Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
248 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered to the east in the Atlantic
through the weekend while multiple fronts impact ENC. The first
front will approach the region Friday, bringing increased shower
and thunderstorm chances. The front lifts back north on
Saturday with a second front approaching the area on Sunday
and then moving through on Monday, keeping things unsettled
into early next week before high pressure finally builds in from
the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Fri...Convection is evolving as anticipated this
afternoon with initiation both along the sea breeze and a
stalled cold front sitting roughly from Oregon Inlet to Little
Washington. Already seeing weak development in a sufficiently
buoyant airmass, but strongest storms are along the coast and
the frontal boundary itself where low-level forcing is
strongest.

Northern activity will gradually drift southward through the
day, while along the coast storm motions will be stalled and
highly dependent on erratic mesoscale influences (i.e. storm
outflow). Wind shear is typically weak but DCAPEs are exceeding
800 J/kg, especially south of the front, along with SBCAPEs at
around 3500-4000 J/kg. Combined with PWATs near 2", a few
isolated strong storms are possible capable of damaging winds
(40-60 mph gusts). Along the sea breeze where storm motions are
slower, some minor ponding/flooding issues are possible in urban
and vulnerable areas.

Rain chances quickly diminish after sunset, but with ample
ground moisture from rainfall today, there is a threat for
impactful fog for the coastal plain. Lows tonight in the low 70s
again inland, mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Fri...Frontal boundary will linger around the area
in the morning before lifting northward. Upper level support
will not be as strong tomorrow, but with temperatures still well
into the 80s and dew points remaining in the 70s there will
likely be enough buoyancy to support scattered shower and
thunderstorm development. Focus will be primarily along the sea
breeze tomorrow, and the forecast follows a typical summer
convective pattern with highest PoPs in the afternoon and
evening hours. Shear will be weaker than today, and no severe
risk is anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Fri...A period of unsettled weather will
occasionally affect ENC through Monday, then a cooler air mass
with limited rain chances Tue through mid week.

Sunday...Ocnl diurnal/evening showers/storms through this
weekend (20-40% chc), as a wavy front lingers across the region.
Limited severe chances as effective shear will be 10 kt or
less. Temps will be near to slightly above climo, generally
85-90 for highs, and low 70s for lows.

Monday...The front finally pushes through on Monday, and brings
with it the best chance for widespread showers/storms. Have
enough confidence on timing to bump up pops (40-70%), highest
srn zones where a sea breeze interacts with the front before it
pushes through. Decent QPF amounts of 0.5-1" appear likely, with
locally higher amounts in heavier convective cells. Perhaps a
better chance for some strong storms as shear inc to 20-30 kt,
but CAPE vals will be a bit less (<1500 J/KG) with cooler temps
and more widespread cloud cover.

Tuesday through Thursday...A much cooler and drier airmass for
most of ENC will try to work in behind the aforementioned
front, and areas across northern NC will have the best chances
of seeing more pleasant and seasonable conditions with mo sunny
skies and drier weather. However areas farther south may remain
stuck in clouds with perhaps some ocnl rain, though with a
brisk nerly wind expected, any precip will be overrunning with
limited thunder threat. Highs near 80 for most, with lows in the
60s. Have kept fcst pop-free for nrn 2/3 of the FA, while
hanging onto a 20% chc for the srn zones. Highs generally near
80 with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Until 18z Sat/...
As of 245 PM Fri...Typical convective pattern this afternoon
across eastern NC terminals as scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop in a moist and buoyant airmass. Storms
along the sea breeze will pose a threat primarily to OAJ and
EWN, but stronger storms along the front are expected to impact
the coastal plain from the northwest early this evening. Environment
today is marginally supportive for damaging wind gusts and any
stronger storms that impact terminals may bring gusts in excess
of 35kt.

Guidance signal for fog is fairly strong across the coastal
plain tonight, especially for terminals west of EWN, and now
explicitly show IFR across these areas early Sat morning. There
could be some patchy dense spots with vis under a mile at times.
Conditions quickly return to VFR by 15z Saturday.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tue/...
As of 4 AM Fri...More unsettled conditions are expected through
the weekend as a front moves into the region and stalls. This
will bring the potential for bouts of sub-VFR conditions but
outside of those instances expect VFR conditions to prevail.
Monday stands the best chc for more widespread showers/storms,
then Tue through midweek will trend dry.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 245 PM Friday...Benign conditions persist over area waters
this afternoon as a weak cold front sinks southward to roughly
Oregon Inlet westward. Outside of spotty convective activity,
winds are variable and around 5 kt. Seas offshore sit at 2-3
feet and will persist through the period as the front continues
to meander tonight into tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, the
front is expected to lift back northward with a return of
southwesterly winds around 10-15 kt. Seas hold at 2-4 feet into
the first half of the weekend.

LONG TERM /Sat night through Wed/...
As of 4 AM Fri...Good boating conditions are expected through
this weekend with Bermuda high pressure reestablishing offshore.
By Saturday sswrly flow will return with winds around 5-15 kts
with gusts to around 20 kt, and will cont through Sunday. Seas
will be mostly 2-3 ft through the period, though some 4 footers
may occasionally develop across the outer waters. Monday, cold
front expected to return from the north and push through all of
ENC late in the day. Tuesday will see gusty nerly gradient winds
of 15-25 kt with SCA conditions trending more likely for the
coastal waters and Pamlico Sound, perhaps for the remaining
sounds and Neuse river as well. Seas will inc to 5-8 ft for the
coastal waters for Tue through Wed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RJ
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL/MS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1039 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

NCZ046-047-081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-204-311445-
Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-
Northern Craven-Southern Craven-West Carteret-East Carteret-
Inland Onslow-Coastal Onslow-Ocracoke Island-
1039 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044-045-079-080-311445-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Greene-Beaufort-
1039 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with
a couple storms capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts
(40-60mph) and localized flash flooding of urban and low lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ203-205-311445-
Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
1039 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS UNTIL
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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