Beach Hazards Statement 70, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

289 
WHUS42 KMHX 240850
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
450 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

NCZ203-205-242100-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-240924T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0070.000000T0000Z-240925T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
450 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents
  and large breaking waves in the surf zone. For the Coastal Flood
  Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying
  areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks and Hatteras Island.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 5 PM EDT this 
  afternoon. For the Beach Hazards Statement, through this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level 
  is possible in some areas near shorelines and tidal waterways 
  resulting in an elevated threat of property damage, mainly 
  around the times of high tide. Some roads and low lying 
  property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes 
  adjacent to the waterfront will experience shallow flooding. 
  Ocean overwash may continue to impact portions of NC-12, 
  mainly around times of high tide. Rip currents can sweep even 
  the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous 
  shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the 
  bottom causing neck and back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 7 AM today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&

$$

NCZ195-196-199-242100-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-240924T2100Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
450 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level in low- 
  lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Areas in North Topsail Beach, along the lower New 
  River, White Oak River, Bogue and Core Sounds, and adjacent 
  tidal creeks.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is 
  possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some 
  roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks, 
  lawns, and homes adjacent to the waterfront will experience 
  shallow flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Beaufort Marine Lab NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 ft, Moderate 5.5 ft, Major 6.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor -0.8 ft, Moderate -0.3 ft, Major 0.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 24/02 PM     5.3       -0.5        1.3        1      Minor    
 25/02 AM     4.3       -1.5        1.2        1       None    
 25/03 PM     4.9       -0.9        1.1        1       None    
 26/03 AM     4.2       -1.6        1.2        1       None    
 26/04 PM     4.8       -1.0        1.1        1       None

&&

$$

NCZ204-242100-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-240924T2100Z/
Ocracoke Island-
450 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level in low- 
  lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Areas along the beaches, Pamlico Sound, and adjacent 
  tidal creeks.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level 
  is possible in some areas near shorelines and tidal waterways 
  resulting in an elevated threat of property damage, mainly 
  around the times of high tide. Some roads and low lying 
  property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes 
  adjacent to the waterfront will experience shallow flooding. 
  Ocean overwash may continue to impact portions of NC-12, 
  mainly around times of high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$

NCZ080-094-194-242100-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-240924T2100Z/
Beaufort-Pamlico-Southern Craven-
450 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Up to one to two feet of inundation above ground level in
  low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Areas along the Pamlico Sound, Trent, Bay and lower 
  Neuse Rivers, and adjacent tidal creeks, and areas along the 
  Pamlico and Pungo Rivers and adjacent tidal creeks.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...NWS Employee reported multiple roads 
  closed in Belhaven on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$

Martin

589 
WHUS42 KMHX 241937
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

NCZ203-205-250900-
/O.EXT.KMHX.CF.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-240925T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0070.000000T0000Z-240925T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents
  and large breaking waves in the surf zone. For the Coastal Flood
  Advisory, up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level in low-
  lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks and Hatteras Island.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 5 PM EDT 
  Wednesday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT 
  this evening.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is
  possible in some areas near shorelines and tidal waterways
  resulting in a low threat of property damage, mainly around the
  times of high tide. Some roads and low lying property including
  parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes adjacent to the 
  waterfront will experience shallow flooding. Ocean overwash may 
  continue to impact portions of NC-12, mainly around times of 
  high tide. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a 
  swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and 
  back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occured at 7 AM today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&

$$

NCZ195-196-199-250900-
/O.EXT.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-240925T2100Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level in low- 
  lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Areas in North Topsail Beach, along the lower New 
  River, White Oak River, Bogue and Core Sounds, and adjacent 
  tidal creeks.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is
  possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways
  resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some roads and low
  lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes
  adjacent to the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Beaufort Marine Lab NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 ft, Moderate 5.5 ft, Major 6.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor -0.8 ft, Moderate -0.3 ft, Major 0.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 24/02 PM     5.2       -0.6        1.2        1      Minor    
 25/02 AM     4.4       -1.4        1.3        1       None    
 25/03 PM     4.9       -0.9        1.1        1       None    
 26/03 AM     4.1       -1.7        1.1        1       None    
 26/04 PM     4.8       -1.0        1.1        1       None    
 27/04 AM     4.2       -1.6        1.2        1       None

&&

$$

NCZ204-250900-
/O.EXT.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-240925T2100Z/
Ocracoke Island-
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level in low- 
  lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Areas along the beaches, Pamlico Sound, and adjacent 
  tidal creeks.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is
  possible in some areas near shorelines and tidal waterways
  resulting in a low threat of property damage, mainly around the
  times of high tide. Some roads and low lying property including
  parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes adjacent to the 
  waterfront will experience shallow flooding. Ocean overwash may 
  continue to impact portions of NC-12, mainly around times of 
  high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

$$

NCZ080-094-194-250900-
/O.EXT.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-240925T2100Z/
Beaufort-Pamlico-Southern Craven-
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Up to one to two feet of inundation above ground level 
  in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Areas along the Pamlico Sound, Trent, Bay and lower 
  Neuse Rivers, and adjacent tidal creeks, and areas along the 
  Pamlico and Pungo Rivers and adjacent tidal creeks.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
  road closures expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$

330 
WHUS42 KMHX 250011
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
811 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

NCZ203-205-251215-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0070.000000T0000Z-240925T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0071.240925T0011Z-240926T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-240925T2100Z/
Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
811 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents.
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1 foot of inundation 
  above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks and Hatteras Island.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Wednesday 
  evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 5 PM EDT 
  Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is
  possible in some areas near shorelines and tidal waterways
  resulting in a low threat of property damage, mainly around the
  times of high tide. Some roads and low lying property including
  parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes adjacent to the waterfront
  will experience shallow flooding. Ocean overwash may continue to
  impact portions of NC-12, mainly around times of high tide. Rip
  currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into 
  deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occured at 8 AM Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

NCZ195-196-199-251215-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-240925T2100Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
811 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level in low- 
  lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Areas in North Topsail Beach, along the lower New 
  River, White Oak River, Bogue and Core Sounds, and adjacent 
  tidal creeks.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is
  possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways
  resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some roads and low
  lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes
  adjacent to the waterfront will experience shallow flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Beaufort Marine Lab NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 ft, Moderate 5.5 ft, Major 6.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor -0.8 ft, Moderate -0.3 ft, Major 0.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 24/02 PM     5.2       -0.6        1.2        1      Minor    
 25/02 AM     4.4       -1.4        1.3        1       None    
 25/03 PM     4.9       -0.9        1.1        1       None    
 26/03 AM     4.1       -1.7        1.1        1       None    
 26/04 PM     4.8       -1.0        1.1        1       None    
 27/04 AM     4.2       -1.6        1.2        1       None

&&

$$

NCZ204-251215-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-240925T2100Z/
Ocracoke Island-
811 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level in low- 
  lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Areas along the beaches, Pamlico Sound, and adjacent 
  tidal creeks.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is
  possible in some areas near shorelines and tidal waterways
  resulting in a low threat of property damage, mainly around the
  times of high tide. Some roads and low lying property including
  parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes adjacent to the 
  waterfront will experience shallow flooding. Ocean overwash may 
  continue to impact portions of NC-12, mainly around times of 
  high tide.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$

NCZ080-094-194-251215-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-240925T2100Z/
Beaufort-Pamlico-Southern Craven-
811 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Up to 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level in 
  low- lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Areas along the Pamlico Sound, Trent, Bay and lower
  Neuse Rivers, areas along the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers and 
  adjacent tidal creeks.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
728 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored to the north through midweek as a
warm front approaches eastern North Carolina from the west and
stalls. More unsettled weather is possible by week's end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM Mon...Very pleasant day ongoing across eastern
North Carolina as a narrow wedge of high pressure extends
between a low well off the coast of the Atlantic and a warm
front marking the edge of a weak CAD wedge. A pool of low-level
dry air has kept skies mainly clear today and allowed
temperatures to climb into the low 80s, but cloud cover will
gradually increase as the warm front and its associated moisture
shift eastward. A few spotty showers may pop ahead of the front
early Tue morning, but with the deeper moisture to the west and
lack of appreciable upper support activity will be weak.

Clear skies and light winds hold on longest across the Outer
Banks where we could see some radiational cooling with lows into
the low 60s, but farther inland with increasing low clouds
temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Mon...Low levels continue to gradually moisten
tomorrow as 850 mb flow turns southwesterly and surface winds
veer further to the east and south as the warm front pushes
farther east. How far the boundary makes it towards the coast
remains uncertain, but CAMs do point to the front being a focal
point for isolated shower and thunderstorm development as CAPEs
climb to 500+ J/kg, especially west of Highway 17. Persistent
ridging aloft will keep coverage limited, but with 30-35 kt of
0-6km shear a stronger storm is not out of the question.

Despite increasing low-level thicknesses, plenty of cloud cover
will keep temperatures close to today's observed highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

 - Above normal temperatures mid-week

 - Watching the tropics late-week

Synoptic Summary: Upper level ridging is forecast to remain in place
across the Southeast U.S. through mid-week, then shift offshore as
an upper level low drops south into the Mid-south. The evolution of
those two upper level features will play a significant role in the
potential tropical system that is forecast to move into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later this week. Over the weekend, ridging may
attempt to move back over the coastal Southeast U.S.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Low-level thicknesses are forecast to increase
beneath ridging aloft, supporting above normal temperatures,
especially by Wednesday. A few locations may flirt with record warm
lows during this time. For reference, normal highs for late
September are in the low 80s. Ridging plus drying aloft should
lead to a lower risk of convection on Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday: The focus during this period will be the track of
the potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The recent
suite of 12z/00z guidance has become much more aligned with an
inland track through the Southeast U.S. In general, this puts ENC on
the moist, easterly side of the system, but also removed from the
higher-end wind impacts. This all changes, of course, if the track
shifts east. Of note, with ridging situated just offshore, there may
be a sharp gradient in rainfall on the edge of the system. For now,
the key message with this system is to be aware of the potential,
and to stay tuned to forecast updates through the week.

Sunday-Monday: In the wake of the late-week system, a cold front may
try to slide SW off the Atlantic, and across ENC over the weekend.
While this would tend to bring cooler weather with it, it may also
bring another potential for showers and thunderstorms.

Monday-Tuesday:
High astronomical tides will be impacting OBX beaches Monday-
Tuesday. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more
information.

High pressure centered over Maine and the Canadian Maritimes
has a ridge extending south over much of the east coast at the
surface, keeping us dry Monday and Tuesday. Further aloft a high
is centered to our south paired with lows to our west and east
put us in a weak omega block setup allowing the high to linger.
Seasonable temps with highs in the low 80s inland, upper 70s to
near 80 for beaches.

Wednesday-Saturday:
Uncertainty increases a lot towards the middle and end of next
week, as multiple synoptic features will be at play and slight
deviations result in large changes with the forecast. While
ridging continues to spread over ENC from the north Wednesday, a
low pressure system forecasted to be over the Great Lakes will
have a cold front trailing from it extending down to the Gulf
coast. This cold front could stall to our west due to the
ridging over us, or the ridge weakens and gives way to the low,
or the front sweeps north of us around the high. In addition to
the parent low over the Great Lakes and ridge overhead, we will
be keeping an eye on a tropical system that could initiate in
the Gulf Coast within 7 days. It is too soon to determine what
impacts, if any, we receive in ENC should this cyclone form. Due
to all this uncertainty, I opted to keep PoPs at Chc/Schc for
now through the remainder of the long term as a higher moisture
advection regime is more supportive of rain at the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 1900 Monday...VFR conditions across all eastern NC
terminals this evening as weak high pressure ridges in from the
north. Low- level dry air intrusion from the northeast is
keeping conditions SKC locally thus far. Expect clouds to
gradually increase through the night as the front shifts
eastward, and there is a moderate risk (50-60%) chance of MVFR
CIGs for the coastal plain after 06z Tue, lingering through
Tues AM as pre- frontal moisture continues to increase. VFR CIGs
return from E to W through the afternoon. A few iso showers and
an odd storm or two have a low chance (20-30%) of impacting
PGV/ISO/OAJ by the end of the TAF period. Increase in clouds
precludes a fog threat overnight.

LONG TERM /Tue through Fri/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

 - TSRA possible Tuesday (20-30% chance)

 - Watching the tropics late-week

Isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA will be possible on Tuesday,
followed by a decreased risk on Wednesday. The chance of SHRA and
TSRA may then increase late week on the outer edges of a potential
tropical system moving inland through the Southeast U.S. Stay tuned
for updates on what impact this system may have to aviation late in
the week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
As of 345 PM Mon...Rough conditions persist over the waters
north of Cape Hatteras this afternoon as persistent
northeasterly swell continues to radiate off lingering low
pressure several hundred miles east of the Carolinas. Seas here
are 5-7 feet, while south of Hatteras seas are closer to 2-4
feet. Northeasterly winds have eased slightly, now at around 10
kt.

Little change is expected in the short term, although winds will
veer more east to southeasterly tomorrow as a weak warm front
approaches from the west. The low offshore will begin to depart
farther offshore on Tuesday, allowing swell to subside modestly but
still remaining at 6+ for waters beyond 10 nm.

Existing SCA in the near term remain in good shape, and no changes
were made to the headlines this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tue through Fri/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

 - Elevated seas on Tuesday

 - Renewed risk of elevated winds and seas late-week

 - Watching the tropics late-week

High pressure offshore, plus a weak gradient, is forecast to keep
winds light (5-10kt) through mid-week. Despite the light winds,
northeasterly long-period swell will continue to impact the central
and northern coastal waters with 5-7 ft seas through at least
Tuesday night. After a brief reprieve, another period of elevated
winds and seas appears increasingly likely as a potential tropical
system moves inland through the Southeast U.S. Stay tuned for
updates on this system and what impact it will have on the ENC
waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1915 Monday...The coastal flood threat continues for all
of coastal North Carolina for another day as tide levels remain
elevated. Have added areas adjacent to The Neuse, Bay, Pamlico,
and Pungo Rivers after receiving reports of multiple roads
closed in Belhaven despite gauges there not showing flood levels
at obs locations. Water levels at high tide tomorrow will be
slightly lower Tuesday than today, but could still result in up
to a foot of inundation above ground level. Along and north of
Ocracoke, persistent northeasterly swell from a distant low
offshore will continue to bring minor overwash concerns with
maximum inundation around 1-2 feet. No changes were made to
existing Coastal Flood headlines this afternoon.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ080-094-
     194>196-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RM/RCF
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...RM/MS/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
601 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

NCZ195-199-242215-
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
601 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

High astronomical tides will continue to lead to elevated water
levels through tomorrow afternoon, especially around the times of
high tide. This will lead to minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding impacts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

High astronomical tides will continue to lead to elevated water
levels through tomorrow afternoon, especially around the times of
high tide. This will lead to minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding impacts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044>047-079-081-090>092-193-198-242215-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Mainland Hyde-
Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Northern Craven-Inland Onslow-
601 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ203-205-242215-
Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
601 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

High astronomical tides will continue to lead to elevated water
levels through tomorrow afternoon, especially around the times of
high tide. This will lead to minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding impacts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

High astronomical tides will continue to lead to elevated water
levels through tomorrow afternoon, especially around the times of
high tide. This will lead to minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding impacts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ196-204-242215-
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-
601 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

High astronomical tides will continue to lead to elevated water
levels through tomorrow afternoon, especially around the times of
high tide. This will lead to minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding impacts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

High astronomical tides will continue to lead to elevated water
levels through tomorrow afternoon, especially around the times of
high tide. This will lead to minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding impacts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ080-094-194-242215-
Beaufort-Pamlico-Southern Craven-
601 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

High astronomical tides will continue to lead to elevated water
levels through tomorrow afternoon, especially around the times of
high tide. This will lead to minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding impacts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

High astronomical tides will continue to lead to elevated water
levels through tomorrow afternoon, especially around the times of
high tide. This will lead to minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding impacts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.