Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
310 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No changes to Heat Warnings and Advisories, though there is
  uncertainty regarding temperatures, especially over central
  Wisconsin.

- Conditional severe weather threat this afternoon and evening,
  with large hail and gusty winds if storms are able to form.

- Somewhat cooler and less humid Wednesday and Thursday, with
  additional rain chances Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Today through Wednesday:

A complex of thunderstorms moved across central and northern
Wisconsin late last night, and has pushed off to the east. There
is a remnant outflow boundary from these storms across central
and east central Wisconsin, and this may serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as early as mid day, as an MCV
associated with convection over Nebraska moves across southern
Minnesota and into west central Wisconsin. Despite the very hot
and humid airmass, warm air aloft calls into question whether
storms will be able to develop. If they do form, gusty winds and
large hail will be possible.

Thunderstorm chances increase somewhat into the 40-50% range by
late afternoon and early evening, as the primary shortwave
moves across the central portion of the state, and a cold front
starts to move southward toward the area. Again, capping aloft
may limit overall coverage/development, but any convection that
does form will certainly have the potential for strong downburst
winds, along with large hail. Any convection that does form
should progress southeastward, exiting the area by around
midnight.

Cloud cover associated with the early morning convection, and
the potential for scattered storms as early as early afternoon,
is resulting in fairly high uncertainty with high temperatures
today, especially over the northern half of the area. Given the
airmass in place, just an extra hour or two difference in
sunshine could make the difference between hitting Excessive
Heat Warning levels (heat indices of 105+), or not even quite
making it to Advisory levels (100). Given the uncertainty, it
didn't seem prudent to make any changes to the Excessive Heat
Warning and Advisory that are already out, so those remain
unchanged this morning. Bottom line is that it will be hot and
very very humid, and proper precautions should be taken.

With various outflows across the area, the frontal boundary
dropping in from the north will likely be fairly defuse by
Wednesday morning, but generally should stretch across southern
Minnesota to northeastern Iowa and eastward across northern
Illinois. Additional thunderstorm development is possible
Wednesday along this boundary, with a few of those storms
perhaps sneaking into far southern and southeastern Wisconsin.

Temperatures Wednesday will be cooler, though still summerlike,
with readings ranging from the mid to upper 70s over east
central Wisconsin to the low to mid 80s over south central.
Dewpoints will be in the 60s, making it feel much more tolerable
than yesterday or today.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Wednesday night through Monday:

Strong high pressure over Quebec on Thursday will work with an
approaching low pressure (traversing southern Canada) to drive
easterly winds off of Lake Michigan, keeping Thursday's daytime
highs in the mid 70s to around 80 in lakeshore counties, up to the
mid 80s further inland. Generally expecting dry weather until the
cold front (extending south of the low) drifts into our region.
Some 10 to 40% precip chances (highest further west in the CWA)
are in Thursday afternoon's forecast, mainly on account of
possible warm sector convection, but the bulk of the shower /
storm activity is expected with the frontal passage overnight
Thursday night.

West winds are expected behind the front on Friday, with temps
in the low to mid 80s all areas. Showers / weaker storms along
the front may linger into Friday (esp. for the far southeastern
corner of WI, 30% chances) on account of timing uncertainty with
the frontal passage, but the rest of this weekend is looking
mostly dry for now.

High pressure building into the Dakotas Sunday morning may force
a dry cold front through the area, shifting winds from west (on
Saturday) to northwest (on Sunday) and continuing the cooling
trend, sending highs into the 70s for Sunday and Monday.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

VFR is prevailing this morning, though with some small,
transient areas of MVFR fog and low stratus. Winds will be light
from the south going into the morning hours today.

There are several uncertain chances for thunderstorms today,
with the initial chances mid day/early afternoon, with somewhat
better chances (40-50%) late this afternoon and early this
evening. These storms, if they form, will have the potential of
producing gusty winds and large hail. Reductions in flight
categories can be expected in and around any convection.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 310 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Variable winds are in place across the lake this morning, as a
complex of thunderstorms moves through the region. Winds will
generally return to a southerly direction later this morning, with
a cold front then moving south through the lake this afternoon and
tonight, with winds turning northerly to northeasterly behind the
front. Additional thunderstorms are possible later today into
tonight.

High pressure will move southeast through Ontario on Wednesday
into Thursday morning, with winds more easterly with time.
Another cold front looks to move through the Great Lakes region
Thursday night into Friday, shifting winds to the south ahead of
said front and bringing shower and storm chances back to Lake
Michigan.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Excessive Heat Warning...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-
     WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-
     WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...11 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Tuesday.

     Heat Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052...11 AM Tuesday to
     7 PM Tuesday.

LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
316 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-280830-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
316 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Any storms that form will have the potential of producing high
winds and large hail.

Heat indices between 100 and 108 are expected across the area
today. See the latest Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
for additional information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms are possible over far southern and
southeastern Wisconsin Wednesday, with additional thunderstorm
chances Thursday night and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-280830-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
316 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Any storms that form will have the potential of producing high
winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms are possible south of Milwaukee Wednesday,
with additional thunderstorm chances Thursday night and Friday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-280830-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
316 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Any storms that form will have the potential of producing high
winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern third of the
lake Wednesday, with additional thunderstorm chances across the
entire lake on Thursday night and Friday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

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