River Flood Warning 2, NWS Melbourne, FL

084 
WGUS82 KMLB 042259
FLSMLB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
659 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Florida...

  Little Wekiva River near Altamonte Springs 2n affecting Seminole 
  County.

.Heavy rainfall has ended over the river basin. The river will 
continue to fall through action stage this evening and below action 
stage tonight.

FLC117-050000-
/O.CAN.KMLB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240904T2259Z/
/LWAF1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
659 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Little Wekiva River near Altamonte Springs 2n.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:30 PM EDT Wednesday the stage was 28.1 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 27.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below action stage
    tonight.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

                    Fld   Observed        Forecasts (EDT)
Location            Stg   Stg   Day/Time  7PM    8PM

Little Wekiva River
Altamonte Springs 2 28.5  28.1  Wed 6 pm  27.5   26.5   


&&

LAT...LON 2871 8140 2871 8138 2867 8139 2865 8139
      2865 8141 2867 8142


$$

Schaper

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
335 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

- The threat for flooding across the interior continues today,
  especially in urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas.
  Locations that have already received substantial rainfall the
  last couple days will be more susceptible to flooding.

- There is a High Risk for life-threatening rip currents at the
  Volusia and Northern Brevard Atlantic beaches due to a long
  period swell.

- High shower and lightning storm chances look to continue over
  the next week or so.

Rest of Today-Tonight...Scattered to numerous showers with
embedded lightning storms are working their way inland along the
sea breeze as of around 330pm this afternoon. Activity is slow
moving, with rainfall amounts up to 2 inches already reported
across portions of Seminole and Orange Counties, prompting a
Flood Advisory. Expect much of the same to continue into the
evening hours, as warm temperatures aloft hinder the strong storm
threat. CAMs suggest a sea breeze collision near to just west of
the Kissimmee River later this afternoon into this evening. This
would be the best location for gusty winds today, with continued
locally heavy rainfall. PWATs around 2.25" will support rainfall
totals of 2-4" in a short period of time, leading to minor
flooding, especially in areas that have received heavy rainfall
over the last few days. Remember, never drive through flooded
roadways!

CAMs also support activity persisting through the evening hours,
pushing slowly back towards the coast into late tonight (after
midnight). Drier conditions should then develop towards sunrise.
However, a few showers and a storm will remain possible along the
coast. PoPs 30-50% this evening into tonight. Warm and muggy
conditions for the overnight hours, with low temperatures
remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Some coastal areas could remain
around 80.

Thursday-Friday (modified previous)...Generally more of the same,
as east central Florida remains weakly under the influence of high
pressure, deep moisture continues to stream across the area in
easterly to southeasterly flow, and the stationary front remains
draped across North Florida. Daily scattered to numerous showers
and isolated lightning storms continue, while the ridge aloft
begins to weaken as a broad trough approaches. Temperatures aloft
(500mb) are forecast to continue warming, remaining about -5C on
Thursday before becoming as warm as -4 to -3.5C on Friday. This
will continue to limit the strong storm and lightning threat,
despite ample moisture. However, steering flow looks to remain
weak through most of Friday, continuing the threat for locally
heavy rainfall and flooding. Warm and muggy conditions continue
with afternoon highs in the U80s-L90 and high humidity producing
heat indices up to 106.

Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...A broad mid-upper level trough
digging down into the Southeast as it works across the CONUS
shifts the frontal boundary south into central Florida, while also
helping to produce a surface disturbance or two along the
boundary through the weekend. With the boundary and associated
deep moisture forecast to remain in the neighborhood, high rain
chances continue through the weekend and into next week, and could
also see more thunderstorms again as the trough lowers
temperatures aloft. Temperatures are forecast to creep down thanks
to the high cloud cover, from the U80s-L90s Saturday into
possibly the M80s-90 Tuesday, but with the high humidity
sweltering conditions look to continue through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Rest of Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will
continue across the offshore waters into tonight, as swell up to
6-7ft continues to move into the area. Seas are forecast to begin
diminishing late this evening, though seas up to 6ft will remain
possible from around Cape Canaveral northward through the
overnight hours. The Small Craft Advisory for the offshore Volusia
County waters is expected to continue through 11PM. Elsewhere,
small craft should continue to exercise caution in the offshore
waters. Nearshore, seas 3-5ft. Onshore flow around 10kts this
afternoon will veer southeasterly overnight, becoming 5-10kts.
Showers and lightning storms will continue, with the possibility
of offshore-moving cells this evening.

Thursday-Monday (modified previous)...High pressure in the
tropical north Atlantic continues to weakly extend to Florida,
while the frontal boundary draped across North Florida shifts
south into central Florida through the weekend. Winds 5-10 kts are
forecast to veer from E-SE Thursday, to SE-S Friday, and SW-S
Saturday, before working back towards easterly Sunday and Monday,
assuming the front follows the current forecast. Seas 3-6 ft
early Thursday slowly subside to 3-5 ft early Friday, 2-4 ft this
weekend into early next week. High rain and lightning storm
chances continue, with some cells moving offshore, especially
Friday into this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Scattered showers and storms have developed along and ahead of the
east coast sea breeze early this afternoon. Coastal VCTS
transitions to VCSH around 21Z behind the sea breeze. TEMPOs kept
across the interior for VIS/CIG reductions in convection.
The greatest coverage of interior VCTS generally diminishes
around sunset with lingering showers and isolated storms possible
into the evening, particularly at LEE. Redevelopment of storms
will be possible near DAB this evening, and have included VCTS
from 01/05Z. Periods of VCSH continue at coastal terminals
overnight. East winds around 10 kts this afternoon become 5 kts or
less tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  91  76  90 /  50  70  50  70
MCO  77  93  77  92 /  50  70  30  70
MLB  78  90  77  90 /  40  70  40  60
VRB  77  91  77  90 /  40  60  30  60
LEE  77  92  77  91 /  50  70  30  70
SFB  77  91  77  91 /  50  70  30  70
ORL  78  93  77  92 /  50  70  30  70
FPR  77  91  76  91 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ570.

&&

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Law

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
527 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-050200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
527 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated lightning storms capable of occasional cloud to ground
lightning, gusty winds to 45 mph, and heavy downpours will be
possible, especially across the interior in the afternoon and
evening.

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IMPACT...
Slow and erratic storm motion could lead to locally high rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches in a short period of time, and one or
two locations receiving over 4 inches can't be ruled out. These
high rainfall amounts could lead to flooding of urban, low-lying,
and poor drainage areas.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Heat and high humidity will combine to produce peak afternoon heat
index values of 103 to 107, and Moderate to Major HeatRisk.

.RIP CURRENT AND SURF IMPACT...
There is a High Risk for life-threatening rip currents at the
Volusia and Northern Brevard Atlantic beaches due to northeasterly
long period swell, and entering the surf is discouraged. A
Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents continues at the rest of
the central Florida Atlantic beaches. Swimmers should check in
with lifeguards for the latest information, and never swim alone.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Northeasterly swell is expected to build seas in the Gulf Stream
up to 7 ft offshore of Volusia, where a Small Craft Advisory has
been issued, 4-6 feet offshore of Brevard, where small craft
should exercise caution, and up to 6 ft offshore of the Treasure
Coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
A Moderate Risk for dangerous rip currents continues at all central
Florida Atlantic beaches tonight. Entering the surf at night is
strongly discouraged.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast each
afternoon. Heavy rainfall, cloud to ground lightning, and gusty
winds will remain the primary threats.

Heat and humidity will produce peak heat index values 102 to 106.

At least a Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to
continue at the beaches into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
243 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

FLZ058-259-041915-
Okeechobee FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-
243 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN ST. LUCIE AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 243 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Four Seasons Estates, or 10 miles southeast of Fort
Drum, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Treasure Island, Okeechobee, Fort Drum, Four Seasons Estates, and
Kissimmee Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2720 8090 2761 8112 2757 8078 2756 8078
      2755 8054 2721 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 163DEG 19KT 2739 8073

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Law

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
252 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

FLZ041-044>046-041915-
Northern Lake County FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-
252 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN SEMINOLE...EAST CENTRAL
LAKE...NORTHWESTERN ORANGE AND CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 315
PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sanford, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Sanford, Winter Springs, Casselberry, and Lake Mary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. On rare occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind
gusts over 50 mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and
report your sighting to the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2875 8118 2866 8130 2879 8161 2897 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 122DEG 11KT 2878 8130

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Law