Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
228 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Tropical Depression Four will cross through NW Cuba and emerge
into the SE GOM this afternoon, which should result in gradual
strengthening of the system through the short term period (with
the system likely becoming Tropical Storm Debbie at some point in
the very near future). Rain bands on the northern fringe of this
system are just approaching southern portions of the area, and
these will continue to lift northwestward this afternoon into the
evening. The main threat with these bands will be gusty
convective winds (as evidence by the numerous 35-45mph observed
gusts so far), and locally heavy rainfall. Late this afternoon and
into the evening/overnight period we will begin to see 0-1km
helicity increase over primarily SW portions of the area which
will result in the threat of an isolated tornado (or waterspout
over the Gulf waters). For more details regarding potential
impacts to South Florida please refer to the latest Hurricane
Local Statement.

The system will slowly push to the north of the area during the
day on Sunday although the moisture tail along the southeastern
flank of the system will still result in scattered to numerous
tropical showers over portions of the area. At present it looks
like the best rain chances will be over the western half of the
area, with somewhat drier conditions over the east coast.
Unfortunately, the seemingly constant threat of heat advisory
conditions for MD/Broward counties will return, particularly if
the drier solution verifies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Early Monday, the threat of tropical impacts will decrease,
though coastal areas of Collier County may still experience
occasional wind gusts near tropical storm force. This is partially
dependent on the translational speed of the future tropical
system Debby. A potential slow-down could maintain a strong
onshore flow.

Monday to Wednesday: The forecast for early next week will be
heavily influenced by the tropical system to our north. There
remains significant model and ensemble disparity regarding the
progression of future Debby as it moves across Florida into the
Atlantic. Recent trends suggest Debby may become trapped between
two competing high-pressure systems, inhibiting its forward speed.
Consequently, deep-layer tropical moisture is expected to persist
over much of South Florida, with numerous showers and
thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to
flooding, especially in areas already impacted by rain over the
weekend from peripheral rainbands. Probability of Precipitation
(POPs) will be maintained in the 50-70% range, highest over the
western half of the County Warning Area (CWA).

Wednesday Night to Friday Night: Long-range solutions show a fair
consensus in establishing ridging aloft, which will help suppress
deep convection. Any isolated stronger storms will primarily
result from diurnal heating and outflow boundary interactions.

With a progressive southerly flow advecting a warm air mass into
the region and additional mid-level ridging building in the late
long-term period, high temperatures should remain in the low 90s
despite increased cloud cover and elevated rainfall probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Bands of SHRA/TSRA will rotate across the region today with gusty
SErly winds at times. VFR cigs and conditions will prevail at area
terminals outside of convection with the potential of MVFR and sub-
MVFR cigs in and around SHRA/TSRA convection. Stronger gusts could
be realized as convective bands move directly over terminals. Low
uncertainty as far as timing for convective bands thus short
fused amendments and TEMPOs may be needed if radar trends depict
terminal impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Hazardous conditions will continue over all waters today and into
Sunday as Tropical Depression Four moves into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. The strongest winds will likely be in the Gulf
waters where tropical storm conditions will be possible, while
high-end (i.e. gusts 30-35kts and seas 7-10 ft) small craft
advisory conditions can be expected across the Atlantic waters.
Additionally stronger gusts can be expected in any
thunderstorms/bands.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

As winds increase out of the south southeast, a high risk of rip
currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches
throughout the weekend. As winds shift and become more south
southwest as Tropical Depression Four pushes off to the north, this
will result in a high risk of rip currents over the Gulf Coast
beaches for the second half of the weekend into early next week.
Additionally, minor to moderate coastal flooding may occur along
the Gulf Coast during Sunday's high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  91  82  92 /  60  50  40  60
West Kendall     78  90  79  92 /  60  50  40  60
Opa-Locka        80  92  81  93 /  60  50  30  60
Homestead        80  90  80  92 /  60  40  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  82  92 /  50  50  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  81  90  82  92 /  60  50  40  50
Pembroke Pines   80  93  80  95 /  50  50  40  60
West Palm Beach  80  92  79  92 /  60  50  30  60
Boca Raton       80  92  80  93 /  60  50  40  50
Naples           78  87  80  90 /  80  90  60  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ069-075.

     High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     evening for FLZ069.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
     Sunday night for FLZ069-075-174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Pine
AVIATION...Hadi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
521 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
042130-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
521 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Tropical Headlines are in effect for portions of South Florida. See
latest Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Tropical Headlines are in effect for portions of South Florida. See
latest Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
614 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

FLZ071>074-173-032300-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
614 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
and southern Broward Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 614 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of
Intersection Krome And U.S. 27 to Doral to near Pinecrest. Movement
was northwest at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Miramar, Davie, Miami
Beach, Plantation, Sunrise, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, South Miami,
Surfside, Miami Gardens, Kendall, Weston, North Miami, Doral, North
Miami Beach, and Miami Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2577 8013 2582 8018 2581 8019 2578 8018
      2577 8015 2576 8014 2577 8019 2576 8019
      2574 8015 2574 8021 2572 8015 2567 8016
      2574 8023 2561 8035 2573 8052 2591 8062
      2615 8063 2614 8036 2608 8022 2584 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 156DEG 34KT 2589 8052 2580 8033 2564 8024

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hadi

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
634 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 N Juno Beach          26.89N 80.06W
08/03/2024  M59 MPH          AMZ650             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XJUP Juno Beach Pier
            reported a wind gust of 59mph at 6:06pm.

&&

Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
658 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

FLZ073-074-173-032330-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
658 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
County through 730 PM EDT...

At 658 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a waterspout over Biscayne
Bay along a line extending from near Key Biscayne to near Turkey
Point. Movement was northwest at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous waters. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs
         and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Homestead, Coral Gables, South Miami, Black Point,
Turkey Point, Kendall, The Redland, Doral, Miami Lakes, Hialeah
Gardens, Pinecrest, Miami Springs, Sweetwater, West Miami, Medley,
Westchester, Naranja, and Glenvar Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds can touch down and produce waterspouts. Although
typically weak and short lived, a landfalling waterspout can cause
property damage and serious injury.

&&

LAT...LON 2571 8025 2569 8025 2569 8026 2564 8027
      2561 8031 2557 8030 2554 8031 2554 8032
      2550 8034 2546 8034 2544 8032 2540 8033
      2539 8031 2538 8031 2542 8038 2570 8055
      2587 8060 2594 8034 2574 8022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 155DEG 35KT 2568 8020 2544 8024

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hadi

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
745 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

FLZ071-072-040000-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
745 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Broward
County through 800 PM EDT...

At 745 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud near East
Toll Gate On Alligator Alley, or 9 miles west of Pembroke Pines,
moving northwest at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Weston, Mile Marker 30 On Alligator Alley, Intersection Alligator
Alley And Miami Canal, East Toll Gate On Alligator Alley,
Intersection I-75 And U.S. 27, Miccosukee Service Plaza, and West
Broward Rec. Area On Alligator Alley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 2605 8038 2607 8087 2631 8087 2629 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 146DEG 31KT 2606 8048

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hadi