Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

217 
WGUS72 KMLB 142239
FFSMLB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
639 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

FLC127-142249-
/O.CAN.KMLB.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240914T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Volusia FL-
639 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY HAS BEEN 
REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8099 2898 8093 2898 8083 2890 8078
      2889 8095

$$

Leahy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
435 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Key Messages...

- High coverage of showers and storms capable of heavy rainfall,
  occasional to frequent lightning, and gusty winds into this
  evening

- Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with a Moderate
  Heat Risk expected into early next week

- Saint Johns River at Astor forecast to remain in Moderate Flood
  through mid next week

Currently-Tonight... Local radar imagery shows scattered to numerous
showers and lightning storms with the greatest coverage near the
coast, as well as over Okeechobee county. Analysis charts show a
stationary boundary over north-central Florida with a weak
shortwave over north Florida along the stationary boundary. A
surface trough is situated over the southwest Atlantic to the
northeast of the local Atlantic waters. Temperatures are in the
upper 70s to mid 80s, mainly where it has recently rained near the
coast north of Martin county and the upper 80s to low 90s
elsewhere with dew points in the low 70s to low 80s. Heat index
values are up to 108-111 are observed where a Heat Advisory is in
effect until 6PM over Okeechobee and Martin counties.

Scattered to numerous showers (PoPs ~ 60-70%) and lightning
storms are forecast to develop west of the storms near the coast
as interactions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from
previous storms. Rain shower and storm chances gradually diminish
after sunset (PoPs ~ 20-40%) before ending by midnight. The main
hazards will be heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning,
and wind gusts up to 40-50mph with storm motion to the east.
Rainfall amounts of 1-3" (locally up to 4") will have the
potential to produce minor flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor
drainage areas due to already saturated soils. Patchy dense fog is
forecast overnight which will have the potential to reduce
visibility to 1/2 mile or less after 2am and before it is
expected to dissipate around 9am. Low temperatures in the low to
upper 70s are forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday... Lower rain shower and lightning storm chances are
forecast Sunday (PoPs ~ 30-50%) with drier air (PWATs ~ 1.5-2")
expected over east central Florida behind the developing low over
the southwest Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has
outlooked the aforementioned low with a 50% chance of tropical
development early next week as it tracks north farther away from
the eastern Florida coast. Scattered showers and lightning storms
are forecast to develop over east central Florida into the
afternoon and evening Sunday. The main hazards will be occasional
lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 30-40mph, and moderate to
locally heavy rainfall. Light west-northwest winds are forecast
to veer north-northeast into the afternoon and evening hours at
5-10mph.Afternoon highs in the upper 80 to low 90s with heat
index values up to 100-107 and a Moderate HeatRisk are forecast
Sunday. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to
heat. It is recommended to take frequent breaks from the heat and
stay hydrated, especially if spending extended periods of time
outdoors this afternoon.

Monday-Friday (modified previous discussion)... Regional
attention turns to a weak non-tropical area of low pressure along
the aforementioned weak frontal boundary off of north FL/southeast
U.S. early in the period. This feature has a 50% chance of
tropical development early next week as it is forecast to move
north towards the Carolina coasts early next week. Movement will
generally be towards the NNW (twd Carolinas/mid AA weak surface
Otherwise, drier air over the GoMex remains forecast to move into
the central peninsula into much of the next week. While lower
PWATs are expected, a daily sea breeze along the east coast is
expected to develop under a weak pressure gradient in place. Inland
movement each afternoon will have the potential to be stymied
somewhat with continued light offshore flow in the low-levels.
Storm steering motion will remain to the north-northeast with the
highest coverage of storms (40-50%) forecast across the eastern
peninsula each afternoon/early evening. While warmer temperatures
aloft will exist thru Sunday night, there is cooling forecast at
H500 (-7C to -8C) which could aid destabilization each day. A
messy/troughy pattern in the mid-levels will exist from the mid
Atlc thru the southeast U.S. and north FL during this period with
periodic shortwave impulses expected to traverse the area.
Afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s each day, with overnight mins
in the L-M70s, except U70s along the immediate Space/Treasure
coasts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 434 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Currently-Tonight... Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers
and lightning storms are forecast this evening and into the
overnight. The main hazards will be occasional to frequent
lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall. North-
northeast winds at 6-12kts are forecast to back west-northwest
overnight. Seas are forecast to build up to 2-3ft nearshore with
up to 4ft over the Gulf Stream and up to 5ft over the offshore
Volusia and northern Brevard waters into the early morning Sunday.

Sunday-Wednesday (modified previous discussion)... Storm motion
to the east-northeast is expected which will bring offshore moving
showers/storms across the local waters Sunday into next week.
ECSB formation is forecast each day with light onshore winds
developing into the afternoon. Winds speeds at 6-12 kts (outside
of convection) into next week. Wave heights are forecast to build
Sunday into early next week due to increasing long period
northerly swells. Seas are forecast to reach 6-8 ft offshore and
over the Gulf Stream Sunday through Tuesday with seas up to 4-6ft
expected nearshore. Seas are forecast to slowly subside Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday. Seas up to 1-3ft are forecast nearshore
and up to 4ft over the offshore waters, as well as the Gulf Stream
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 434 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The Saint Johns River near Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate
Flood (around 3.1-3.2 ft) into mid next week. The potential exists
for small additional rises if locally heavy rainfall develops over
the river basin.

Additional rises are forecast for points farther south along the
Saint Johns River, such as Deland and Sanford which are forecast
to reach Action Stage Sunday, in addition to Geneva on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Activity starting to pop up across east central Florida, with VCTS
across all terminals through 00Z. Today will likely be higher
coverage compared to the last couple of days. TEMPOs in place
between 18 to 22Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA at all
terminals except DAB. Activity will diminish tonight, with
lingering VCSH along the Treasure Coast terminals and MLB through
02Z. Dry overnight, with winds becoming light and variable. Some
hints in some of the guidance at the potential for some VIS
reductions overnight due to fog, but confidence in this does
remain low at this time. Will need to reevaluate with future
packages. Winds are forecast to pick up out of the NE at 5 to 10
knots after 15Z at all terminals. Looks like the forecast is
calling for less coverage tomorrow of showers and storms, but any
activity will start to pick up beyond 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  75  88 /  20  30  20  50
MCO  75  92  75  91 /  20  40  10  50
MLB  77  90  77  90 /  30  30  20  40
VRB  76  92  76  90 /  40  50  20  40
LEE  75  90  74  90 /  10  30  10  50
SFB  75  90  74  90 /  10  40  10  50
ORL  76  92  76  91 /  10  40  10  50
FPR  76  92  76  90 /  40  50  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-159-164-259-
     264.

AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1015 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-150300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1015 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are
expected this afternoon with storm motion generally to the east
at 5 to 10 mph. Primary storm threats remain gusty winds up to 30
to 45 mph, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and locally
heavy rainfall.

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IMPACT...
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (locally up to 4 inches) over
already saturated ground will have the potential to produce minor
flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Very warm temperatures and high humidity will combine to produce
peak afternoon heat index values of 102 to 107 degrees with up to
110 degrees across portions of Okeechobee, Saint Lucie and Martin
counties. A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon for the
aforementioned three counties. A Moderate to High Heat Risk
exists across all of east central Florida today. This level of
heat can affect anyone without adequate precautions. It is
recommended to take frequent breaks from the heat and stay
hydrated, especially if spending extended periods of time outdoors
during the afternoon.

.RIP CURRENT AND SURF IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all
central Florida Atlantic beaches. Remember to always swim near a
lifeguard and never enter the water alone.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate
Flood stage. The potential for small additional rises exists if
locally heavy rainfall develops over the river basin. Please
refer to the associated Flood Warning for the Saint Johns River at
Astor for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast on Sunday into
next week. The main hazards will be locally heavy rainfall,
lightning strikes, and gusty winds.

Warm temperatures and high humidity will produce peak heat index
values up to 100 to 107 degrees through early next week. Slightly
lower humidity mid week next week will allow heat index values to
fall into the low 100s.

A Moderate to High risk of dangerous rip currents is expected at
the beaches through the extended.

High astronomical tides will produce above normal water levels
around the times of high tide from Sunday evening through much of
next week. This may cause minor inundation of low lying
properties near inlets, nearby areas along the Intracoastal
Waterway, and adjacent canals. Some docks may briefly get
overtopped by water.

Increasing long period swells will build seas Sunday through
Tuesday with poor to hazardous boating conditions forecast over
the local Atlantic.

Flooding along the Saint Johns River (particularly at Astor) will
continue Sunday through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Fehling/Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
315 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

FLZ154-647-141945-
Coastal Indian River FL-Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
315 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 314 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Roseland, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sebastian, Indian River Shores, Roseland, Gifford, and Winter Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2766 8048 2781 8055 2782 8055 2783 8056
      2786 8046 2786 8045 2787 8045 2787 8042
      2768 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 330DEG 7KT 2784 8049

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Leahy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
343 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

FLZ154-159-164-254-259-547-647-747-142015-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Coastal St. Lucie FL-
Inland St. Lucie FL-Inland Indian River FL-Coastal Indian River FL-
Coastal Martin FL-Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
Inland Southern Brevard FL-
343 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ST. LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...
NORTHEASTERN MARTIN AND SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
EDT...

At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Indian River Shores, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie, Walton, Fort Pierce, Sebastian, and Stuart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2720 8013 2721 8055 2750 8068 2756 8068
      2756 8071 2761 8073 2790 8068 2792 8059
      2789 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 296DEG 11KT 2773 8040

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Tollefsen

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
344 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 N Sebastian Inlet Sta 27.86N 80.44W
09/14/2024  M45 MPH          AMZ552             FL   Mesonet

            The mesonet site at Sebastian Inlet measured
            a wind gust of 45MPH/39KTS from the north.

&&

CL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
358 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WNW Vero Beach        27.65N 80.42W
09/14/2024  M44 MPH          Indian River       FL   ASOS

            The ASOS at the Vero Beach Regional Airport
            measured a wind gust of 44MPH/38KTS from the
            north-northwest. At 3:39pm the ASOS then
            reported a gust to 51MPH/44KTS from the
            north.

&&

CL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
405 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Vero Beach          27.63N 80.39W
09/14/2024  M43 MPH          Indian River       FL   Mesonet

            The Weather Flow Site Vero City (XVER)
            measured a wind gust of 43MPH/37KTS from the
            north-northwest.

&&

CL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
412 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

FLZ154-159-164-259-142045-
Coastal St. Lucie FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Coastal Indian River FL-
Coastal Martin FL-
412 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ST. LUCIE...SOUTHEASTERN
INDIAN RIVER AND NORTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Queens Cove, or near Indrio, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie, Walton, Fort Pierce, Stuart, and Vero Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2721 8044 2739 8050 2764 8037 2766 8033
      2719 8013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 286DEG 22KT 2752 8030

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Tollefsen