Wind Advisory 16, NWS Memphis, TN

904 
WWUS74 KMEG 312247
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
447 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

ARZ009-018-026-028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-010000-
/O.EXP.KMEG.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-241231T2300Z/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Mississippi-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-
Including the cities of Corning, Caruthersville, Kennett,
Blytheville, Tiptonville, Jonesboro, Paragould, and Piggott
447 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

The threat has ended.

$$

JAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1120 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 202 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

A generally cooler and dry weather pattern is expected this week,
with temperatures falling a little each day. High temperatures by
Wednesday through the remainder of the week will be in the 40s to
the north and low 50s across southern portions of the Mid-South.
Overnight lows will fall near to below freezing Tuesday night
through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

After a cloudy start to the day, skies have cleared rapidly into
this afternoon with much of the area reaching the upper 50s to low
60s. This will likely be our last day with 60s for the foreseeable
future as a frontal boundary will move through overnight, ushering
in cooler weather. A few CAMs have some showers developing across
northeast portions of the Mid-South overnight, with total QPF
amounts likely remaining below a quarter of an inch. The majority
of the area will likely see an increase in cloudiness overnight,
but dry conditions otherwise.

Conditions will quickly dry out tomorrow, with a zonal flow
pattern building aloft. One other note for tomorrow, the parent
low will slide eastward just north of the area with a steep
pressure gradient through the region. As a result, winds will
likely be on the gustier side of things. Probabilistic guidance
suggests a 30 to 40% chance of exceeding Wind Advisory criteria
for locations north of I-40, especially across NE AR. Something to
keep in mind for future forecast packages, but regardless it will
be pretty windy around midday tomorrow. The aforementioned
upper-level flow pattern will continue through Thursday, generally
keeping the area dry and temperatures at to just below normal. By
Friday, northwesterly flow will return to the region, with a weak
shortwave passing early in the day. Some showers will be possible
along this boundary, but chances remain low (< 20%). In regards
to our temperatures, high temperatures will fall back into the 40s
to low 50s by Wednesday, with overnight lows remaining at to just
below freezing through at least Friday night.

Beyond Friday, stark guidance differences begin to arrive with the
trajectory of an upper-level low as it exits the Rocky Mountains
into the back half of the weekend. A few members want to bring a
quick shot of a colder airmass before the main system arrives,
which could bring mixed precipitation to the area. With that
being said, latest runs tend to lean towards a warmer solution in
which case any precip would be rain only. Something to watch over
the coming days, but given the vast model differences will leave
at that for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024

Biggest concern this TAF issuance remains gusty winds, up to 25
kts, as a frontal system and upper level low moves through. A
strong jet will bring llws continued across all TAF sites through
daybreak. The aforementioned front will bring MVFR conditions
across the airspace and keep us socked in through sunset tomorrow
when VFR conditions prevail at JBR/MEM. Gusts finally drop out as
winds shift north tomorrow evening behind the front.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AEH