Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
300 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper trough is moving slowly into SW
Oregon which is the triggering mechanism for mainly slight
(10-20%) chances over the east side this afternoon and tonight.
The exception is along the Warners and in far southeast Lake
county where there is a narrow region of 30-50% chances aligned
closest to the area of convection currently ongoing and developing
from parts of Washoe and Harney Counties. Storms are not expected
to be of great impact.

After tonight we move into Friday with concerns of very warm high
temperatures and another round of slight chance (15-20%)
thunderstorms over the east. The NBM has been fairly consistent
with advertising temperatures 3 to 7 degrees warmer than today
west of the Cascades, well into the 90s for the western valleys
and near 90 over the east. These are departing from normals by +15
to +20 degrees, so a fairly unusual warm spring day. Near-record
or record highs will be monitored at Klamath Falls (91/1996),
Alturas (93/1996) and Mount Shasta City (92/2015). Current records
are shown. The heat risk with this period only reaches 2 in the
warmest locales as overnight low temperatures will be fairly cool
and relieving generally in the 50s. Friday's storms should be
slightly more numerous and extending further west into the
Cascades versus today with a more significant trough approaching.

The deep upper low digs into the PacNW by Saturday cooling
temperatures by 3-8 degrees. Stavish

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail across
northern California and southern Oregon today, with gusty winds
expected along the Oregon coast and over Roseburg this afternoon.
Winds will calm quickly tonight. There are hints of lower ceilings
and visibilities developing over North Bend late tonight or early in
the morning, but confidence in this is very low. OTherwise, VFR
will continue through the remainder of the TAF period. -BPN/TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Thursday, June 6, 2024...A thermal trough
will continue to produce gusty north winds and steep wind-driven
seas across the area coastal waters, with very steep and hazardous
seas south of Cape Blanco. Winds will peak late this afternoon and
evening, with gale winds possible south of Gold Beach before winds
start to decrease overnight and into Friday morning. Even as winds
decrease, very steep seas will continue south of Cape Blanco into
late Friday morning. Steep seas will remain in all waters into late
Friday night.

Please see MWWMFR to see more detailed areas of expected hazards as
well as timing for current Small Craft Advisories and Hazardous Seas
Warnings.

Seas will be calm through Saturday, although westerly swell will
start to increase during the day and a thermal trough will return
late Saturday night. Steep seas are expected to return to all waters
Sunday  and continue into early next week as the thermal trough
strengthens. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&