Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity
once again today as a diffuse front remains draped over the area,
with a weak surface low just east of the peninsula. The 12Z sounding
today showed ample instability and moisture in the lower levels
which could support a few strong thunderstorms mainly along the
sea breeze boundary over the East Coast. However, lack of upper
level dynamics and weaker shear/lapse rates parameters (as
compared to yesterday) will help reduce the chances for severe
impacts, with only a few isolated stronger storms potentially
producing gusty winds and small hail.

Temperatures will remain above average as westerly/southwesterly
winds prevail across the area this afternoon, but lower dew points
today compared to the last couple of days should help keep heat
index values at or below 100 degrees.

The front will largely have worked its way through the area by
Tuesday, and surface flow will generally begin to veer more east-
northeast through the day. Rain chances will remain elevated as a
trailing shortwave pivots into the area, with at least scattered
storms likely igniting along the two sea breezes (with the northeast
winds tending to favor southern portions of the area). Temperatures
will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s which while still a few
degrees above average, may actually feel pleasant after the mid-May
heatwave.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

By the mid-week, the mid-level shortwave propagates to the east of
the region over the western Atlantic waters. The 500mb flow over
South Florida will veer to a northerly direction ushering in
reinforcing dry air across the region. At the surface, ridging
situated over the southeastern United States will allow for
relatively light winds across the region. Therefore, with a lack of
synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze
circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable
locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical
thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will
be possible, but we cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse
storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized
ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly
benign pattern.

This benign weather will continue for much of the long-term period
as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features
remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the
surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region
will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest
temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the
Atlantic sea-breeze is able to traverse further inland. High
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the
east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s
across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less
oppressive then the past couple of days, heat safety precautions
should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally VFR conditions for all TAF sites today, although sub-VFR
conditions are possible for East Coast sites this afternoon as
SHRA/TSRA develop near the area. W-SW winds 8-12 kts will prevail
today, but some East Coast sites could see the sea breeze
intruding after 19Z, resulting in a E-SE wind shift. Light and
variable winds overnight as conditions improve, with more easterly
winds possible tomorrow across much of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters
through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be expected today and tomorrow as a diffuse front gradually
moves across the region, with locally enhanced winds and seas
possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Conditions
will improve into the week as high pressure builds over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  88  75  88 /  30  50  50  50
West Kendall     73  90  73  90 /  20  50  40  50
Opa-Locka        75  89  75  90 /  30  50  40  50
Homestead        75  89  75  88 /  30  50  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  75  87  76  86 /  30  50  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  74  87  75  87 /  40  40  40  50
Pembroke Pines   75  91  76  91 /  30  40  40  50
West Palm Beach  73  87  73  87 /  30  40  40  40
Boca Raton       74  88  75  88 /  30  40  40  50
Naples           74  91  74  92 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....NC/JS
AVIATION...ATV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
330 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
211930-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
330 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon East Coast...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon. The strongest thunderstorms, which should be focused
near the east coast, will be capable of gusty winds, hail, frequent
lightning, and localized heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Daily thunderstorm chances will remain for much of the upcoming
week, with gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and heavy
rain possible.

The risk of rip currents along the East Coast returns later this
week as easterly flow sets up.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

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