Gale Warning 44, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
858 AM PST Fri Dec 20 2024

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows high and mid level clouds
moving through the area, with a weak frontal boundary just
offshore. Underneath the high and mid level clouds are low clouds
in portions of the Umpqua Basin, Illinois and Rogue Valley,
Applegate Valley and Grants Pass area with patchy fog in these
locations. It's possible the low clouds could linger into early
this afternoon, if not longer. The fog will likely lift to a low
overcast by the afternoon. Radar is showing light returns over the
marine waters and coastal counties, but so far no measureable
precipitation has been reported. At last look, no rain has been
reported along the coast. Therefore suspect the returns showing up
on radar are aloft, with little if anything reaching the ground.
Therefore pops have been adjusted lower for today.

The next focus of concern will be late tonight into Saturday as a
stronger cold front approaches the coast. The main concern will be
moderate to strong winds in the Shasta Valley, south end of the
Rogue Valley and higher terrain east of the Cascades. A wind
advisory is already for these areas. The main question is if we'll
need to upgrade the south end of the Shasta Valley to a high wind
warning. Preliminary indications suggest this is possible. So
we'll look into this in more detail and if we do upgrade it will
be issued this afternoon. -Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z TAFS...LIFR fog is in the Rogue Valley, including
Medford and Grants Pass and the Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg.
These conditions will persist through this morning, then expect
improving conditions in the afternoon. Valley LIFR/IFR is expected
to develop again this evening, then be disrupted by the next front
moving inland during Saturday morning. South/southeast winds will
increase towards the end of the TAF period with the passing front.
-DW/Hermansen

&&

.MARINE...Updated 900 AM PST Friday, December 20, 2024...Several
very strong fronts are expected this weekend into next week with
persistent very high and very steep, chaotic, dangerous seas,
interrupted by periods of gales.

A weak front will move into the waters today, with moderate south
winds resulting in steep wind driven seas.

Of bigger concern will be tonight with a stronger front approaching
the waters, bringing strong south winds that will reach gales later
tonight into at least the mid morning hours Saturday. Winds will
shift southwest and diminish below gales from around mid morning
Saturday into Saturday afternoon. However, seas will remain very
steep.

Additional stronger fronts follow Sunday into early next week
resulting in periods of gales and prolonged, very high and very
steep seas.  Seas will be a mix of short period wind seas and long
period swell (with periods of around 14 to 20 seconds). This will
likely result a prolonged period of hazardous seas conditions across
the waters. Currently, seas of 15 to 24 feet are forecast from this
afternoon through the latter portion of next week. Particularly
during next week, the strength and timing of the fronts and
resultant sea states are not certain. But, episodes of very steep
seas and dangerous bar conditions are expected. -Hermansen/Petrucelli

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 230 AM PST Friday, December 20,
2024...The unsettled weather will bring increasing swells this week
and into the weekend. As additional fronts move through the area,
additional swells will build into the waters bringing large breaking
waves between 22 to 26 feet to Oregon beaches today into Saturday.
Surf lowers only slightly on Sunday, then another system could bring
even higher swells causing breaking waves from 25 to 30 feet Sunday
night into early next week. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for
Saturday morning through Sunday evening to account for the hazardous
conditions.

Models continue to show this active pattern with increasing surf
into early next week. However, the exact details on the magnitude
may change as this forecast is refined. Confidence is higher for
periods of high surf into this weekend and medium for into early
next week. High surf could cause dangerous beach conditions where
beach erosion and/or damage to exposed infrastructure will be
possible. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates. -CC/Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Saturday for
     ORZ026-030-031.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 10 PM PST Sunday for
     ORZ021-022.

CA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Saturday for
     CAZ081-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 AM PST
     Saturday for PZZ350-356.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Saturday for PZZ370-376.

&&