Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

-Slight risk for severe storms through early evening.

-Hot conditions forecast through the weekend, with near record
 highs and heat index values in the 102 to 107 range.

-Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this weekend.

Current...The heat is on this afternoon with temps reaching 97
degrees at 2pm at Orlando Intl Airport and Orlando Exec. SPC has
also upgraded the severe weather risk during the late afternoon
and early evening with isolated to scattered strong to severe
storms with the potential for hail and downburst winds. The
concern window for severe storms will be from 4pm to 7pm mainly
inland across the interior and well inland portions of the coastal
counties.

Tonight...Scattered ongoing strong to severe storms will be across
the interior with activity propogating south across the interior
along bounbdaries and also advecting back toward the east coast
this evening. Should see much of the convection decrease in
coverage across southern portions of the forecast area into late
evening and/or push eastward across the Atlantic waters. Lows
tonight in the lower to mid 70s.

Friday...Another approaching mid level shortwave trough will
enhance afternoon convection during the mid to late afternoon. The
GFS indicate some drying across the north in the H9-H8 layer but
substantial CAPE and afternoon heating should allow for scattered
storms north and numerous showers and storms across the south half
of the forecast area. High temps will continue above normal from
95 to 97 across the interior and 92-94 closer to the east coast.
Heat indices look to top out just below advisory thresholds from
103-107 in afternoon hours.

Saturday-Sunday...Low level WSW flow and some drying in the low
levels will make for a hot weekend. Highs will reach the mid 90s
near the coast and upper 90s across the interior. Area heat
indices area forecast to reach up to 106-109 in a few spots which
may require heat headlines this weekend. Have trimmed the NBM rain
chances based on mid range model guidance and MOS values. It
appears northern areas may only see isolated storms with scattered
coverage across the central and south each afternoon.

Monday...Another hot day is forecast with highs in the mid to
upper 90s, an increase in moisture should allow for an uptick in
afternoon showers and storms along the east coast sea breeze as it
moves into the southern interior with slower progression inland
north of the Cape expected.

Tue-Thu...Deeper moisture will move northward from south Florida
into mid to latter part of next week as mid level trough
progresses through the Southeast. Tempered daily shower and storm
chances slightly but still rising to 70 percent by mid week.
Higher coverage of showers and storms by Wed-Thu, should reduce
high temps to around 90 with heat index values from 100 to 105
degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into
late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north
Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into
the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the
period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the
S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind
speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the
afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet.

Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be
possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and
storm chances begin to decrease north of the Cape into the
weekend before rising once again into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Thursday-Monday...Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist
across the area Fri-Mon, with sensitive to near critical fire
weather conditions into the weekend, as hot conditions prevail and
ongoing drought conditions persist. Minimum RH values fall to near
40 percent Friday afternoon. Additional scattered showers and
storms are possible Friday afternoon. An increase in lightning
strikes with this activity, may lead to additional brush fires.

Conditions then trend a little drier into the weekend, with Min RH
values falling to the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior on
Saturday and into the mid to upper 30s across the interior on
Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will again be
possible each afternoon, but overall coverage is forecast to be
lower.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Forecast high temperatures are expected to remain below record
values today, but there will be a better chance of tying or
breaking some record highs Friday and into the weekend.

Record high temperatures for today, June 6th:

DAB 6-Jun  100 1998
LEE 6-Jun  98 1998
SFB 6-Jun  101 1998
MCO 6-Jun  101 1927
MLB 6-Jun  101 1998
VRB 6-Jun  97 1998
FPR 6-Jun  100 1998

Record high temperatures for June 7th through the 9th:

DAB 7-Jun 97 1985     8-Jun  99 1985     9-Jun 98 1981
LEE 7-Jun 96 2008     8-Jun  96 1985     9-Jun 98 1985
SFB 7-Jun 100 1998    8-Jun  97 1985     9-Jun 99 2006
MCO 7-Jun 98 1927     8-Jun  99 1985     9-Jun 100 1907
MLB 7-Jun 95 2014     8-Jun  97 1980     9-Jun 97 1941
VRB 7-Jun 98 1986     8-Jun  95 1995     9-Jun 94 1994
FPR 7-Jun 95 1998     8-Jun  95 1949     9-Jun 96 1980

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

IMPACT:
TS likely for Greater Orlando terminals, including MCO, between
06/19Z-07/00Z. A 15% risk for storms with severe wind/hail.

DISCUSSION:
Plentiful instability will overturn this afternoon as the sea
breezes collide over the peninsula, sparking scattered to numerous
storms between 19Z and 00Z. Gusty winds to 30-50 KT and coin-
sized hail are possible in a few storms, along with frequent
lightning. Highest coverage will be around Greater Orlando
initially before drifting toward the coastal sites through 03Z
before diminishing overnight. Prevailing winds will be SW 5-15 KT,
except E/SE 8-15 KT for the coastal terminals. VFR except near
storms. Overnight, light/variable winds are expected. Another
round of SCT storms expected Friday beyond 07/20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  94  74  94 /  20  50  20  20
MCO  73  96  76  97 /  30  50  20  20
MLB  72  93  74  93 /  30  60  40  20
VRB  72  94  73  94 /  50  60  40  30
LEE  74  96  76  97 /  20  50  10  20
SFB  73  97  75  97 /  20  50  20  20
ORL  74  96  76  97 /  30  50  20  20
FPR  71  94  72  93 /  50  60  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Volkmer
AVIATION...Heil

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
524 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-070200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
524 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms will develop
toward mid to late afternoon and through this evening, as the sea
breeze boundaries move inland and collide across east central
Florida, west of I-95. Some of this activity may be able to shift
back toward the coast and offshore through late afternoon into
early this evening.

Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible, with the main
threats including frequent lightning strikes, strong to locally
damaging wind gusts around 40 to 60 mph, coin-sized hail up to 1
inch in diameter, and locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Hotter than normal temperatures are forecast today, with highs
climbing into the low to mid 90s at the coast and mid to upper
90s across the interior, with peak heat indices between 102 to 107
across east central Florida. If spending extended periods of time
outdoors, it is recommended that you take breaks in the shade or
in an air conditioned building, and also remain well hydrated.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A moderate risk for dangerous rip currents exists at area beaches
today. Remember to swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce wind
gusts in excess of 34 knots, initially over inland lakes this
afternoon and with any storms that push offshore from late this
afternoon into this evening.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
Sensitive fire weather conditions will continue today, as hotter
temperatures and ongoing drought conditions persist over much of
east central Florida. Any new or ongoing brush fires may spread
rapidly behind the east and west coast sea breeze boundaries,
which will push inland and collide across east central Florida,
west of I-95 later this afternoon. Higher storm coverage is
expected later this afternoon and evening, with an increase in
lightning strikes and strong gusty outflow winds possible, which
will lead to additional fire weather concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Scattered afternoon showers and lightning storms will be possible
into Friday, with overall coverage of this activity decreasing
into the weekend. Shower and storm chances then increase again
into early next week.

Hot temperatures will continue from late week and into the
weekend, with near record highs well into the 90s and peak heat
indices of 100 to 107. A Moderate to Major Heat Risk is outlooked
over much of central Florida. This level of heat can affect anyone
without adequate cooling and hydration.

Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast
into late week and this weekend as hotter than normal conditions
continue and drought conditions persist.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Weitlich

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
513 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

FLZ053-058-254-062145-
Okeechobee FL-Osceola FL-Inland Indian River FL-
513 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE...WEST
CENTRAL INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kissimmee Prarie Preserve, or 14 miles south of Kenansville. This
thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee Prarie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2764 8114 2765 8114 2766 8113 2767 8114
      2781 8103 2770 8078 2750 8096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 303DEG 4KT 2767 8101

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Heil

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
533 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

FLZ053-058-062200-
Okeechobee FL-Osceola FL-
533 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OKEECHOBEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 533 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles south of Lake Kissimmee to 6 miles
northwest of Kissimmee Prarie Preserve to 9 miles northwest of Fort
Drum. Movement was southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee Prarie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2755 8120 2758 8116 2760 8114 2764 8114
      2765 8113 2768 8115 2771 8115 2773 8117
      2774 8116 2775 8118 2776 8117 2780 8120
      2774 8108 2772 8087 2767 8087 2753 8091
      2753 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 038DEG 11KT 2773 8130 2763 8114 2764 8091

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
549 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

FLZ041-044-062215-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
549 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 548 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Paisley, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, DeLand, Orange City, Pierson, and Barberville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2893 8125 2898 8166 2905 8166 2905 8164
      2920 8164 2926 8136 2926 8128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 271DEG 9KT 2909 8152

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Heil

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
551 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

FLZ053-058-062230-
Okeechobee FL-Osceola FL-
551 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE AND
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 551 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Haines
City to 8 miles northwest of Kissimmee Prarie Preserve. Movement was
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee, Lake Kissimmee, Lake Marian, West Lake Toho, and
Kenansville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2831 8145 2790 8087 2761 8090 2756 8109
      2760 8114 2771 8115 2782 8121 2786 8130
      2792 8131 2794 8135 2795 8134 2800 8139
      2800 8142 2806 8146 2801 8138 2808 8135
      2809 8145 2814 8146 2814 8152 2820 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 202DEG 11KT 2804 8153 2770 8110

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil