Beach Hazards Statement 5, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

276 
WHUS42 KMHX 120903
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
503 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

NCZ199-122115-
/O.CAN.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240412T1200Z/
/O.EXP.KMHX.CF.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-240412T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0005.240412T1200Z-240413T0000Z/
Coastal Onslow-
503 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves 
  expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Onslow County beaches.

* WHEN...From 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw 
  a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck 
  and back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 5 AM and 4 PM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&

$$

NCZ195-196-122115-
/O.EXP.KMHX.CF.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-240412T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240412T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0005.240412T1200Z-240413T0000Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-
503 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to
  8 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, 
  dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves expected in the 
  surf zone.

* WHERE...West Carteret and East Carteret Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 2 PM EDT Friday. For 
  the Beach Hazards Statement, from Friday morning through Friday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best 
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore 
  break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom 
  causing neck and back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 5 AM and 4 PM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&

$$

NCZ047-081-121015-
/O.EXP.KMHX.CF.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-240412T0900Z/
Mainland Dare-Mainland Hyde-
503 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Gale force southwesterly winds have eased which has allowed water
levels to lower across the area. With water levels forecast to 
remain below advisory criteria the coastal flood advisory has been
allowed to expire.

$$

NCZ204-122115-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240413T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240413T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0005.240412T1200Z-240413T0000Z/
Ocracoke Island-
503 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of 
  inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near 
  shorelines and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, 
  large breaking waves of 6 to 9 feet expected in the surf zone. 
  For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents, large 
  breaking waves expected, and strong longshore currents in the 
  surf zone.

* WHERE...Ocracoke Island.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Friday. 
  For the Beach Hazards Statement, from Friday morning through 
  Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...The vulnerable portion of NC-12 on the northern end of
  the island, will likely see inundation from ocean overwash which
  could close the road. Latest report from the NCDOT is that the
  road between the Ferry Teminal and Pony Pens has been closed on
  NC 12 and Ferry Service has been suspended until noon on Friday.Dangerous
  swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. 
  Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore 
  into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or 
  surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back 
  injuries. Strong longshore currents will create dangerous 
  swimming conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 5 AM and 4 PM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

NCZ205-122115-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-240412T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240413T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0005.240412T1200Z-240413T0000Z/
Hatteras Island-
503 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
  above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
  waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5
  to 8 feet expected in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards 
  Statement, dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves 
  expected, and strong longshore currents in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Hatteras Island.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM EDT Friday. 
  For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Friday. For the 
  Beach Hazards Statement, from Friday morning through Friday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Flooding threat will persist on oceanside portions of
  Hatteras Island through late today as high surf and strong
  southerly winds will lead to ocean overwash especially in areas
  with vulnerable dune structure. Flooding concerns are expected
  on the soundside today as well, primarily north of Buxton, as
  storng southwesterly winds persist. Rip currents can sweep even
  the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous 
  shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the 
  bottom causing neck and back injuries. Strong longshore currents
  will create dangerous swimming conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 5 AM and 4 PM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

NCZ203-122115-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-240412T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0005.240412T1200Z-240413T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-
503 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one foot of 
  inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near 
  shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards 
  Statement, dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 PM EDT Friday. 
  For the Beach Hazards Statement, from Friday morning through 
  Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is 
  possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways 
  resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some roads and low
  lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes 
  adjacent to the waterfront will experience shallow flooding. Rip
  currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into 
  deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 5 AM and 4 PM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

200 
WHUS42 KMHX 122038
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
438 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

NCZ203-130845-
/O.EXB.KMHX.CF.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240413T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-240413T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-
438 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to one foot of
  inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines
  and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous
  rip currents.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 5 PM EDT 
  Saturday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is 
  possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways 
  resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some roads and low
  lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes 
  adjacent to the waterfront will experience shallow flooding. Rip
  currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into 
  deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 4:00 PM today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

NCZ204-130000-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240413T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240413T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-240413T0000Z/
Ocracoke Island-
438 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
  above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
  waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 
  6 to 9 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, 
  dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves, and strong 
  longshore currents in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Ocracoke Island.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...The vulnerable portion of NC-12, on the northern end
  of the island, is expected to see inundation from ocean
  overwash. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best 
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore 
  break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom 
  causing neck and back injuries. Strong longshore currents will 
  create dangerous swimming conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 4:00 PM today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

NCZ205-130000-
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240413T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-240413T0000Z/
Hatteras Island-
438 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 
  to 9 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, 
  dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves, and strong 
  longshore currents in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Hatteras Island beaches.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best 
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore 
  break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom 
  causing neck and back injuries. Strong longshore currents will 
  create dangerous swimming conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 4:00 PM today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

NCZ195-196-199-130000-
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-240413T0000Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
438 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves in the 
  surf zone.

* WHERE...The beaches from Cape Lookout to Surf City.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw 
  a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck 
  and back injuries.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip
  currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide,
  which will occur around 4:00 PM today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

&&

$$

Martin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1027 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system and associated cold front will
impact Eastern NC today and tonight. High pressure then
builds into the area from the south this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Thu...No major changes to the going forecast. Rain
extending south into SC will continue to move north into the
afternoon hours. Latest HRRR guidance suggests that this rain
will persist through much of the day which will likely limit
instability through at least late afternoon. There is a chance
for some break in the rainfall late this afternoon and early
this evening which may allow for increased instability between
21z and 03z this evening as a weak surface trough associated
with higher Theta-E air moves northward. SPC continues with a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather.

Otherwise, outside of any thunderstorms, it will get windy this
afternoon with some gusts up to 40 mph possible due to the
tightening pressure gradient and 50kt winds as 925mb.

As of 645 AM Thu...An upper level shortwave, and an associated
surface low, will lift NE from the TN Valley towards the eastern
Great Lakes today and tonight. East of the low, an effective
warm front will lift steadily north through the Carolinas. A
pre-frontal trough is then forecast to push east through ENC
during the late- afternoon/evening hours, followed by a cold
frontal passage tonight. This system will bring multiple hazards
to eastern NC today and tonight: widespread showers with
isolated svr wx threat, gusty winds and coastal impacts.

Widespread showers and iso tstms currently over FL/GA/SC will
grad lift NE today, grad overspreading the area later this
morning and this afternoon. Light returns on radar this morning
slowly blossoming, but having a tough time overcoming dry
air...with only sprinkles thus far. Warmer temps aloft will
tend to keep mid-level lapse rates on the low side (<6 C/km),
but strong low- level moisture advection should allow a plume of
weak instability to develop north ahead of the advancing pre-
frontal trough. Within this plume, probabilistic guidance gives
a 25-35% chance of SBCAPE >750 J/kg. Deep layer shear of
50-60kt+ is forecast, which sets up a classic high shear/low
CAPE scenario. It still appears that the most likely scenario is
for widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms to move through
Eastern NC this afternoon and evening as strong lift overlaps
with a deepening layer of moisture. In this scenario, convection
would tend to be more shallow in nature, but given strong flow
aloft, could support occasional gusts of 50+ mph thanks to
enhanced mixing. SPC currently has our entire area in a
"Marginal" risk of severe weather. While less likely, if
instability ends up higher, and if the early rain is less
widespread, there could be an opportunity for surface-based
convection and a higher risk of severe weather (ie. 60+ mph
gusts and a few tornadoes). Also of note, a well- defined MCV is
currently moving through GA/FL early this morning, which could
potentially limit convective chances as it moves off the SE
coast later today.

Outside of the thunderstorm risk, a tightening pressure
gradient east of the advancing pre-frontal trough will support
strengthening southerly winds, with non-thunderstorm gusts of
35-40+ mph. These strong winds will continue into the early
evening hours, then lessen as the gradient relaxes in the wake
of the pre-frontal trough and associated convection. Strong
winds will lead to coastal impacts, see CF section below for
details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Thu...Low pressure will continue to lift into the
eastern Great Lakes tonight with attendant cold front pushing
offshore after midnight. Widespread showers and embedded tstms
ongoing this evening, with the threat pushing off the coast
after midnight. Iso strong to severe storm threat will continue
through the eve. Winds will grad ease late as pressure grad
relaxes. Coastal impacts expected to peak tonight with strong
southerly winds, see section below for details.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thurs... Cold front offshore will continue to quickly
push away from the region on Fri with a second reinforcing cold
front sweeping through ENC Fri afternoon and evening. High
pressure then builds in from the south and west over the weekend
and settles in off the SE Coast early next week bringing fair
weather to ENC from Sat into late next week.

Friday... Upper troughing over the Ohio River Valley at the
start of the period will gradually shift E'wards eventually
pushing offshore late Fri night while at the same time a s/w
will round the base of this upper trough Fri afternoon. At the
surface, cold front that had impacted the area on Thurs will be
offshore to start the day Fri leaving behind some gusty SW'rly
winds Fri morning. As the s/w makes its way across ENC Fri
afternoon a reinforcing cold front will quickly sweep E'wards
across ENC. This will increase the winds further keeping SW'rly
winds at 15-20 mph with gusts in excess of 25-30 mph Fri
afternoon. This front will also bring some widely scattered
showers with it. Kept SChc PoP's in the forecast for much of the
area Fri afternoon, though as noted previously a little
skeptical of how much moisture makes its way over the mountains
and to the area. Will monitor trends and adjust the forecast if
needed. Highs continue to remain rather warm Fri with the
SW'rly flow in place getting into the upper 60s to mid 70s
everywhere while lows Fri night get down into the upper 40s to
low 50s.

Sat through midweek next week... Upper trough eventually pushes away
from the Mid-Atlantic on Sat and Sun with more zonal flow
overspreading the Carolinas this weekend before upper ridging builds
across the Eastern CONUS. A weak s/w trough may track across
the Carolinas Sun night into Mon morning before ridging
establishes itself. At the surface, high pressure builds in from
the south and west on Sat and Sun before setting up in the
Sargasso Sea off the SE Coast early next week. The pressure
gradient will remain tight between the building high pressure
and departing fronts and strong low well off to the north and
east on Sat allowing W'rly downslope winds to remain rather
gusty with wind gusts expected to be in the 20-25 mph range Sat
afternoon. Given the downslope flow dewpoints will likely lower
some and with temps in the 70s across inland areas, RH's will
drop into the 25-30% range across the Coastal Plain. The
combination of stronger winds and low RH's could result in some
elevated fire danger and if confidence in this threat increases
further a fire weather section of the AFD may become necessary.

As a second s/w trough moves across ENC Sun night into Mon, dry
cold front approaches and outside of some elevated SW'rly winds
and additional cloud cover Sun night little in the way of
impacts will be felt from this front. Afterwards high pressure
ridging remains in place promoting dry conditions and a gradual
warming trend through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 645 AM Thu...VFR conditions currently across the
terminals, with widespread sub-VFR conditions expected to
develop after 12z this morning. Strong southerly wind gusts
expected today, peaking this afternoon and evening. Expect cigs
to lower to MVFR across western terminals shortly after daybreak
and spread to the coast through the morning with widely
scattered showers possible. Heavier showers will move in late
morning through the afternoon bringing periods of IFR or lower
conditions. Winds gusts to around 25 kt will develop shortly
after day break with gusts 30-35 kt this afternoon and evening.
Heavier showers and sct tstms will have the potential to bring
gusts around 40-50 kt as well. The strong Sly winds will bring
cross-wind concerns at ISO and EWN runway 4R/22L. Conditions
will grad improve from west to east after 3z, then returning to
VFR towards daybreak Fri morning.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thurs... Expect primarily VFR conditions through the
TAF period as a cold front will be well offshore by Fri morning
while high pressure gradually builds in from the south and west
through the weekend and into early next week. The main concern
will be the gusty winds on Fri and Sat with SW to W'rly winds
potentially gusting in excess of 25 kts Fri afternoon and 20+
kts on Sat afternoon. Much lighter winds are then forecast from
Sun onwards.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1000 AM Thu...Have opted to issue a Small Craft Advisory
for the entire coastal waters for this afternoon ahead of the
Gale Warning for tonight. Latest guidance suggests winds rapidly
increasing this afternoon, along with building seas/waves. South
winds already at 20 kt and they should be 25 kt with gusts to 30
kt by early this afternoon. In addition, seas across the
southern waters already 6-8 feet and should build to 7-10 feet
this afternoon.

As of 645 AM Thu...Latest obs show moderate S winds 10-20 kt
with seas 3-5 ft. Expect conditions to deteriorate quickly
today, with strong winds and dangerous seas developing.
Strengthening low pressure will continue to lift NNE toward the
Great Lakes today, pushing attendant cold front eastward through
the Carolinas. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters,
sounds and rivers early this evening into the first part of
tonight. Winds will increase to 20-25 kt by this afternoon,
peaking at 25-35 kt with gusts 35-40 kt this evening and
tonight. The cold front will move through late tonight and early
Friday morning with gradient grad relaxing and winds
diminishing to 20-25 kt. Seas will build to 5-10 ft this
afternoon, then peak at 8-15 ft tonight. Widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the first
part of tonight. Showers and storms could mix down stronger
winds.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thurs... Cold front will be well offshore to start
the period with a second reinforcing cold front quickly moving
across our waters Fri afternoon and evening bringing a SChc for
some showers/storms. Winds will be SW'rly at 20-25 kts with
gusts in excess of 30 kts across our coastal waters Fri morning
but quickly ease closer to 15-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts at
times Fri afternoon which should briefly end our SCA's across
some of the inland rivers and sounds. As we get into Fri night
and Sat, winds veer to a westerly direction behind the second
front and increase once again with sustained winds around 20-25
kts and gusts up near 30 kts at times. Some minor funneling
could occur across the Pamlico River and Albemarle Sound given
wind direction but either way looks like small craft conditions
would be possible once again. Winds finally ease Sat evening
down to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts ending the SCA's
across our inland waters. 6-9 ft seas north of Hatteras and 7-10
ft seas south of Hatteras will gradually lower Fri night into
Sat as the winds slowly ease with widespread 4-7 ft seas found
across all waters by Sat morning. Seas then fall below SCA
criteria Sat afternoon. Better boating conditions remain in
place through Sun before an incoming surface trough tightens the
gradient Sun night bringing the potential for more SCA
conditions before quieter weather finally returns to the marine
zones early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Friday for NCZ047-081-195-196-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday
     for NCZ195-196.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for NCZ199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ204.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ131-150-152-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     AMZ135>137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/MRD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF/MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
407 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

NCZ029-044>046-079-080-090>092-094-193-194-198-120815-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Greene-Beaufort-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-
Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
407 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong cold front will move through tonight. Widespread showers
with isolated strong thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected, potentially stronger in
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Breezy westerly winds and low RH values may lead to increased fire
danger Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ047-081-120815-
Mainland Dare-Mainland Hyde-
407 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

A strong cold front will move through tonight. Widespread showers
with isolated strong thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected, potentially stronger in
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ205-120815-
Hatteras Island-
407 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

A strong cold front will move through tonight. Widespread showers
with isolated strong thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected, potentially stronger in
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ203-120815-
Northern Outer Banks-
407 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

A strong cold front will move through tonight. Widespread showers
with isolated strong thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected, potentially stronger in
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-120815-
West Carteret-East Carteret-
407 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

A strong cold front will move through tonight. Widespread showers
with isolated strong thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected, potentially stronger in
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ199-120815-
Coastal Onslow-
407 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

A strong cold front will move through tonight. Widespread showers
with isolated strong thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected, potentially stronger in
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ204-120815-
Ocracoke Island-
407 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   Beach Hazards Statement.
   High Surf Advisory.

A strong cold front will move through tonight. Widespread showers
with isolated strong thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph expected, potentially stronger in
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
337 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

NCZ090-198-199-112000-
Coastal Onslow NC-Inland Onslow NC-Duplin NC-
337 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN JONES...ONSLOW AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUPLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers near
Edgecomb, or 8 miles northwest of Surf City, moving northeast at 65
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, North Topsail Beach, New River Station, Half Moon,
Pumpkin Center, Camp Lejeune Center, Piney Green, Swansboro, Hubert,
Folkstone, Silverdale, Kellum, Midway Park, Verona, Catherine Lake,
Dixon, Belgrade, Sneads Ferry, Richlands South, and Deppe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 7757 3472 7768 3472 7770 3492 7738
      3491 7737 3494 7733 3493 7727 3489 7722
      3484 7720 3483 7718 3481 7720 3478 7717
      3475 7711 3473 7711 3470 7707 3471 7709
      3468 7710 3469 7705 3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 226DEG 58KT 3450 7769

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simms

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
457 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

NCZ092-094-194>196-198-112130-
West Carteret NC-Jones NC-Inland Onslow NC-East Carteret NC-
Pamlico NC-Southern Craven NC-
457 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN JONES...SOUTHEASTERN
CRAVEN...SOUTHEASTERN PAMLICO AND CARTERET COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...

At 456 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers near Newport,
moving northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Havelock, Morehead City, Newport, Stella, Swansboro, South River,
Cape Carteret, North River, Sealevel, Merrimon, Atlantic, Harlowe,
Silverdale, Florence, Broad Creek, Janeiro, Great Neck, Wildwood,
Whortonsville, and Kuhns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 7715 3465 7716 3467 7716 3467 7717
      3468 7717 3471 7719 3471 7718 3467 7714
      3471 7711 3473 7714 3476 7713 3476 7716
      3477 7715 3477 7717 3475 7721 3525 7653
      3488 7632 3464 7710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 229DEG 60KT 3482 7694

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simms

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
528 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst New River Station       34.71N 77.44W
04/11/2024  M60 MPH          Onslow             NC   ASOS

            New River Air Station gusted to 52 knots (60
            mph).

&&

DAG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
532 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Havelock                34.91N 76.89W
04/11/2024  M48 MPH          Craven             NC   AWOS

            Cherry Point AWOS reported a 48 mph wind
            gust.

&&

DAG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
540 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Michael J Smith Airport 34.73N 76.66W
04/11/2024  E53 MPH          Carteret           NC   Public

            KMRH reported a wind gust of 46 knots (53
            mph).

&&

DAG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
543 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Cedar Point             34.69N 77.08W
04/11/2024                   Carteret           NC   NWS Employee

            Tree down at the intersection of HWY 24 and
            Sherwood Avenue. Time estimated based on
            radar.

&&

Martin