Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Melbourne, FL

003 
WWUS52 KMLB 302030
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
430 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

FLC093-302040-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-240730T2045Z/
Okeechobee FL-
430 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2740 8068 2728 8086 2744 8105 2762 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 139DEG 12KT 2748 8089 

$$

Leahy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service San Juan PR
330 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
  east  Central Florida over the next several days, with scattered
  to numerous showers and storms each afternoon.

- Unpleasant afternoon temperatures will continue. Some spots late
  this week into the weekend may reach peak heat indices of 110,
  particularly across the interior.

Convection is expected to dissipate or move out of the local area
by sundown. Wednesday and Thursday, the trough over the eastern
US will continue to retreat, while at the surface, the ridge axis
of the Atlantic high settles across central Florida. With the
ridge axis back in the neighborhood, low-level southerly flow will
favor earlier and quicker development of the east coast sea
breeze and a collision near or west of the center of the state on
both days. In addition,  the latest guidance continues to show
PWATs at or above 2", with 500mb temperatures increasing to -5C to
-6C. This results in a favorable environment for scattered
efficient rainmakers that could produce minor flooding, gusty
winds, and occasional to frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. The
high moisture will continue to result in unpleasant afternoon
temperatures. 

//Issued at 426 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024//
Friday-Tuesday...Sweltering conditions remain expected through the
weekend and into early next week as stacked high pressure and
southeasterly to easterly surface flow continues. Afternoon highs
in the extended term have become a little more varied this cycle,
seeing a few areas come in a degree or two lower and closer to the
L90s, while other areas remained solidly in the M90s, resulting
in spotty areas of heat index values up to 109, and widespread
values closer to 107. These generally lower than previously
forecast heat index values are reflected in the Heat Risk, which
is currently indicating little to no areas of Extreme. That said,
pretty much all the area remains in Major Heat Risk, indicating
this level of heat can affect anyone without effective cooling.
Locals and visitors to the area should continue to take
precautions to prevent heat-related illness, such as remaining
well hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the shade or an air
conditioned building.

The ridge axis of the Atlantic high is forecast to shift north,
bringing us more southeasterly to easterly surface flow, which
continues to favor earlier and faster development of the east
coast sea breeze. Rain chances remain fairly consistent Friday and
Saturday, starting around 40 pct near the coast and increasing to
60 pct across the interior. There is increasing uncertainty in
rain chances Sunday onward as we continue to monitor model trends
of an area of interest in the tropics. There continues to be a
fair amount of disagreement between models, and it is still too
early to determine what, if any, impacts could occur locally. The
National Hurricane Center has a 60% chance of formation into a
tropical cyclone as it approaches the Caribbean over the next 7
days. Continue to follow trusted sources and check in regularly on
the forecast over the next several days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

The Atlantic high builds back towards Florida over the next couple
days with the ridge axis reaching the local Atlantic waters by
Wednesday, then shifting north later in the week. As a result,
expect winds shifting southerly across the northern waters and
easterly to the south. The east coast sea breeze will back winds
to the east to southeast each afternoon, up to around 10 kts near
the coast. Seas 2-3 ft through Friday. There is a potential for
deteriorating boating conditions this weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Light onshore flow (5-10 kts) to continue. VCTS in place for most
TAF sites thru 31/00z. TEMPOs have been included through the late
afternoon into the early evening at MC0/LEE/SFB and ISM. Primary
aviation hazards include lightning strikes, locally gusty winds,
and torrential downpours. VFR conditions at all TAF sites outside
of afternoon-early evening convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  76  93 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  76  94  77  95 /  30  50  10  60
MLB  77  91  77  92 /  20  40  10  40
VRB  75  93  76  93 /  20  30  10  40
LEE  76  93  77  95 /  30  60  20  60
SFB  76  94  77  95 /  20  50  10  60
ORL  77  94  78  95 /  20  50  10  60
FPR  75  91  76  91 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...SJU
AVIATION...SJU

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1007 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-310000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1007 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered showers and lighting storms will develop along the
inland moving east coast sea breeze this afternoon, with the
greatest coverage of this activity focused across the interior,
west of the I-95 corridor. Some stronger storms may develop
producing gusty winds to 40 to 50 mph, frequent cloud to ground
lightning, and possibly small hail. Slower storm motion will also
allow any stronger storms to produce locally heavy rainfall up to
1 to 3 inches, which may lead to minor flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas. Showers and storms are forecast to diminish by
the late evening.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Highs in the low 90s at the coast and low to mid 90s across the
interior, combined with high humidity, will produce peak heat
index index values around 101 to 106 degrees this afternoon. If
spending time outdoors, take breaks in an air conditioned building
or shade and drink plenty of water to avoid heat stress.
Increasing rain and cloud cover by mid to late afternoon may bring
relief from the heat.

.RIP CURRENT AND SURF IMPACT...
A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents continues at all central
Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard, and never
swim alone.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Daily chances of at least isolated to scattered lightning storms
are forecast to continue through the week and into the weekend.
Stronger storms capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
torrential rainfall will be possible.

Heat concerns continue into mid to late week due to a combination
of high relative humidity and increasing temperatures. Peak
afternoon heat indices are forecast to reach up to 107 by mid
week, and as high as 110 late in the week.

A Low to Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents is expected to
continue through the week.

A large tropical wave over the central Atlantic will move west to
northwest and there is a chance of tropical development with this
system late this week as it is in the vicinity of the Greater
Antilles or the Bahamas. It is too early to say what impacts, if
any, could occur from this system to the east central Florida area
into this weekend and early next week. For now, continue to
closely monitor the forecast over the coming days for updates on
this system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Haley/Weitlich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service San Juan PR
353 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

FLZ041-141-302030-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
353 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

At 351 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Daytona Beach, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Port Orange, DeLand, New Smyrna Beach, and Lake Helen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2895 8124 2916 8133 2926 8112 2907 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 323DEG 14KT 2918 8118

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SJU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

FLZ058-259-264-302030-
Okeechobee FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Inland Martin FL-
358 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...EASTERN
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 358 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Drum, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Treasure Island, Fort Drum, Four Seasons Estates, Taylor Creek, and
Country Hills Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2711 8066 2716 8071 2719 8077 2757 8105
      2764 8096 2764 8088 2739 8064 2715 8051
      2705 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 148DEG 14KT 2743 8082

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Leahy