Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
223 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak boundary will stall over the area through tonight, moving
back south as a cold front late Tuesday. High pressure builds in
to close out the rest of the week. Another front will move
through the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

 - Heavy rain, flooding, and a few strong to severe
   thunderstorms possible through this evening

An area of low pressure over south-central NC will progress ENE
across the northern counties of ENC through this afternoon,
then shift offshore by this evening. This low will travel along
a stationary front that is draped west to east across ENC.
Modest low- mid level WAA and increased low-level convergence
continue to support scattered convection along the stalled front
at this time. Mid-level lapse rates remain poor, but continued
heating of a moist boundary layer should support MLCAPE of
500-1000j/kg through early this evening. Meanwhile, east of an
upper low over the TN Vally, there is an area of enhanced low-
mid level flow over the Carolinas. This is supporting deep layer
shear of 45-55kt. Of note, the 12z MHX sounding shows effective
shear over 50kt. At face value, the shear/instability combo is
supportive of a risk of severe thunderstorms. One of the
limiting factors today, however, is a notable warm layer just
below 500mb, as evidenced on recent ACARS soundings from RAH.
This appears to be preventing deeper convection from
materializing at the moment, and is likely why there has been
very little lightning thus far, despite some decent mid-level
rotation noted at times.

South of the stationary boundary, forecast soundings suggest
the warm layer aloft could be overcome where sufficient
heating/moistening occurs. Low-level helicity in the 0-2km layer
is forecast to hover around 100 m2/s2, which is on the margins
for tornado potential. However, an area of high 3CAPE
(150-200j/kg) overlapped with the surface boundary may provide
just enough low- level stretching for a conditional tornado
risk. SPC's recent DY1 upgrade nicely highlights the risk area.
There will also continue to be a risk of gusty winds with the
strongest cores, as well as a heavy rain/flood risk (thanks to
high PWATs for this time of year).

Later this evening and into tonight, convection should begin to
wane with the loss of daytime heating. However, with the
boundary in the area, some shower activity may linger. Through
the night, low level clouds will tend to linger, and may lower
on the north side of the front, with some potential for fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

 - Shower risk continues

Low pressure will continue to pull away from the OBX on
Tuesday, allowing a cold front to get dragged south through all
of ENC by Tuesday night. Along the front, there will continue to
be risk of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
risk will decrease from north to south in the wake of the front.
Despite decent shear, instability is forecast to be lower
tomorrow, and this should keep the risk of strong thunderstorms
on the low side. Temperatures will trend cooler tomorrow
compared to today, thanks to the front moving through and the
potential for widespread clouds and scattered showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 0400 Monday...Unsettled pattern to start the longterm with
a dry midweek front leading to slightly cooler temps and drier
pattern ahead of the next front which will impact the area this
weekend. Keeping close eyes on the potential for another
tropical system to develop in the Gulf of Mexico the latter half
of this week.

Mid to late-week...A northern stream wave will push a dry cold
front across the area on Wednesday as upper ridging builds
overhead from the S and SFC high pressure spills over the FA
from the N behind the departing cold front, supporting a dry
forecast with seasonal temps through Friday.

Weekend...The weekend will start with an upper trough digging
across the northeastern US and a cold front sliding across ENC
sometime on Saturday. This will be our next chance of shower
activity with chances greatest along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Tuesday/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

 - TSRA risk through this evening

 - Periods of sub-VFR conditions expected through Tuesday

 - IFR/LIFR conditions possible at times through Tuesday

An area of low pressure will move ENE through ENC this
afternoon, then move offshore by tonight. This will lead to an
increased risk of SHRA and SCT TSRA, especially through this
evening and again on Tuesday. Where SHRA and TSRA occur, there
will be an increased risk of IFR/LIFR conditions (mainly due to
reduced VIS). Of note, there is a low risk of 40kt+ gusts and
tornadoes where TSRA occur (mainly this afternoon and early this
evening). Later this evening through early Tuesday morning,
CIGs are expected to lower along and behind a stalled frontal
boundary draped west to east across the area. Reduced VIS may
accompany the lower CIGs as well, especially from KISO to KPGV.
We'll be keeping an eye on the potential for IFR/LIFR CIGs/VIS
tonight, along with some FG potential. CIGs will likely be slow
to rise on Tuesday thanks to the front in the area, and slowed
heating/mixing.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 0400 Monday...Convection on a slowly Sward sinking
boundary Tuesday will present multiple opportunities for sub-
VFR conditions. VFR flight cats expected to prevail from
midweek on in drier air behind Wed's dry FROPA. Rain chances not
returning to the forecast until the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 215 PM Mon...Latest obs show variable winds 5-15 kt
ranging from NE across the northern waters to WSW across the
southern waters. A weak stationary front will linger across the
waters today, keeping winds 5-15 kt and directions variable.
Seas 2-3 ft today, building to 2-4 ft, possibly up to 5 ft
across the outer northern waters early Tue morning with
persistent NE-E flow.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 0400 Monday...A stalled boundary slowly sinks Sward
through the day Tuesday with a wave of low pressure developing
along the boundary late, leading to increased N-Nerly swell
which is expected to generate SCA criteria seas. Winds generally
10-15kt, NEerly N of the boundary, SWerly to the S seas 2-4ft
early building to 2-5 through the day Tuesday. Showers and
tstorms possible along this boundary. Winds become more NEerly
10-20kt Wed persisting through Thursday. Seas will respond by
building to 6 ft across the northern and central waters by early
Wednesday and peaking around 7 ft by Wednesday afternoon. SCA
seas will likely continue through at least Thursday evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1243 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-011645-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
1243 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today will be
capable of very heavy rainfall and possible flooding. In addition,
there will be a risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable
of 40 to 60 mph wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-199-203>205-011645-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
1243 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today will be
capable of very heavy rainfall and possible flooding. In addition,
there will be a risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable
of 40 to 60 mph wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
405 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

NCZ044-079-302030-
Greene NC-Pitt NC-
405 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENE AND WEST CENTRAL
PITT COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Snow Hill, or 9 miles southwest of Farmville, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Farmville, Snow Hill, Maury, Ormondsville, Lizzie, Castoria, and Fort
Run VFD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 7775 3550 7780 3564 7758 3545 7747
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 246DEG 11KT 3548 7769

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RJ