Gale Warning 15, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1054 AM PDT Sun Mar 10 2024

Updated AVIATION Section

.DISCUSSION...No major changes are needed to the forecast this
morning. A band of precipitation is moving eastward over southern
Oregon and northern California this morning, bringing widespread
showers to areas west of the Cascades. Elevated gusty winds have
persisted at the coast longer than expected, supporting an
extension of a High Wind Warning through 11 AM PDT. Gusty winds
are also expected for the Shasta Valley and for areas east of the
Cascades through this evening. Winter weather hazards remain in
place for western Siskiyou County, the Cascades near Crater Lake
and Diamond Lake, and Willamette Pass.

Please see the previous discussion for more details about the
short- and long-term forecasts. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs...A front stretching from the Cascades
southwestward into NW California late this morning will move east of
the Cascades this afternoon and evening. Gusty S-SW winds and
mountain wave turbulence are occurring in advance of the front and
these will continue through about 00-03Z. An area of steadier
precipitation is accompanying the frontal boundary with conditions
lowering to MVFR (with higher terrain obscured), and locally IFR in
the heaviest rain/snow. Behind the front, precipitation is turning
more showery along the coast, though enough instability exists for
an isolated thunderstorm or two over the coastal waters and the
coast, but probably west of Roseburg through this afternoon.

In addition to the gusty winds, some precipitation will move east of
the Cascades along the front this afternoon/evening, but intensity
should not be as high as it is now. Still, light rain/snow is
expected at Klamath Falls from around 20Z this afternoon to 02Z this
evening before ending.

Areas of MVFR conditions and widespread mountain obscurations will
persist in showers this evening and tonight.

The next front will approach the coast on Monday. Expect a renewed
risk of low-level wind shear at North Bend during the morning as
winds accelerate rapidly just off the surface. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM Sunday, March 10, 2024...A strong front is
pushing onshore this morning, with gales expected to persist for the
next hour or so. Very steep and hazardous short period seas will
continue behind the front with winds turning southwesterly and
gradually lowering behind the front later this morning into this
afternoon.

Behind this front, a long period west swell will move into the
waters late this afternoon and this evening with a swell group
around 15 to 17 feet at 14 to 15 seconds. This large swell
will maintain steep to very steep seas tonight. Then a second front
will move across the waters Monday afternoon into Monday night with
another round of gales and very steep seas likely.

High pressure builds into place Tuesday into Wednesday. By
Wednesday, winds will shift to a northerly summer-like thermal
trough pattern while moderate swell continues to come in from the
northwest. While this change in pattern will lead to a net lowering
of sea heights and a reduction in steepness, current forecasts keep
advisory conditions in place for most of the area area into the end
of the week. -CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 459 AM PDT Sun Mar 10 2024/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently pushing onshore with some strong winds
up to 60 mph being observed along the coast. In addition, a few
sites in the coastal mountains are seeing some pretty strong winds
as well. Winds are also a bit stronger than anticipated in
valleys west of the Cascades this morning with Roseburg reporting
wind gusts up to 30 knots. These stronger winds will make their
way east of the Cascades by the afternoon hours. Winds aloft
around 4000 feet above ground level east of the Cascades are up to
65 knots, which is pretty strong. However, the lapse rates
suggests we're not mixing that deep and wind gusts up to 45 knots
are much more likely. Perhaps some exposed terrain on ridges or in
the Warners could see those 65 mph wind gusts, but impacts are
pretty minimal at those elevations. Therefore, we opted to just
keep the wind advisory this afternoon.

Elsewhere, south winds in the Shasta Valley should be in fell
swing this morning with a Redding to Medford pressure gradient
around is around 6 to 7, which suggests wind gusts around the 45
to 50 mph range are most likely. The wind impacts are traveling
difficulties for high profile vehicles.

Other than strong winds, we also have some winter weather
headlines. Compared to what we've seen over the last month or so,
this is not as impactful winter weather. We're forecasting about 6
to 10 inches of snow above 5000 feet in northern California and
the Cascades. The winter weather advisory in western Siskiyou
County falls below that, although snow accumulation and impacts
for that matter will be minimal around 3500 feet. Most of the
snow should fall in a 6 hour period between 11 am and 5 pm this
evening. Sometimes these higher snowfall rates can make travel
pretty difficult, but it should be short lived, which suggests
this is more of a minor impact winter event.

After this front moves through, we'll see yet another cold front
move through the forecast area Monday evening. Another quick shot
of 6 to 10 inches of snow is anticipated to be added to the
snowpack with snow levels right around 4500 feet. The Coquille
River is under threat of minor flooding given the snow melt for
the low elevation snow the last few weeks some of this additional
rainfall.

We'll finally see a longer stretch of dry and warm coming up this
week. Ensembles are very confident of a ridge building in and
temperatures warming up across the forecast area. We're
forecasting high temperatures around or slightly above 70 degrees
in Medford on Friday, Saturday and Sunday! This may seem warm,
although it's only 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of
year. Temperatures in the mountains will be pushing into the mid
50's for highs next weekend. Overall, pretty great recreation
weather mid week into next weekend.

-Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ024-025-
     029>031.

     High Wind Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ021-022.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ027-
     028.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon above 3500
     feet for CAZ080.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ081-084-085.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ082-
     083.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
     CAZ082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Medford OR
1122 AM PDT Sun Mar 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     Rain             6 E Gold Beach          42.42N 124.31W
03/10/2024  M1.20 inch       Curry              OR   CO-OP Observer

&&