Beach Hazards Statement 61, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

755 
WHUS42 KMHX 120812
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
412 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

NCZ196-203-204-122015-
/O.EXA.KMHX.BH.S.0061.240912T1200Z-240913T0000Z/
East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-
412 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Ocracoke Island and Core Banks beaches, and northern 
  Outer Banks beaches.

* WHEN...From 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 8:00 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

NCZ205-122015-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0061.240912T1200Z-240913T0000Z/
Hatteras Island-
412 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Hatteras Island beaches.

* WHEN...From 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 8:00 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

088 
WHUS42 KMHX 122347
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
747 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

NCZ196-203>205-131215-
/O.EXT.KMHX.BH.S.0061.000000T0000Z-240914T0000Z/
East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
747 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...The beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 9:30 AM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

134 
WHUS42 KMHX 130823
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
423 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

NCZ196-203>205-132100-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0061.000000T0000Z-240914T0000Z/
East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
423 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...The beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout.

* WHEN...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip 
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, 
  which will occur around 9:30 AM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

833 
WHUS42 KMHX 132341
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
741 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

NCZ196-203>205-141200-
/O.EXT.KMHX.BH.S.0061.000000T0000Z-240915T0000Z/
East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
741 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...The beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout.

* WHEN...Through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 10:30 AM Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

007 
WHUS42 KMHX 140834
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
434 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

NCZ203-205-142100-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0061.000000T0000Z-240915T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
434 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...From Duck to Hatteras Inlet.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 10:30 AM Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

NCZ196-204-142100-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0061.000000T0000Z-240915T0000Z/
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-
434 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and strong longshore currents in 
  the surf zone.

* WHERE...Ocracoke Island and Core Banks beaches.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water. Strong longshore currents will 
  create dangerous swimming conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 10:30 AM Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

640 
WHUS42 KMHX 142052
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
452 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

NCZ196-150900-
/O.NEW.KMHX.SU.Y.0010.240915T0900Z-240917T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.240915T1800Z-240917T0100Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0061.000000T0000Z-240915T0000Z/
East Carteret-
452 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents
  and strong longshore currents in the surf zone. For the High
  Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 to 12 feet expected in
  the surf zone. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of 
  inundation above ground level expected in low-lying areas near 
  shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...East Carteret County.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the High Surf Advisory, from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM 
  EDT Tuesday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 2 PM Sunday 
  to 9 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
  road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and surfing
  conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep 
  even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Strong
  longshore currents will create dangerous swimming conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around noon Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Beaufort Marine Lab NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 ft, Moderate 5.5 ft, Major 6.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor -0.8 ft, Moderate -0.3 ft, Major 0.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 14/06 PM     4.9       -0.9        1.0        1       None    
 15/06 AM     4.5       -1.3        1.2        1       None    
 15/06 PM     5.6       -0.2        1.5        1     Moderate  
 16/07 AM     5.4       -0.4        1.8        1      Minor    
 16/07 PM     5.5       -0.3        1.3        1     Moderate  
 17/07 AM     4.7       -1.1        0.8        1       None

&&

$$

NCZ203-150900-
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.240915T1800Z-240917T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.SU.Y.0010.240915T1800Z-240917T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0061.000000T0000Z-240915T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-
452 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents.
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation above
  ground level expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and 
  tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking 
  waves of 7 to 10 feet expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 2 PM Sunday to 9 
  PM EDT Monday. For the High Surf Advisory, from 2 PM Sunday to 
  8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
  road closures expected. Along NC 12, areas of ocean overwash are
  possible around times of high tide, and this may impact travel
  conditions. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best 
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip 
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, 
  which will occur around noon Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Duck NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 6.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 2.8 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 14/05 PM     4.9        1.2        0.8        6       None    
 15/05 AM     4.2        0.5        0.9       6-7      None    
 15/06 PM     5.2        1.5        1.0       7-8      None    
 16/07 AM     4.9        1.2        1.2       7-8      None    
 16/07 PM     5.2        1.5        0.8        7       None    
 17/07 AM     4.6        0.9        0.5       6-7      None

&&

$$

NCZ204-150900-
/O.NEW.KMHX.SU.Y.0010.240915T0900Z-240917T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.240915T1800Z-240917T0100Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0061.000000T0000Z-240915T0000Z/
Ocracoke Island-
452 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents
  and strong longshore currents in the surf zone. For the High
  Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 to 10 feet expected in
  the surf zone. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of 
  inundation above ground level expected in low-lying areas near 
  shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Ocracoke Island.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the High Surf Advisory, from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM 
  EDT Tuesday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 2 PM Sunday 
  to 9 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
  road closures expected. Along NC 12, areas of ocean overwash are
  possible around times of high tide, and this may impact travel
  conditions. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best 
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Strong longshore 
  currents will create dangerous swimming conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip 
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, 
  which will occur around noon Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

NCZ205-150900-
/O.NEW.KMHX.SU.Y.0010.240915T0900Z-240917T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.240915T1800Z-240917T0100Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0061.000000T0000Z-240915T0000Z/
Hatteras Island-
452 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents.
  For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 to 11 
  feet expected in the surf zone. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 
  1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level expected in low- 
  lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Hatteras Island.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the High Surf Advisory, from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM 
  EDT Tuesday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 2 PM Sunday 
  to 9 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
  road closures expected. Along NC 12, areas of ocean overwash are
  possible around times of high tide, and this may impact travel
  conditions. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best 
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip 
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, 
  which will occur around noon Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

NCZ195-199-150900-
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.240915T1800Z-240917T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.SU.Y.0010.240915T1800Z-240917T1200Z/
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
452 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of 
  inundation above ground level expected in low-lying areas near 
  shorelines and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, 
  large breaking waves of 6 to 10 feet expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...West Carteret and Coastal Onslow Counties.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 2 PM Sunday to 9 
  PM EDT Monday. For the High Surf Advisory, from 2 PM Sunday to 
  8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
  road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and surfing 
  conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep 
  even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip 
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, 
  which will occur around noon Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Beaufort Marine Lab NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.0 ft, Moderate 5.5 ft, Major 6.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor -0.8 ft, Moderate -0.3 ft, Major 0.7 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 14/06 PM     4.9       -0.9        1.0        1       None    
 15/06 AM     4.5       -1.3        1.2        1       None    
 15/06 PM     5.6       -0.2        1.5        1     Moderate  
 16/07 AM     5.4       -0.4        1.8        1      Minor    
 16/07 PM     5.5       -0.3        1.3        1     Moderate  
 17/07 AM     4.7       -1.1        0.8        1       None

&&

$$

NCZ080-094-194-150900-
/O.NEW.KMHX.CF.Y.0022.240915T1800Z-240917T0100Z/
Beaufort-Pamlico-Southern Craven-
452 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level expected in
  low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Areas along the Pamlico Sound, Trent, Bay and lower 
  Neuse Rivers, and adjacent tidal creeks, and areas along the 
  Pamlico and Pungo Rivers and adjacent tidal creeks.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Sunday to 9 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
  road closures expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
706 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place across the the region through
the end of the work week. Over the weekend, high pressure will
shift away from the area, allowing a frontal boundary and a
developing area of low pressure, to approach the Southeast U.S.
coastline early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

 - Patchy fog possible tonight (20-40% chance)

Downstream of Hurricane Francine, surface and upper level
ridging will remain in place over the Carolinas through tonight.
Meanwhile, coastal troughing may attempt to tighten up some off
the Southeast U.S. coastline, especially as low pressure drifts
west across the far SW Atlantic. Along the coast, this should
prevent winds from going calm. Even inland, there may be just
enough of a gradient to prevent winds from going calm. Away
from the coast, the potential for light winds and low T/Td
spreads may support another round of patchy fog. Confidence is
low, though, because of uncertainty regarding calm vs light
winds, and widespread high clouds. With this forecast update, I
added patchy fog for a portion of the coastal plain. We will
continue to evaluate this potential in later forecast updates,
in case the risk of fog were to increase. Temperatures will be
cool again tonight, especially inland, but high clouds should
keep temps from getting as low as they otherwise could.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

 - Quiet weather expected for most of ENC on Thursday

Surface high pressure will begin to shift away from the
Northeast U.S. on Thursday, with a decreasing influence across
ENC. Offshore, a weak area of low pressure, or general coastal
troughing, is forecast to reside off the Southeast U.S. coast.
The tightening gradient within the trough should support a
subtle uptick in winds compared to today, especially along the
coast.

Additionally, a moistening easterly flow appears supportive of
a gradual increase in moisture quality across the area, with
PWATs rising back into the 1.00-1.50" range. This isn't
anomalous for this time of year, but is noteworthy given the
very dry airmass of late. Within this moistening airmass,
ensemble guidance show some weak support for coastal showers,
especially in the vicinity of the Crystal Coast. I've kept the
chance of showers below 15% for now, but the probability may
need to be increased in later forecasts, especially if the
moisture returns faster than forecast, or if the coastal trough
ends up more prominent, lift-wise. Low-level thicknesses are
forecast to increase on Thursday, but with widespread high
clouds, and increasing low clouds, temperatures should end up
close to, if not even lower, than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...High pressure will continue to wedge
down into the Carolinas into the end of the week keeping things
mostly dry but also bringing below avg temps and comfortable
dewpoints to the area. Unsettled weather then returns this
weekend as Hurricane Francine lifts north into the Deep South
and a frontal boundary lifts north towards the area with
unsettled conditions persisting into early next week.

Thursday night through Saturday...No significant changes in the
forecast as upper ridging will continue to build across the
Eastern CONUS with a rex block developing towards the end of
the workweek as an upper low associated with Hurricane Francine
in the western Gulf of Mexico lifts into the Deep South and
stalls somewhere over the Southeast through the weekend.
Meanwhile, a surface ridge of high pressure across the Mid-
Atlantic will gradually weaken, but remain wedged across the
Carolinas through Saturday. This will allow a stalled frontal
boundary across the northern Gulf of Mexico and central FL to
lift northward towards the area but remain just to the south.
Depending on how far north the boundary gets this weekend will
dictate the coverage of precip across ENC. Followed closely to
NBM which brings slight chance to chance PoPs across the CWA.
With this high pressure ridge wedged across the Carolinas, east
to northeast winds will prevail and result in seasonably cool
temps with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Sunday into midweek...There is a lot of uncertainty with how
the pattern devolves over the latter half of the weekend and
into next week as Francine dissipates over the Tennessee River
Valley. Guidance continues to hint at a low developing off the
Southeast coast Mon into Tue with most global guidance
suggesting this low then tracking inland by midweek. Will note,
given that blocking patterns can be notoriously difficult to
predict, expect a lot of variability in model solutions in the
coming days and as a result capped PoP's at SChc to Chc until
more certainty in the eventual outcome of this lows exact track
and strength comes into focus. Either way this likely sets up an
unsettled pattern for ENC from Sun on into midweek next week.
Expect avg to slightly below avg temps from Sun on into midweek
given expected cloud cover, increased chance for showers and
storms and continued E'rly onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Thursday/...
As of 7 PM Wednesday...Our low level moisture is increasing, so
greater cloud cover will move north through the rest of the
evening. Hi-res guidance is indicating a chance (40-60%) for
sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities late tonight through early
Thursday morning, especially for the inner coastal plain
terminals (ISO and PGV). However, the combination of broken
high clouds keeping us from radiating very well and ENE winds
around 5 kt keeping us mixed may be enough to prevent fog
development. The most likely scenario appears to be low stratus
with some patchy fog development in areas where sky cover is
less and the winds become lighter. Any fog or low stratus that
develops will dissipate tomorrow morning with conditions
remaining VFR through the rest of the period.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions forecast through
Thursday night as high pressure continues to ridge across the
area into this weekend. A frontal boundary will lift toward the
area late in the week with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing this weekend which may bring periods of sub-VFR
conditions. Otherwise E-NE winds at 5-10 kts with gusts up near
15 kts will be possible through the entire period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/..
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

 - Building winds and seas through Thursday

High pressure over the Northeast U.S. will shift east into the
northern Atlantic through Thursday. Meanwhile, a weak area of
low pressure is forecast to continue moving west through the SW
Atlantic. In between these two features, a tightening pressure
gradient is expected to support easterly winds building to
10-20kt through Thursday, with higher gusts. The combination of
the building winds and the persistent easterly flow should allow
seas to build to 4-6 ft from south to north across the coastal
waters on Thursday. Prior to that, seas will generally be in the
2-4 ft range. Through Thursday, we'll plan to keep the ongoing
marine hazards as-is, mainly focused on the risk of 6 ft seas
across the coastal waters from Oregon Inlet south through Surf
City.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Guidance continues to show a ridge of
high pressure wedged across portions of the Carolinas through
Sat while a stalled boundary currently well south of the area in
the northern Gulf of Mexico lifts N'wards. Guidance has trended
towards a tighter pressure gradient across our waters resulting
in slightly stronger winds towards the end of this week and
into this weekend. Given this have increased NE-E'rly winds
across our waters to 15-20 kts by Thurs evening, with winds
changing little though this weekend. In addition to this, seas
will gradually increase across our coastal waters late this
weekend with the approach of a developing low pressure system
off the Southeastern Coast resulting in seas building to 5-8 ft
across our coastal zones by Sun. As a result have recently
hoisted SCA's for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with
the SCA's persisting into the end of the period. Will likely
need SCA's for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet later
this week as well given current trends.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...OJC/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
225 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-204-121830-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-West Carteret-Inland Onslow-Ocracoke Island-
225 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the Southeast
coast this weekend. This system could become tropical early next
week, and possibly move towards the Carolinas. There is still a high
amount of uncertainty, so we recommend residents and visitors
monitor updated forecasts over the next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ196-199-203-205-121830-
East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
225 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the Southeast
coast this weekend. This system could become tropical early next
week, and possibly move towards the Carolinas. There is still a high
amount of uncertainty, so we recommend residents and visitors
monitor updated forecasts over the next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.