Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
235 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

A bit of a transitional period is in store for weather conditions
across South FL today as a frontal boundary drops through
the region. Ahead of the boundary, generally southerly winds
have sustained enhanced moisture profiles across the area
which - combined with moderate instability forecast for
southeast FL this afternoon - could help support the development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, high-res
models show the best chances for convective initiation to be
located along the East Coast metro areas where the sea breeze
sets up. The threat for severe weather with the storms today
is much lower than the last couple of days as a shortwave trough
departs to the east and warmer air advects over the area aloft.

Once the boundary pushes southward sometime this
afternoon/tonight, light, variable winds and lingering moisture
over much of South FL could promote the development of
patchy fog overnight and into the early Friday morning hours.

Warmer and drier conditions look likely on Friday as ridging
builds aloft and easterly flow sets up. Enough moisture may
remain to support slight chances for showers across the region,
but subsidence should help limit coverage and intensity.

The high temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the
lower 80s along coastal areas and mid 80s over the interior.
Temperatures overnight could drop to the mid 60s over the
interior and lower 70s along the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

The warm and dry weather pattern from Friday extends into
the first half of the weekend as mid-level ridging continues to
build over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula.
Generally easterly/southeasterly winds and strong subsidence
aloft combined with warm air advection along the column will
 result in very warm temperatures this weekend, potentially
reaching the upper 80s and even breaking records in some locations.

Chances for showers and a few storms could return on Sunday
afternoon as a diffuse frontal boundary attached to a surface
low over the Ohio Valley approaches our area.

A brief cool-down could be possible behind this boundary on
Monday as winds become more northwesterly, with high
temperatures in the mid 70s across much of South FL.
However, this cold-down could be short-lived as winds quickly
veer out of the East on Tuesday and temperatures begin a
gradual warm-up through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

A complex aviation forecast today, as sub-VFR cigs will be
possible through the morning hours along with a few showers.
Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms (particularly
for the SE terminals) will be possible this afternoon resulting in
additional chances of restrictions. Light and variable winds will
persist through much of the morning, before becoming (outside of
storm outflows) E-SE on the east coast, and W-SW at KAPF this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

Generally improving maritime conditions to close out the workweek,
with predominantly southerly/southwesterly winds this morning
becoming easterly/southeasterly around 10 kts following the passage
of a frontal boundary. Seas in the 2-4 range are expected for much
of the area. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms remain
possible over the local waters today, potentially resulting in
locally higher winds and seas. A return to cautionary conditions
is possible later this weekend as another boundary approaches
the region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

The Rip Current Risk will temporarily diminish today over the east
coast, before beginning to increase again Friday into the weekend
as southeasterly flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  71  83  74 /  40  20  10   0
West Kendall     83  68  85  70 /  40  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        83  70  84  72 /  50  20  10   0
Homestead        83  70  84  72 /  40  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  80  71  82  73 /  40  30  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  80  71  83  73 /  50  30  20   0
Pembroke Pines   83  70  85  72 /  50  20  10   0
West Palm Beach  80  69  82  71 /  40  30  20   0
Boca Raton       81  70  84  72 /  40  30  20   0
Naples           80  68  85  70 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Carr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
428 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
080930-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
428 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

...Patchy Fog Possible Interior and West This Morning and Again Tonight...
...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Palm Beach...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
mainly over the East Coast. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible
with the stronger storms.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for
Palm Beach county beaches.

Visibility:  Patchy fog may linger across the interior and west coast
early this morning. This could reduce visibility in some locations
especially over interior sections. Fog development will be likely once again tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rip current risks will likely remain elevated through the end of the
work week and into the weekend along the Atlantic coast.

Boating conditions could become hazardous over the weekend as
winds increase from the east-southeast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
522 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

FLZ073-075-071045-
Mainland Monroe FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
522 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Mainland
Monroe and northern Miami-Dade Counties through 545 AM EST...

At 521 AM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Fortymile Bend, or 23 miles northwest of
Homestead General Airport, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Shark Valley Obs Tower and Fortymile Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2562 8080 2577 8090 2589 8065 2574 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 241DEG 11KT 2571 8084

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
609 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

FLZ073-071145-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
609 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
County through 645 AM EST...

At 609 AM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud near Shark
Valley Obs Tower, or 18 miles northwest of The Redland, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Miami-Dade
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2568 8072 2575 8080 2586 8064 2576 8054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1109Z 236DEG 10KT 2571 8074

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JS