Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1218 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Not much change to the current forecast. A large upper low
continues to churn over central Missouri at this hour. A well
defined vorticity maxima was located near the ArkLaMiss, as seen
from GOES East Water Vapor Channel. An ongoing area of showers
has begun to intensify in the past hour and could begin to produce
lightning within the hour. These showers and thunderstorms will
pivot through north Mississippi and west Tennessee through this
afternoon.

The latest surface analysis places a 1004mb low over the Missouri
Bootheel with an attendant warm front extending southeast into
Middle Tennessee with a cold front strewn nearly along the I-40
corridor. A small warm sector, ahead of the cold front will be an
area where a few strong storms could form this afternoon. MLCAPE
values will approach 1500 J/kg and combine with 30 knots of deep
layer shear. Hail and gusty winds would be the main threats with
any strong storms and will mainly affect portions of northeast
Mississippi and a sliver of west Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. The threat for strong storms will diminish by late
afternoon as the front pushes east of the area and rain stabilizes
the atmosphere. A few wraparound showers will persist through the
overnight hours as the main upper level low slowly moves into
Middle Tennessee.

The forecast is in good shape, with no major changes needed at
this time.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

At least a slight chance of rain and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast nearly every day this week. Wednesday looks to be
our best shot at dry conditions across the Midsouth. There is also
a chance for a dry weekend, but model guidance is not in total
agreement with this solution. High temperatures over the next
seven days should range from the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows
mainly in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A surface low in southeast Missouri and an upper level low over
northwest Missouri will result in more rain and thunderstorms
across the Midsouth today and tonight. These features will drift
slowly off to the east over the next 24-36 hours with shortwave
ridging building in from the west Wednesday. As a result,
Wednesday should be our best shot at dry conditions across the
Midsouth.

The ridge will shift over Middle Tennessee Thursday as a
trough digs to our west across the Four-Corners area. This
pattern will set up southwest flow across the region and a series
of weak shortwaves will traverse the middle and lower Mississippi
River Valley Thursday into the weekend. The focus for the
heaviest rain and stronger thunderstorms will likely remain to our
south, much like we have seen over the past couple of days.
Conditions should not be supportive of severe storms in the
Midsouth, but frequent lightning, gusty wind and heavy rainfall
can be expected with nearly any thunderstorm this time of year.
High temperatures over the next seven days should range from the
upper 70s to middle 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

For the weekend, guidance is coming into better agreement that
another ridge will build in from the west resulting in a drier
pattern. However, given recent discrepancies in previous model runs,
I'm not comfortable totally removing PoPs just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A cold front just west of the Mississippi River has initiated
convection just south of MEM. More redevelopment is anticipated as
this front treks east. Tempos for TSRA are at all of the eastern
sites. Any strong thunderstorms could lower cigs to MVFR and
provide brief periods of lower visbys. After the passage, VFR
conditions will prevail. Guidance was hinting at a brief period of
MVFR cigs tomorrow, but ridging should push in quickly so opted
for a SCT deck instead.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...DNM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1253 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

TNZ091-092-141830-
McNairy TN-Hardin TN-
1253 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCNAIRY AND WEST
CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Selmer, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Selmer, Adamsville, Shiloh, Crump, Bethel Springs, Eastview, Ramer,
Stantonville, Forty Forks, Hickory Flats, Mount Vinson, New Lawton,
Martin Camp, Good Hope, Pebble Hill, Old Lawton, Pittsburg Landing,
Gilchrist, West Shihloh, and Hurley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8824 3503 8863 3513 8870 3538 8845
      3538 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 237DEG 21KT 3513 8859

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
156 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

MSZ002-003-141945-
Marshall MS-Benton MS-
156 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 156 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wall Doxey State Park, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wall Doxey State Park, Potts Camp, Winborn, Waterford, Spring Hill,
Pine Grove, Higdon, Gilton, Waites, and Lake Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
northeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 8942 3468 8950 3486 8929 3466 8911
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 236DEG 22KT 3467 8938

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JPR