Beach Hazards Statement 26, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
531 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 530 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

- Seasonable to above normal temperatures are forecast through
  this week and into the weekend

- Poor boating conditions are expected offshore before improving
  on Wednesday and then become poor to hazardous over the local
  Atlantic waters late week

- Onshore flow is forecast mid to late week with onshore moving
  scattered showers forecast primarily into each afternoon

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 530 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Currently-Tuesday... Local radar imagery shows scattered showers
over the Brevard and Treasure Coast Atlantic waters with isolated
showers/sprinkles over central Brevard and Osceola counties.
GOES-16 satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies. A
weak coastal trough is situated over the east central Florida
waters near the coast and to the north of the local Atlantic
waters. Additionally, PWAT values are in the 0.7-0.9" range over
east central Florida. Temperatures are currently in the low 50s to
low 60s with dew points in the upper 40s to low 60s.

The aforementioned coastal trough is expected to gradually move
north-northeast over the western Atlantic waters to the north
of the east central Florida waters on Tuesday. Isolated to
scattered showers (PoPs ~ 20-40%) are forecast into this
afternoon mainly over the coastal counties, in addition to,
Okeechobee and Osceola counties. Rain chances gradually decrease
overnight into Tuesday with isolated to widely scattered (PoPs ~
20-30%) forecast over the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county on
Tuesday. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s are forecast north
of I-4 with the mid to upper 70s to the south under partly cloudy
to partly sunny skies. High temperatures in the upper 60s to low
70s are forecast north of I-4 with the mid to upper 70s to the
south under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies on Tuesday. Low
temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s are expected north of I-4
with the mid 50s to low 60s to the south Tuesday morning. East-
northeast winds at 5-15mph are forecast this afternoon and Tuesday
afternoon with gusts to 20-25mph

Wednesday-Thursday... Onshore flow is forecast to develop on
Wednesday behind the trough as high pressure (~ 1034mb) builds to
the north of east central Florida over the northeastern CONUS mid
to late week. Rain shower chances increase mid to late week with
PWAT values between 1.0-1.75." Isolated to scattered showers (PoPs
~20-40%) are forecast each day with the greatest potential into
each afternoon. Lightning has been kept out over land with limited
instability (MLCAPE 500 J/kg or less) expected on with isolated
lightning storms forecast over the local Atlantic waters on
Thursday. Afternoon highs in the low to around 80 degrees are
forecast. Low temperatures in the low 50s to mid 60s are forecast
Wednesday morning with the mid 50s to mid 60s forecast Thursday
morning.

Friday-Sunday...Scattered showers are forecast Friday morning with
onshore flow in place and PWATs between 1.01.75." Guidance begins
to diverge in potential solutions Friday and into the weekend
with the GFS indicating the potential for periods of heavy
rainfall Friday afternoon and into the weekend as low pressure
develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, that scenario
is less likely given that guidance is in good agreement that a
mid/upper level ridge will be over the state of Florida Friday and
into the weekend. Regardless, isolated to scattered showers (PoPs
~ 20-40%) are forecast with persistent onshore flow is expected.
Additionally, winds will be breezy from the east

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Currently-Tuesday... Poor boating conditions are expected over the
offshore (20-60nm) east central Florida Atlantic waters and over
the nearshore Volusia county Atlantic waters. Isolated to
numerous showers (PoPs 20-60%) are forecast with potential for
gusty winds. East-northeast winds at around 10-15kts are
forecast. Seas are expected to build to 3-5ft with up to 6ft over
the offshore (20-60nm) east central Florida Atlantic waters and
over the nearshore Volusia county Atlantic waters.

Wednesday-Friday... Poor boating conditions are forecast to
improve Wednesday before becoming poor to hazardous Thursday into
Friday. Onshore flow is forecast mid to late week with scattered
onshore moving showers (PoPs 20-50%). East winds at 10-15kts are
forecast to increase to 15-20kts Thursday night into Friday. Seas
to 3-5ft are forecast to increase to up to 6ft over the Volusia
county offshore (20-60nm) waters Thursday evening with up to 6-7ft
forecast across all of the local Atlantic waters into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1242 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

BKN CIGs have lifted to 040-060, resuming VFR conditions at most
ECFL terminals. Exceptions being KMLB, where SHRA associated with
a coastal trough are about to reach the terminal, producing
periodic MVFR-IFR VIS and MVFR CIG reductions through around 09Z.
SHRA will lift north, likely reaching KTIX around 12Z, but held
of TEMPO for KTIX due to uncertainty if the band will still be
producing impacts by that time. Inland terminals continue VCSH due
to low confidence SHRA capable of impacts will make it that far
inland tonight. Mainly dry conditions expected at inland terminals
by morning, while SHRA continue to skim the coast INVOF the the
coastal terminals. Winds N-NE 5-10 kts will be a bit shifty today
due to the coastal trough. Guidance indicating potential for some
VIS/CIG reductions tonight into Tuesday morning at inland and
northern terminals, and will monitor trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  52  68  54 /  20  20  10   0
MCO  74  54  74  56 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  75  57  73  59 /  30  20  10  10
VRB  77  58  76  61 /  30  20  20  20
LEE  72  51  72  52 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  73  53  72  54 /  10  10  10   0
ORL  74  54  74  56 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  76  58  75  61 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
557 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-230300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
557 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

.RIP CURRENT AND SURF IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents exists at all central
Florida Atlantic beaches. In addition, freshening northerly winds
could also develop a longshore current, rough surf, and large
breaking waves at Volusia and northern Brevard beaches later in
the afternoon. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the
water alone.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Northeasterly winds increase to 15 to 20 knots from the Cape
north, up to around 20 knots near the Volusia Coast later this
morning and afternoon. Seas build to 6 ft off the Volusia coast,
and 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Poor to hazardous beach and marine conditions due to long period
swells and moderate to fresh onshore flow will be possible
through the first half of the week.

Isolated lightning storms will be possible over the Atlantic
waters mid to late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Haley