Winter Storm Warning 20, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
938 AM PST Thu Dec 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Section...

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.AVIATION...12/18Z TAFS...The lower IFR/LIFR conditions have been
improving this morning to mostly VFR with lingering higher terrain
obscurations and local MVFR conditions, mainly along the Curry coast
and into Northern California. Another front approaches the coast
late tonight. Areas of MVFR ceilings and local IFR/LIFR will develop
across inland areas tonight as precipitation moves inland. -
CC/Hermansen

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 915 AM PST Thu Dec 12 2024/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows the upper trough moving
towards the northwest California coast. Steady precipitation is
lifting northeast of the area and we'll catch a brief break in the
action for the rest of the morning west of the Cascades. However
convective showers are already on the horizon and are moving
towards northwest California. Showers late this morning and
afternoon should be mainly concentrated in northern California and
Cascades. Weak upper ridging builds in tonight with a relative
break in the action, then a stronger storms will bring wind, rain
and snow impacts to portions of the area Friday into Saturday.
This will be looked in in more detail. -Petrucelli

MARINE...Updated 900 AM PST Thursday, December 12, 2024...A low
pressure will gradually move inland into northern California today.
There will be steep swell-dominated seas today.

Another strong front is expected to approach late tonight with
strong gales developing Friday morning and continuing through at
least Friday evening. A gale watch has been issued for this event
and will be updated today. This front will pack a punch with a high
probability (>70%) of ensemble member of wind gusts exceeding 50 kt.
Latest model guidance has continue to push this front onshore more
quickly than previous runs, but it will still pack a punch with a
high probability (>70%) of wind gusts exceeding 50 kt. This will
build very steep seas with wind wave heights in the 15-20 ft range
and total seas perhaps greater than 20 ft. Models continue to show
that winds will subside Friday night, but a long period west side
will follow with seas remaining in the 15-19 foot. These seas
persist on Saturday morning, gradually lowering (but remaining
steep) late Saturday into Saturday night.
-CC/Hermansen

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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for
     ORZ021-022.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for CAZ080-082-083.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for
     CAZ081.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
909 AM PST Thu Dec 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Rain             2 SSE Pistol River      42.26N 124.39W
12/12/2024  M1.61 Inch       Curry              OR   Trained Spotter

            24 hour total ending 8 am PST.

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