Alert archive / North Carolina / Beach Hazards Statements in 2024

Beach Hazards Statement 54, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

August 17, 20244 counties in North Carolina

NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued this beach hazards statement at Aug 17, 2024, 8:06 PM EDT for 4 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 17, 2024, 8:06 PM EDT (00:06 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2024, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Counties Carteret County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Onslow County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2024-08-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2024-08-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 59 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-150 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1147 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
68 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

191 
WHUS42 KMHX 180006
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
806 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

NCZ196-204-205-181215-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0053.000000T0000Z-240818T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0054.240818T0006Z-240819T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-240819T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-240819T1200Z/
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
806 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
  above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
  waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5
  to 8 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement,
  dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf
  zone.

* WHERE...East Carteret County, and Ocracoke Island and Hatteras 
  Island.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Sunday 
  evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 AM EDT 
  Monday. For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level is
  possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways
  resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some roads and low
  lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes
  adjacent to the waterfront may experience shallow flooding.
  Vulnerable dune structures along Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands
  will be most susceptible to impacts from ocean overwash.
  Portions of NC-12 may be impacted, especially around times of
  high tide. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion expected. Rip currents can sweep even 
  the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous 
  shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the 
  bottom causing neck and back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 1 PM Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&

$$

NCZ203-181215-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0053.000000T0000Z-240818T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0054.240818T0006Z-240819T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0009.240818T0900Z-240819T1200Z/
Northern Outer Banks-
806 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents
  and large breaking waves in the surf zone. For the High Surf
  Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet expected in the 
  surf zone.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks beaches.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Sunday 
  evening. For the High Surf Advisory, from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM 
  EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best 
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore 
  break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom 
  causing neck and back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 1 PM Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&

$$

NCZ195-199-181215-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0053.000000T0000Z-240818T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0054.240818T0006Z-240819T0000Z/
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
806 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Crystal Coast beaches.

* WHEN...Through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 1 PM Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
215 
WHUS42 KMHX 180701
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
301 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

NCZ203-182115-
/O.CAN.KMHX.SU.Y.0009.240818T0900Z-240819T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0054.000000T0000Z-240819T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-
301 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the 
  surf zone.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks beaches.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw 
  a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck 
  and back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 1 pm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&

$$

NCZ196-204-205-182115-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-240819T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-240819T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0054.000000T0000Z-240819T0000Z/
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
301 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of 
  inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines
  and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking
  waves of 5 to 8 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards 
  Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in 
  the surf zone.

* WHERE...East Carteret County, and Ocracoke Island and Hatteras 
  Island.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Monday. 
  For the Beach Hazards Statement, through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and 
  surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents 
  can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper 
  water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer 
  head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 1 pm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&


$$

NCZ195-199-182115-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0054.000000T0000Z-240819T0000Z/
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
301 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Crystal Coast beaches.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 1 pm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$
116 
WHUS42 KMHX 182007
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
407 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

NCZ196-204-205-190815-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-240819T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-240819T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0054.000000T0000Z-240819T0000Z/
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
407 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
  above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
  waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5
  to 8 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement,
  dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the surf
  zone.

* WHERE...East Carteret County, and Ocracoke Island and Hatteras 
  Island.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Sunday evening.
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Monday. For the
  High Surf Advisory, until 8 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level is
  possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways
  resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some roads and low
  lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes
  adjacent to the waterfront may experience shallow flooding.
  Vulnerable dune structures along Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands
  will be most susceptible to impacts from ocean overwash.
  Portions of NC-12 may be impacted, especially around times of
  high tide. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and
  localized beach erosion expected. Rip currents can sweep even
  the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous
  shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the
  bottom causing neck and back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which occurred around 12:30 PM today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&

$$

NCZ195-199-190000-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0054.000000T0000Z-240819T0000Z/
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
407 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Crystal Coast beaches.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which occurred around 12:30 PM today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

NCZ203-190000-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0054.000000T0000Z-240819T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-
407 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the 
  surf zone.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks beaches.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw 
  a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck 
  and back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which occurred around 12:30 PM today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&

$$
771 
WHUS42 KMHX 190003
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
803 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

NCZ196-204-205-191215-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0054.000000T0000Z-240819T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0055.240819T0003Z-240820T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMHX.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-240819T1400Z/
/O.EXT.KMHX.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-240819T1400Z/
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
803 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
  above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
  waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5
  to 8 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement,
  dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...East Carteret County, and Ocracoke Island and Hatteras 
  Island.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Monday 
  evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 10 AM EDT 
  Monday. For the High Surf Advisory, until 10 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level is
  possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways
  resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some roads and low
  lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes
  adjacent to the waterfront may experience shallow flooding.
  Vulnerable dune structures along Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands
  will be most susceptible to impacts from ocean overwash.
  Portions of NC-12 may be impacted, especially around times of
  high tide. The next high tide is around 8 AM Monday morning.
  Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach 
  erosion expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers 
  away from shore into deeper water. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 1:30 PM Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

NCZ195-199-203-191215-
/O.EXP.KMHX.BH.S.0054.000000T0000Z-240819T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0055.240819T0003Z-240820T0000Z/
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
803 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Crystal Coast beaches, and northern Outer Banks 
  beaches.

* WHEN...Through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 1:30 PM Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at Aug 17, 7:47 PM EDT, 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 17, 7:47 PM EDT, 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
747 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure has shifted offshore and a cold front is
approaching from the west. The cold front will move across the
Carolinas Sunday into Monday bringing our next threat for
unsettled, and potentially severe, weather to the area. Swell
from distant Hurricane Ernesto will continue impacting the coast
through the weekend, bringing an elevated rip current risk and
minor coastal flood threat. High pressure then builds in from
the north and west next week once again bringing fair weather to
ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM Saturday...No major changes with the forecast.
chances for rain rapidly diminish with a loss of daytime heating
this evening, before a weak mid-level shortwave brings another
chance of rain in the early morning hours (primarily east of hwy
17).

Previous Discussion...As of 4 PM Saturday...High pressure has
moved offshore today and a potent cold front is making its way
across the Ohio River Valley. An isolated shower across the
inner coastal plain and northern tier of the FA cannot be ruled
out this afternoon and evening, but most areas should remain dry
until after midnight. Late tonight, a weak mid-level
disturbance could trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows will reach the lower 70s inland and mid 70s at the beaches.

Coastal hazards from Ernesto continue for ENC's entire coastline.
See the COASTAL FLOODING section for details.

River flooding from Debby is ongoing in some areas but all
rivers have crested as of today. For more details, see the
HYDROLOGY section.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM Saturday...No major changes with the forecast.

Previous Discussion...As of 4 PM Saturday...A chance for severe
weather is on the table tomorrow as a shortwave pushes a cold
front towards ENC. There will be a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day, but chances will increase as
the front enters the CWA from the west later in the
afternoon/evening. Daytime heating sending Ts into the low 90s
and moist southwesterly flow allowing Tds to reach the mid to
upper 70s will create a juicy environment that could generate
strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. The best chance
for severe storms will be west of HWY 17 where the event will
start with a multicellular storm mode. This area has been
highlighted with a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) from SPC. As the
front progresses eastward, storms will likely congeal into a
QLCS and race towards the coast, eventually making it offshore
after midnight. The main threats with this event are damaging
wind gusts and heavy rainfall, but the progressive nature of
this system should mostly preclude any flooding threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sat...A severe risk is in play for Sunday, with
more unsettled weather with showers and storms to start the
week, then dry and cool for mid to late week.

Monday...Upr trough remains west of the region with the front
stalling through Monday. Therefore, chances for precip cont, and
have cont to advertise 40-50% pops during the afternoon hours.
Severe threat appears quite a bit lower, but cannot rule out a
few storms per instability still in place. Highs cont warm in
the mid to upper 80s.

Tuesday through Friday...Cold front expected to push through,
thus precip chances wane and mostly dry and cooler conditions
are expected. Dropped the 20-30% chc of rain that was
advertised, and now a dry forecast Tue and beyond. Temps drop
back down to below climo, and TD's plummet through the 60s and
into the upper 50s. This will yield a fantastic airmass for mid
August, with highs in the low 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to
low 60s. GFS guidance has widespread lows in the 50s Wed and Thu
mornings inland. By Friday, the NNE flow becomes easterly, with
some shallow moisture and clouds returning. Have introduced
small pops (20-30%) in the form of a few showers possibly
migrating wwrd and off the Atlantic by Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 730 PM Saturday...Predominantly VFR conditions are
expected until shortly after midnight. The overnight hours will
present an opportunity for fog and low stratus, but confidence
is somewhat low for a few reasons. First, the winds are expected
to remain around 5 kt out of the south. This would keep us
mixed enough to prevent fog development, but any decoupling
would be problematic. Second, some guidance is hinting at low-
end MVFR to IFR ceilings between 06-12Z, but low-level cloud
cover may not be great enough to generate broken ceilings. Low
stratus seems more probable than fog given the overnight wind
forecast. have SCT IFR and BKN MVFR CIGs in the TAFs for PGV and
ISO where chances are the highest, diminishing to SCT MVFR for
EWN and ISO.

Tomorrow, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible east of HWY 17 in the morning. A few hours of rain
free conditions are possible before convection kicks off
around/after 18Z ahead of an approaching cold front. Added VCTS
to all terminals from 18Z-00Z in the TAFs.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Unsettled weather returns late in the
weekend in the form of showers and storms. Could be some severe
storms very late afternoon Sun into Sun evening, with some
strong wind gusts possible along with brief reductions in vsby
to sub VFR. Gusty sswrly winds on Sunday ahead of the front with
speeds up to 20 kt possible. Another chc for some showers on
Mon, then cold front will move through by Tue bringing dry
weather back to ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Saturday...

 - Ernesto swell will continue to impact the coastal waters
   through Sunday night

Hazardous marine conditions will continue as long period swell
from distant Hurricane Ernesto impacts the waters of NC. SCAs
remain in effect for all of the coastal waters, Pamlico Sound,
Croatan Sound, and Roanoke Sound through the weekend. 10-15 kt
SW winds tonight will become 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
tomorrow.

Current obs are showing 3-6 ft seas with the expectation of them
rebuilding to 6-7 ft tomorrow. Periods will be 12-13 seconds
through tonight and 11-12 seconds tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passes close to
Bermuda this weekend. Wave guidance suggests long period swells
will impact the waters into Monday as Ernesto only slowly moves
northward. The long period swells could make inlet conditions
particularly dangerous at times of opposing winds/currents/tides
and perpendicular swell energy (SE/E/NE direction), especially
for east facing inlets along the NC coast. The large swells
finally subside later Mon.

Sswrly winds inc Sun afternoon and evening ahead of approaching
cold front, with winds of 15-25 kt expected for
Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. May need SCA's hoisted for these
zones with subsequent forecast updates. Swrly winds diminish
some by Mon, then turn nw Tue, and N to NE Wed into Thu, with
speeds of 10-15 kt expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 PM Saturday...All rivers have crested and are falling as
of this afternoon. Flooding along the Neuse, Tar, and Contentnea
is ongoing but conditions will continue to improve over the
coming days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4 PM Saturday...Powerful long period swells from distant
Ernesto are combining with high astronomical tides and leading
to several coastal hazards, which will persist through the
weekend. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf are expected for
the beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout. There is also potential
for beach erosion and ocean overwash (esp. where dune structures
are vulnerable). The greatest window of concern will be around
the times of high into Monday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect
from Duck to Cape Lookout for dangerous breaking waves of 5-8
ft. In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from
Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout for 1-2 feet of inundation.
Vulnerable dune structures along Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands
will be most susceptible to impacts from beach erosion and ocean
overwash.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204-
     205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ196-204-205.
     High Surf Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ203.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday
     night for AMZ135-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ
SHORT TERM...OJC/RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/OJC
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 17, 7:49 PM EDT, 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
749 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-190000-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
749 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms, some severe, are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening. The main threat with the storms would be damaging wind
gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ196-204-205-190000-
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
749 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

Long period swells from Tropical Cyclone Ernesto will continue
impacting eastern North Carolina beaches which will lead to an
increased risk for rip currents, coastal impacts, and large surf
through the weekend.

Thunderstorms, some severe, are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening. The main threat with the storms would be damaging wind
gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ203-190000-
Northern Outer Banks-
749 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   High Surf Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   High Surf Advisory.

Long period swells from Tropical Cyclone Ernesto will continue
impacting eastern North Carolina beaches which will lead to an
increased risk for rip currents, coastal impacts, and large surf
through the weekend.

Thunderstorms, some severe, are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening. The main threat with the storms would be damaging wind
gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-199-190000-
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
749 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Long period swells from Tropical Cyclone Ernesto will continue
impacting eastern North Carolina beaches which will lead to an
increased risk for rip currents, coastal impacts, and large surf
through the weekend.

Thunderstorms, some severe, are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening. The main threat with the storms would be damaging wind
gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 18, 7:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementMHXGreene30 min

Nearby

Beach Hazards Statements in North Carolina, 2024Every beach hazards statement in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.