River Flood Warning 9, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
348 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push south through southern NC
this morning with cooler and drier high pressure building in
from the north behind it today. High pressure then remains over
the area tomorrow and Monday before eventually pushing offshore.
Heat and humidity rebuilds Tuesday onward with broad ridging
over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Sat...A cold front will push south of Eastern NC this
morning and bring an end to our recent wet pattern. But before
that happens scattered showers will continue for the next few
hours, especially along the Crystal Coast and Outer/Inner Banks
where activity will be the most widespread and continue through
at least mid morning.

Drier air will move into the area from the north later this
morning as high pressure builds in from the Mid-Atlantic. This
will cause quickly clearing skies across northern NC soon after
sunrise, while conditions remain cloudy and somewhat showery
further south until the afternoon as moisture from the front
hangs around just off the southern coast. Expect below normal
highs with readings mostly in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Dry high pressure will settle in over the
area tonight with mostly clear skies expected. Good radiational
cooling conditions will promote strong cooling inland, and
temperatures will drop into the low 60s here, and upper 60s to
low 70s along the coast. With the anticipated cooling and recent
heavy rains there will be a risk for some patchy fog
development, but not sure of the extent yet.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Sat...Drier pattern lingers into Monday before
returning to a more typical summertime pattern of scattered,
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms through the next work
week.

Sun through Mon...Cutoff low off the coast of the mid-
Atlantic will retreat back into New England to start the
period. High pressure will still be overhead to start Sunday,
but will quickly shift east over the Atlantic on Monday. Dry
conditions will continue both days as dry air and subsidence
spill over the Carolinas thanks to northerly flow aloft.
Conditions will feel more comfortable compared to the past
several days as dew points drop into the low to mid-60s,
especially across the coastal plain, while highs top out in the
mid to upper 80s - slightly below average for late July. By
Monday, as high pushes offshore southerly flow will usher in
higher dew points and a return to more typically humid
conditions.

Tues through Fri...Brief period of ridging aloft breaks down
after Monday as the cutoff low continues to meander westward
before being absorbed by the northern stream shortwave. This
will leave a general troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS
for the remainder of the week, meaning moist southwesterly flow
returns along with a more typical summertime regime
characterized by diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
Support aloft will not be nearly as strong, and moisture not as
anomalous as the previous several days, so climo PoPs are
appropriate for ENC starting Tuesday. Wednesday is trending
towards being the most favorable day for storms while troughing
is at its most pronounced. Mid- level heights rise above
average, and temperatures gradually follow suit, increasing to
near- normal readings in the low 90s by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/...
As of 2 AM Sat...MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to form
shortly as pooling low level moisture leads to the development
of widespread low level stratus in advance of drier air moving
in behind a cold front.

High confidence in MVFR and eventually IFR ceilings at all the
TAF terminals early this morning, with cloudbases as low as
500-800 ft. As drier air moves in from the north, locations
across the coastal plain could see low clouds scour out before
sunrise (including KPGV and KISO), while areas closer to the
coast (including KEWN and KOAJ) will likely see IFR conditions
continuing through around 9-10 am. Continued influx of dry air
today will allow for VFR conditions to return and continue
through tonight.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Sat...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast from
Sun into early next week as high pressure settles into the area.
Fog and low stratus are possible each night, although the
likelihood is higher starting Tuesday as high pressure moves
offshore and deeper moisture returns. Diurnal shower and
thunderstorm threat returns for all terminals starting Tuesday,
with best chances for coastal plain sites.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Marginal Small Craft conditions will develop
later this morning as NNE/NE flow increases behind a cold
front. SCAs have been issued for the coastal waters south of
Cape Hatteras and the Pamlico Sound until this evening.

Winds will be NE 10-20 kts early this morning, and then will
increase to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts from mid morning
through early this evening. Thereafter, winds will subside, and
become mostly NNE 10-20 kts overnight. Seas will be mostly 3-5
ft through the period, but could reach 6 ft occasionally south
of Cape Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 320 AM Fri...No hazardous marine conditions are
anticipated in the long term. High pressure remains over the
waters on Sunday before quickly moving offshore on Monday,
resulting in winds returning to a more typical south- to-
southwesterly flow to start the work week. Northeasterly winds
of 10-15 kt on Sunday return to a more typical southerly regime
at 5-10 kt, with typical increases in late afternoons as
thermal gradients increase. Seas gradually return to 2-4 feet
through the rest of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK/MS

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