to become a
warm front Thursday as TC Francine moves NE from the central Gulf
coast. Higher moisture will remain over east central Florida
through the time period, with forecast PW values around 2.0-2.4".
This will support scattered to numerous showers and lightning
storms each afternoon and evening. The main concern with these
storms will continue to be locally heavy to excessive rainfall,
leading to additional flooding issues with any slow moving or
repeated rounds of heavier showers and storms. Additional storm
threats will also include gusty winds and lightning strikes. The
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained all of east
central Florida in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for
Wednesday. Near seasonable max temps in the upper 80s/near 90
except holding in the mid 80s along the Volusia coast. A little
stronger east winds will produce breezier conds along the Volusia
coast north of the stalled front.

Fri-Mon (previous)... The frontal boundary draped across north-
central Florida is forecast to lift northward out of the local
area into early weekend. Latest guidance shows the deeper moisture
will begin to shift southward into late weekend as the remnants
of Francine moves into the Midwest, pushing drier air into the
local area from the north. Forecast PW values ranging from
1.2-1.58" from Cape Canaveral to Kissimmee northward, and 1.8-2.1"
southward by late weekend and into early next week. This will
continue to support Scattered to numerous showers and storms in
the afternoon and evening through early next week. PoP 60-70
percent areawide through Saturday. Highest rain chances (PoP 60s
percent) going into late weekend will then be confined across the
Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county. Rain chances then decrease
slightly going into early week as the drier air filters across the
area, with PoP 40-50 percent areawide. Afternoon highs will be
slightly warmer than previous days, with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Overnight lows will continue to be in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

The stationary frontal boundary is forecast to remain draped E-W
across central FL and the adjacent Atlc waters thru Wed then
gradually lift northward and become stationary just north of the
waters late week into the weekend. Low pressure is forecast to
develop along the front offshore the GA/SC coast this weekend. Deep
moisture will remain over the area thru late week then some
relatively drier air will move into the area this weekend. Onshore
flow will remain through the period. A tighter pressure gradient
across the Volusia waters will support up to 15 knots and up to 10
knots across the southern waters Wed-Thu. Seas 3-5ft Wednesday
will slowly subside to 3-4ft by Friday and persist this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Low confidence in convective evolution due to multiple/chaotic
boundary interactions, but can generally expected ISO SHRA to
persistent through the TAF period, becoming SCT-NUM from the late
afternoon through the early overnight. Timing in TAFs reflects a
combination of highest chances and persistence, but will likely
need short-fused AMDs and TEMPOs once again this afternoon once
SHRA/TSRA gets going. Deep convection expected to diminish by
around 00Z, but debris -SHRA could continue to 06Z or later.
Primary TSRA impacts will be VIS reductions all the way down to
LIFR, but generally MVFR-IFR, and MVFR CIGs that could drop to IFR
in persistent +TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  86  76  87 /  60  70  60  70
MCO  76  89  76  88 /  50  70  40  70
MLB  76  88  76  89 /  70  70  60  60
VRB  75  89  76  89 /  70  70  60  70
LEE  76  89  76  89 /  30  70  30  70
SFB  76  87  76  88 /  50  70  40  70
ORL  76  89  76  89 /  50  70  40  70
FPR  75  89  76  89 /  60  70  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1115 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-102130-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1115 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Florida.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms will develop
into the afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms will
develop by late morning along the coast before shifting across the
interior into the afternoon and early evening. Lingering showers
and storms will then push back towards the coast into late
evening. Storms will generally move north to northeast around 10
to 15 mph, with some storms being able to push offshore. Main
storm threats will be gusty winds up to 40 mph, occasional to
frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours.

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IMPACT...
Any slow moving or repeated rounds of heavier showers and storms
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts of up to 5 to 6 inches possible. These high
rainfall amounts could lead to additional localized flooding
concerns of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas. Locations
that have already received substantial rainfall the last few days
will be more susceptible to flooding.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Heat and high humidity today will combine to produce peak
afternoon heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees, leading to a
Minor HeatRisk.

.RIP CURRENT AND SURF IMPACT...
A Moderate Risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at all
central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard,
and never swim alone.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Saint Johns River near Astor is forecast to remain in Minor
Flood Stage through late week due to light north to northeast winds
and periods of locally heavy rainfall. Levels will hover near
2.8 feet, but could spike higher briefly with heavy downpours.
The potential exists for additional rises if persistent locally
heavy rainfall develops over the basin, and could reach Moderate
Flood Stage if this occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast each
afternoon and evening through at least late week. Locally heavy
to excessive rainfall leading to additional localized flooding,
cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will remain the primary
threats.

Heat and humidity will produce peak heat indices as high as 100 to
105 through mid week, mainly from southern Brevard County to
Okeechobee County southward.

At least a Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to
continue at the beaches through mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Kelly/Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
445 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

FLZ045-053-102115-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
445 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE AND
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 445 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Orlando International Airport, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, Buena Ventura Lakes, and East Lake
Toho.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2850 8142 2845 8123 2816 8127 2824 8154
      2826 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 017DEG 14KT 2841 8135

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Haley