Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
336 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...ON GOING MAJOR FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
FRIDAY...

...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A pretty sloppy setup this afternoon as precipitation overspreads
South Florida. A frontal boundary remains stalled out over central
Florida this afternoon as a few shortwave impulses pivot into the
area and interact with the anomalous tropical moisture (PWATs
2.3-2.5 inches) that remains pooled over the area. Areas of the
interior have already seen broad swatches of 4-8 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, while the East Coast has just begun
to see accumulations increase with 2-4 inches across portions of
Miami- Dade and Broward counties. As rainfall continues, portions
of the region could see several additional inches, enhancing the
concern for considerable flash flooding especially for areas that
already saw 4-6 inches of rain on Tuesday. The possibility for
severe weather (tornadoes and gusty winds) also remains a
secondary threat through the evening. Some of the discrete cells
today have shown rotation signatures and ACARS soundings support
a threat for additional quick spin-up tornadoes. With ample cloud
coverage and precipitation over the area, high temperatures will
remain in low-mid 80s over much of the region.

The only notable change to the synoptic pattern on Thursday will
be the development of an intensifying sfc. low over the stalled
boundary to our north, just off the SE Coast. This low (which may
eventually acquire subtropical characteristics over the Gulf
Stream) will shift NE in the late week period, but looks to at
least in the short term keep the subtropical moisture tap in place
over our area through Thursday (i.e. the classic cyclone moisture
tail).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.Thursday Night To Friday...
The low level trough will continue to remain over South Florida
from the tropical low over Northwest Atlantic waters to Southwest
Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the continuation of PWAT
values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range which is near the maximum value
for this time of year. This means that we can still see very
heavy rainfall thursday night into Friday over South Florida.
Additional rainfall amounts during this time frame can still be 2
to 4 inches over the area on top of the already heavy rainfall
that been occurring over the area. This will continue to lead to
possible flooding conditions. Therefore, the Flood Watch has been
extended until Friday evening for all of South Florida.

There could also be possibility of some severe weather over South
Florida during this time frame, as some cooler air in the mid
levels of the atmosphere works down the Florida peninsula from
the north. 500 mb temperatures should be able to get down to -7 to

-8C. Primary impacts will be mainly gusty winds, heavy rainfall,
 but cannot rule out an isolated tornado.

.This Weekend...
The trough of low pressure will remain over South Florida this
weekend keeping the PWAT values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range which
is still near the maximum value for this time of year. Therefore,
the heavy rainfall will continue across South Florida this
weekend. POPs will remain in the likely range over South Florida
this weekend. Therefore, the Flood watch could be needed to be
extended into the weekend over South Florida in later updates.

Highs will also remain cooler in the 80s due to the cloud cover
and showers and thunderstorms. Lows will also remain in the mid
to upper 70s except around 80 over the metro areas.

.Early Next Week...
The long range models are showing that the trough of low pressure
should weaken early next week allowing for high pressure to build
back into the area. This should allow for some drier air to work
into South Florida leading to more of typical summer weather
pattern with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

All terminals could continue to experience periods of MVFR/IFR
conditions this afternoon as repeated rounds of SHRA/TSRA
overspread across South FL. IFR TEMPOs from 18-22Z may need to be
amended/extended as conditions evolve, with LIFR restrictions
possible as well. Rain chances decrease overnight, but a few
rounds of SHRA could still impact terminals through the night.
Outside of storm outflows generally southerly winds - gusty at
times - will prevail through the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Near cautionary southerly winds will persist over the area waters
today as the area remains south of a stalled front and associated
surface low. These winds will decrease Thursday into the late
week period as the low progresses northeast into the Atlantic
waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms remain likely through
much of the upcoming week resulting in periods of locally higher
winds and seas. Outside of storms wave heights should remain 3 ft
or less through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  85  76  86 /  90  80  90 100
West Kendall     75  87  74  87 / 100  80  90 100
Opa-Locka        77  87  76  88 /  90  80  90 100
Homestead        76  87  75  86 / 100  80  90  90
Fort Lauderdale  77  84  77  86 /  90  80  90 100
N Ft Lauderdale  77  85  76  87 /  90  80  90 100
Pembroke Pines   77  88  77  89 /  90  80  90 100
West Palm Beach  75  85  75  87 /  80  90  90 100
Boca Raton       76  86  76  87 /  90  80  90 100
Naples           77  86  76  86 /  80  90 100 100

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...ATV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
1002 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
131415-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1002 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Excessive Rainfall: With multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible,
the potential for flash flooding will exist especially across the
urban and poor drainage areas. The rainfall will be particularly
problematic for urban and recently soaked regions.

Thunderstorms: Numerous thunderstorms are expected over South
Florida today. Some of the thunderstorms could contain gusty winds
and heavy downpours.

There will be a moderate risk of rip currents for the Collier county
beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Enhanced tropical moisture will be in place over South Florida
through at least Friday, resulting in periods of heavy rain and a
flooding threat. See Flood Watch for the latest details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
341 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW Dania Beach        26.07N 80.15W
06/12/2024                   Broward            FL   Local Official

            Reports of standing water on airport runways
            at Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood International
            Airport. There are delays, cancellations, &
            standing water on the neighboring roadways.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
355 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     Flash Flood      2 NW Fort Lauderdale    26.14N 80.17W
06/12/2024                   Broward            FL   Emergency Mngr

            Corrects previous flash flood report from 2
            NW Fort Lauderdale. Interstate 95 southbound
            traffic is being diverted onto Oakland Park
            Blvd. The entrances to Interstate 95 at
            Sunrise Blvd, Broward Blvd, Davie Blvd, and
            SR-84 have been closed due to flooding and
            inaccessible roadways.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
404 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     Flash Flood      2 WNW North Miami       25.91N 80.22W
06/12/2024                   Miami-Dade         FL   Public

            Miami-Dade EM reports that the fire
            department made a rescue from a home due to
            3 - 4 feet of water in home. In a
            neighborhood near NW 145th St and NW 7th Ave
            in North Miami.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
412 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     Flash Flood      North Miami area        25.91N 80.20W
06/12/2024                   Miami-Dade         FL   Dept of Highways

            95 ramp south bound at 151ST flooded. 95
            ramp North bound at 135ST flooded. 95 South
            Express lanes flooded at NW 67th ST. 95
            North/South flooded at US 441. Gratigny
            Parkway flooded at NW 42ST and at NW 32st.

&&

BNB