Gale Warning 5, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1028 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2024

Updated AVIATION Section

.DISCUSSION...The main components of the forecast remain on track.
Winds are expected to be gusty (40-60 mph) east of the Cascades
and new light (< 1") snowfall amounts could lead to some localized
impacts from low visibility in blowing snow. There is also the
additional snowfall in the Cascades of about 7 inches or more as
snow levels rise from around 4800-5000 feet up to 5300-5800 feet
this afternoon. Additional details can be found in the wind and
winter weather advisories or in the previous discussion below.

The big change to the forecast comes the way of the Northwest
River Forecast Center and the forecast for the Coquille River. The
latest forecast this morning has the Coquille River at Coquille
returning to flood stage around 7 PM tonight and continuing to
rise to moderate flood at 23.45 feet around 1 PM on Thursday. The
river is forecast to stay at flood stage through Saturday, but a
long duration atmospheric river may cause this period of flooding
to be sustained longer than currently forecast. The uncertainty is
where the bulk of the moisture impacts the coast. It is most
likely to have steering flow from the southwest, causing Curry
County and NorCal to absorb most of the moisture. If the main
moisture axis lifts a little further north though, the 1-2"
currently forecast in the Coquille River basin, could trend up
well above 2". The overall message though is to head local
warnings and respect any barriers put up across roads. Remember,
turn around, don't drown.
-Miles

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z TAFs...Moist onshore flow continues to bring
widespread light to moderate precipitation from the coast to the
Cascades this morning with MVFR and higher terrain obscured.
Precipitation is more spotty east of the Cascades (mostly over the
mountains). Areas of IFR are prevalent along the coast. Interior
west side valleys like the Umpqua Basin, Illinois and Rogue Valley
all have VFR, though MVFR is also possible at times. Freezing levels
are in the 5000 to 6000 foot range. SSW winds aloft are still fairly
strong with mountain wave turbulence likely. Winds are also
surfacing at some of the usual spots east of the Cascades (Summer
Lake) with gusts to 50 mph. At Klamath Falls, gusts may approach 30
kt this afternoon. Brief gusty or at least breezy conditions should
also develop at Roseburg/Medford this afternoon. Precipitation will
taper off or even end in many areas this afternoon/early this
evening, but a warm front will move in with a another shot at some
light rain/snow later this evening/overnight. Ceilings will continue
to be mostly in the MVFR category, though local IFR is likely as
well into Thursday morning. Freezing levels will eventually rise to
7000 to 8000 feet during this time frame. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM Wednesday January 17, 2024...A very high
and very steep wind driven fresh swell will maintain warning level
seas through this evening. Conditions will improve some overall
tonight, but steep (inner waters) to very steep (outer waters) seas
will persist through Thursday evening with gusty southeast winds
returning Thursday morning. Strong winds will persist through
Thursday and increase late Thursday into Friday as another strong
front arrives. Winds will likely reach gales by early Friday morning
and result in another period of steep to very steep seas. Additional
fronts are likely to bring unsettled weather through this weekend.
/BR-y

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2024/

DISCUSSION...Currently steady rain is passing through parts of
southern Josephine County including Selma and Cave Junction, in
southern Douglas County, and from central Jackson County
northward. Later this morning the precipitation will focus on the
coast and Cascades. Another 1.25" to 2.25" of rain is forecast for
the coast today with the Umpqua Basin expecting 0.25" to 0.50".
Snow levels will hover 5,000 to 6,000 feet today. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect through this evening for the Cascades as
the area will see more snow with totals nearing 20 inches near
Crater Lake. The heaviest snow will fall this morning through the
afternoon with at least a 70% probability for Crater Lake to see
an inch per hour snowfall rates early today.

A mid-level jet of 50+ mph will move through today From Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday evening with the strongest winds found
in Lake and Klamath counties. This will be support the need for a
Wind Advisory later this morning through the evening for locations
in Lake and Klamath counties. Gusts reaching 45 mph from Summer
Lake through north of Paisley on Highway 31 have a 65% to 85%
probability of occurring with a 50% to 70% probability of gusts
to reach 55 mph. The other areas included in this have a 50% to
70% probability to see gusts reach 45 mph today.

Starting Thursday there is a near 90%+ probability of seeing
temperatures at or above normal in Medford for the next week! This
applies to a broader area of the Rogue Valley and more west side
valleys. For reference, the average high this time of year for
Medford, Grants Pass and Ashland is the upper 40s with an average
high in the low 50s for mid-/late January in Roseburg. For lows,
there is generally a 60% to 80% probability for freezing
temperatures for east side locations as the forecast favors lows
between 30 to 35 degrees. West side lows the next several days
will generally be in the upper 30s to low to mid-40s.

After this system, there will be a break with ridging taking place.
By Friday that is interrupted as a front moves in and brings a cold
front with rain and snow. The rain will be concentrated near the
coast while a southerly flow will focus the snowfall to Northern
California. Temperatures will still be near to above normal during
this time. -Hermansen

AVIATION...17/12Z TAFs...Low pressure pushing through the region
this morning is bringing a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions for areas
north of the OR/CA border and mainly VFR conditions south of the
OR/CA border. Widespread terrain obscurations are also present and
heavier precipitation is resulting in brief periods of LIFR
conditions across West Side Valleys. Gusty winds are also present
across the higher terrain and along the coast. Expect current
conditions to largely prevail until around sunrise when MVFR
conditions become more widespread. Later this morning and into the
afternoon, the front will begin to lift northward with conditions
improving from south to north as this happens and gusty winds
surfacing for many of the more sheltered valleys. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 200 AM Wednesday January 17, 2024...Gales will
ease by early this morning, but southwest winds will remain gusty
today. Despite the lowering of winds this morning, a very high and
very steep wind driven fresh swell will maintain warning level seas
through this evening. Conditions will improve some overall tonight,
but steep (inner waters) to very steep (outer waters) seas will
persist through Thursday evening with gusty southeast winds
returning Thursday morning. Strong winds will persist through
Thursday and increase late Thursday into Friday as another strong
front arrives. Winds will likely reach gales by early Friday morning
and result in another period of steep to very steep seas. Additional
fronts are likely to bring unsettled weather through this weekend.
/BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for ORZ027-
     028.

CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Friday
     for PZZ350-356.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ370-376.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
853 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Rain             2 SSE Pistol River      42.26N 124.39W
01/17/2024  M4.05 inch       Curry              OR   Trained Spotter

            Accumulation over 24 hours.

&&

CZS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
903 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 AM     Rain             4 NNE Takilma           42.11N 123.58W
01/17/2024  M1.23 inch       Josephine          OR   Trained Spotter

            24 hour accumulation.

&&

CZS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
1009 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 AM     Rain             Phoenix                 42.27N 122.82W
01/17/2024  M0.49 inch       Jackson            OR   Trained Spotter

            24 hours ending 10 am.

&&

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