River Flood Warning 50, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
929 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms shifting east across far southeast Wisconsin and
  showing a slow weakening trend. They should exit over the next
  one to two hours.

- Drier, quieter weather conditions return behind a departing
  cold front by mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The line of severe storms looks to be slowly weakening as it
shifts through the rest of far southeast Wisconsin. This
activity should exit the far southeast over the next one to two
hours. There may be some lingering showers and a few storms at
times for the next few hours, before dissipating. Localized
flooding may linger for the next few hours with the recent
heavy rainfall over already saturated ground.

There may be some low clouds and fog that develops overnight
into Tuesday morning, as winds weaken behind the front and dew
points remain in the middle to upper 60s.

There is a small chance (15 to 20 percent) for showers to
develop Tuesday afternoon, as weak instability develops with an
approaching 500 mb trough. The exiting cold front may also kick
off a few showers. Dew points will be rather slow to drop with
the northwest winds, so it will still feel humid with highs in
the lower 80s.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 250 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539 now in effect for south central
WI until 04Z.

Scattered convection has begun along and near a warm front over
central IA. The front then extends into the Quad Cities area
and IL. Farther to the north an area of showers and embedded
thunder continues along the MN/IA border. Expecting storms to
erupt along the front but also extend to the north where a
shortwave trough is approaching. A swly 20-25 kt LLJ will aid
lift and moisture transport across nrn IL and srn WI during this
time. Abundant MLCAPE of 4000-5000 J/KG is present along and
south of the warm front, but still 2000-3000 J/KG over srn WI
but with some MLCIN. The trends of higher CAPE and less CIN will
continue over the next several hours as thetae advection
increases on the nose of the LLJ.

The latest Warn on Forecast ensemble develops a mature QLCS by
early evening with the nrn bookend vortex affecting far srn WI
with not much development to the north. Will not fully commit to
the ensemble and count on some development farther north.
Widespread damaging winds could develop with this QLCS over far
srn WI into nrn IL where steeper lapse rates and higher DCAPE
will be present. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with 0-3
KM wly shear around 30 kts in addition to effective SRH
increasing to near 200 ms/s2 near the IL border. Much of the
strong to severe convection should by over by 03Z.

The cold front will then pass during the early morning hours
with some stratus cloud cover in the wake of it especially
during the initial heating of the day. Gradual cold advection
will continue Tue-Tue nt as a large upper trough will swing from
Ontario into the wrn Great Lakes. The upper trough could
support enough instability for a few showers north of Madison
and Milwaukee for Tue aft-nt.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 250 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

Weather quiets down significantly for the later half of the
week. Despite an anomalously deep 500hPa trough pivoting across
the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, height rises combined with
warmer, dry air above roughly 5kft and high pressure near the
surface should inhibit any shower or storm development although
cumulus is expected in the afternoon. However, there is also
noticeable CAA at 500hPa to help steepen mid-level lapse rates
which would help increase positive buoyancy in the mid levels
should parcels be able to get above the warmer cap. Any shower
development is expected to remain north of our area, but there
is a small chance (~15%) that our northern counties may see a
shower or two Wednesday afternoon.

Surface high pressure will then dominant the region as we head
into the weekend leading to daily chances for cumulus
development and high temperatures generally in the mid to upper
70s. Models then indicate an area of low pressure developing
over the Great Plains this weekend which may allow for some
showers and storms to impact southern Wisconsin as it decays to
our west.

Falkinham

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The line of severe storms looks to be slowly weakening as it
shifts through the rest of far southeast Wisconsin, affecting
the Kenosha terminal for the next 30 to 45 minutes. This
activity should exit the far southeast over the next one to two
hours. There may be some lingering showers and a few storms at
times for the next few hours, before dissipating.

There may be some low clouds and fog that develops overnight
into Tuesday morning, as winds weaken behind the front and
moisture lingers. Ceilings of 800 to 1300 feet AGL may occur
during this time, with visibility values in the 2 to 5 mile
range at times. Southwest winds will gradually shift northwest
overnight into Tuesday, as the main cold front moves through.

There is a small chance for showers to develop Tuesday
afternoon. The exiting cold front may also kick off a few
showers. VFR conditions should return by midday and into the
afternoon, with scattered diurnal cumulus clouds developing.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will cross the southern portions of the
lake into the overnight hours, as a cold front moves across
Wisconsin. Severe storms with strong winds are the primary hazard,
but large hail is also a concern. Strong storms are also expected
across the far northern portions of the lake.

Winds will be from the southwest ahead of the cold front, and
will turn to a northwesterly direction overnight into Tuesday
behind the cold front.

High pressure around 30.1 inches will sink south into the Great
Lakes region on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing quieter weather to
the region through the rest of the week. Winds will be from the
north to northwest on Wednesday. Winds will become lighter and
more variable on Friday, as the high moves eastward over the
lake.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
901 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-170215-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
901 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to move
east across far southern Wisconsin this evening, with severe
storms confined to near the Illinois border. Damaging winds are
the main hazard, along with a few tornadoes. Urban and small
stream flooding may occur with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening.

LMZ643>646-170215-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
901 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to move
east across far southern Wisconsin and into southern Lake Michigan
this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds are the
main hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-170215-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
901 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to move
east across southern Lake Michigan this evening into the
overnight hours. Damaging winds are the main hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
906 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Brodhead          42.66N 89.41W
07/15/2024                   Green              WI   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reports lots of trees down
            between Albany and Brodhead.

&&

NRF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
911 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 S Browntown           42.51N 89.80W
07/15/2024                   Green              WI   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reports some trees down near
            Martintown.

&&

NRF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
912 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Monroe                  42.59N 89.64W
07/15/2024                   Green              WI   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reports scattered trees down
            across Green County.

&&

NRF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
914 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Kenosha            42.57N 87.82W
07/15/2024                   Kenosha            WI   911 Call Center

            Street flooding in Kenosha and Pleasant
            Prairie. Water up to the bottom of vehicles.

&&

MG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
930 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     Flood            2 WSW Brooklyn          42.85N 89.41W
07/15/2024                   Green              WI   911 Call Center

            Several inches of water over the road at
            Highway 92 and Glenway Road.

&&

MG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
933 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Flood            Albany                  42.71N 89.43W
07/15/2024                   Green              WI   911 Call Center

            Street flooding in Albany.

&&

MG