Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
337 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with damaging wind
  and small hail as the primary threats. An isolated tornado
  cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain becomes the main threat
  tonight.

- Warm/muggy conditions continue through Tuesday.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon. An
  isolated severe storm with wind and hail possible during the
  afternoon to evening hours. Additional thunderstorms develop
  Tuesday night into Wednesday along a cold front.

- Northwest winds bring cooler and drier air to southern
  Wisconsin for the second half of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 337 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Showers and storms have developed along the MCV boundary along the
Mississippi River. These storms are expected to progress east
northeastward tonight and combine with a lingering boundary
draped from Port Washington to Madison, leading to severe
weather potential across southern and southwestern Wisconsin.
The primary threat with these storms looks to be wind, with
surface based CAPE values near 2000 J/kg in southwestern
Wisconsin and close to 1000 J/kg in southeastern Wisconsin
combining with PWATs near 1.5 inches and equilibrium levels near
40 kft to produce favorable conditions for wet microbursts.
Threat for large hail (greater than one inch in diameter) still
exists within stronger cells, especially going into this
evening. However, mid-level lapse rates only near 6.5 degrees
C/km is expected to inhibit explosive growth and mitigate hail
sizes.

Mesoscale modeling is indicating SRH in the lowest km will
increase to near 100 m2/s2 into this evening as storms develop
cold pools, leading to a chance for an isolated tornado along
line segments.

As storms become cold pool dominant late tonight, heavy rain
becomes the primary threat. PWAT values are forecast to be near
1.5 inches, with warm, moist southeasterly to southerly flow
throughout the overnight hours. Storms that manage to develop
parallel to shear may produce training thunderstorms that
produce heavy rain. MUCAPE remains around 700 J/kg throughout
the overnight hours, so generally not expecting all PWATs to be
realized as rainfall. However, the environment is primed for
heavy rainfall and flooding potential will be monitored tonight.

Rain diminishes and moves out into Tuesday morning, with
clearing skies and continued southerly flow bringing in
additional instability and assisting with atmospheric recovery.
Surface based CAPE values near 2500 J/kg are possible, with a
few CAMS indicating solutions up to 3000 J/kg. A shortwave
moving northeastward through southern Wisconsin will then have
the potential to kick off additional thunderstorms in this
primed airmass. Bulk shear values remain near 25 kt, which may
provide a mitigating factor in severe weather. However, damaging
wind gusts and hail are possible within stronger thunderstorms.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

The main cold front that is associated with an extension of vorticity
that stems from a closed upper low stationed over central Alberta
Canada will push through WI early Wednesday. The showers and
thunderstorms along that front are expected to clear southeast WI
by mid morning, but likely by 7 AM. Another shortwave trough that
is rounding the base of the closed upper low will slide into
southern WI during the late afternoon or evening. This will help
to steepen the low and mid level lapse rates over southern WI and
allow for scattered showers. Models are not showing super steep
rates right now because the wave might come through past the peak
daytime heating, so thunder seems less likely, but kept the
mention in the forecast for now.

We will remain under that cyclonic flow until Friday night when
the upper low finally shifts into the eastern Great Lakes region.
Highs will be in the lower 70s Thu-Fri, with lows in the lower
50s. There may be scattered afternoon showers each day, but
moisture might be too sparse. There will at least be widespread
diurnal cumulus clouds each day.

Yet another weak shortwave should move through Saturday afternoon
and night, thus another chance for showers and storms. More
sunshine, slight ridging, and a little return moisture will allow
for temps to get back into the mid-upper 70s for the weekend.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 337 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across southern Wisconsin
through tonight. Ceilings have generally remained VFR, but a few
pockets of 15 to 25 kft cloud decks have developed within
heavier activity. Storms slowly pushing eastward in far southern
Wisconsin remain capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to
50 kt and small hail. An isolated tornado is unlikely, but
cannot be ruled out into the evening hours. Heavy rain is
possible along Lake Michigan and in far southern Wisconsin
tonight as storms redevelop over the same areas. Storms diminish
late tonight, with patchy fog expected in valley areas.
Southerly breezes will largely diminish tonight after storms
move through, increasing again into Tuesday morning.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 337 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Low pressure centered over northern Minnesota will continue to
weaken and light southerly winds will persist. Dense fog is
possible over the north half tonight, but there is not enough
confidence to issue a headline at this time. Patchy dense fog is
possible in nearshore regions as well after rain and storms
exit.

A low pressure trough will cross the Northern Plains tonight
through Tuesday. Southerly winds are expected ahead of the
associated cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
through late tonight and again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The cold front will cross Lake Michigan early Wednesday morning
and the widespread showers and storms will end. Winds will veer
westerly and scattered showers are possible each afternoon
through the weekend. Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory
criteria at times during this period. Westerly winds continue
through the end of the week as low pressure over south central
Canada weakens.

Cronce/MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
227 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-041930-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
227 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the area will continue to
produce small hail and gusty winds into this evening.

Additional thunderstorm development will occur late this
afternoon into this evening across southern Wisconsin, with severe
storms possible. Expect the main hazards to be damaging winds and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There will be chances for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

LMZ643>646-041930-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
227 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Some storms may be severe, with wind gusts and hail as the
primary threat.

Patchy dense fog is possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There will be chances for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-041930-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
227 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms this evening into tonight.

Fog is possible tonight, and could become locally dense across northern
portions of the open waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There will be chances for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

WIZ069-032030-
Rock WI-
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ROCK COUNTY THROUGH 330
PM CDT...

At 243 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Footville, or 9 miles southwest of Janesville, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Janesville, Milton, Edgerton, Orfordville, Footville, Lake
Koshkonong, Fulton, Hanover, Afton, Johnstown Center, Indianford,
Leyden, and Lima Center.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 39/90 between mile markers 162 and 178.
 Wisconsin Highway 26 between mile markers 6 and 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 8935 4285 8914 4285 8887 4284 8878
      4272 8878 4251 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 225DEG 21KT 4263 8919

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KUROSKI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
257 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

WIZ069-032045-
Rock WI-
257 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ROCK COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM CDT...

At 257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Durand, or 9 miles southeast of Brodhead, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brodhead, Orfordville, Newark, Hanover, and Avon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8937 4269 8937 4263 8907 4250 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 202DEG 20KT 4249 8930

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KUROSKI

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