Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will affect the Mid-South through
tonight with more isolated activity on Monday. A few strong to
severe storms possible. Another round of storms will be possible
late Monday night and Tuesday with a stronger system forecast to
affect the region Wednesday. Cooler and drier conditions are
expected Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A shortwave trough is moving across the Ozarks this afternoon,
enhancing large-scale forcing for ascent across the region. A
northwest-southeast oriented band of showers and thunderstorms
will continue to lift poleward across the area through 00z (7
pm), with more scattered convection in its wake this evening and
overnight. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with
this activity, with the primary concern being damaging wind.
Hodographs lengthen tonight as the low-level flow increases, but
the nocturnal boundary layer is likely to become capped, resulting
in mostly elevated storms within a few hours of sunset.
Lingering showers are expected tomorrow morning, mainly east of
the MS River followed by a midday lull as shortwave ridging
develops over the region. However, there is a potential for
isolated showers or thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon as the
next approaching waves interacts with residual moisture and warm
surface temperatures.

Convection will develop upstream over KS/OK Monday afternoon ahead
of a cold front. Storms are expected to grow upscale into a linear
MCS, weakening early Tuesday morning as they approach the Mid-
South. The Day 2 SPC Outlook extended the marginal risk east to
account for this activity, but confidence is low that it will
maintain its intensity into the Mid-South. Nonetheless, a few
strong storms appear to be possible late Monday night. The upper-
level shortwave axis will swing across the area early Tuesday but
broad west- southwest flow aloft will likely maintain at least
weak synoptic forcing associated with embedded perturbations
within the mean flow. Diurnal destabilization is anticipated after
morning convection which should lead to additional development
during the afternoon. Multicellular convection looks to be the
primary mode, resulting in a damaging wind threat.

A more robust system looks to affect the region Wednesday. A Rex
Block develops over the western CONUS with a broad trough over the
Plains. A strengthening subtropical jet will develop over the
Lower MS Valley, enhancing winds aloft (and deep-layer shear).
This jet will also enhance lift within the left exit region,
perhaps coupling with the right entrance region of the polar jet
over the northern OH Valley. The amount of synoptic forcing for
Wednesday will partially depend on the timing of any shortwave
troughs rotating around the base of the main trough. The global
ensembles maintain fairly strong agreement on the evolution of
this pattern with the best lift during the afternoon and evening.
Parameter space is concerning regarding the severe weather
potential with the joint probability of at least 1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE and 40 kts of deep-layer shear at or above 70% along and
north of I-40 with decreasing probability to the south south
(weaker shear). The CSU machine leaning probabilities for severe
weather are ominous and the Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe
Parameter (CWASP) is well into the 70s (and even 80s in some
areas). The big question is whether or not the large scale forcing
and diurnal heating will be sufficient to break the mid-level
capping inversion. Stay tuned.

Rain chances linger through Thursday but drier conditions will
advect into the region behind the departing trough as we approach
the weekend. The weakening Rex Block will maintain a trough over
the eastern CONUS. The NAEFS mean 500 mb heights are in the 10th
percentile this weekend, implying below normal temperatures across
the Mid-South. This is reflected in the current forecast with
highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low/mid 50s. Generally dry
weather is anticipated Friday and Saturday, but we'll have to keep
an eye on the potential trough on Sunday.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A shortwave is shifting across the Middle Mississippi River
Valley. Persistent showers and thunderstorms are approaching MEM
and will likely remain in the airspace for the next 2-3 hours.
Storms should be weakening as they approach MKL between 08-80z.
Cigs are expected to lower to IFR levels behind the line with
additional thunderstorm development possible through the night. We
should see a bit of a break in the morning before additional
convection develops tomorrow afternoon. Prevailing winds will
remain from the south to southwest generally 5-10kt through the
TAF cycle, although brief gusts are possible in association with
any thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms should taper off
after sunset.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1210 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

TNZ049>052-088>090-060545-
Hardeman TN-Tipton TN-Fayette TN-Madison TN-Crockett TN-Shelby TN-
Haywood TN-
1210 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON...NORTHERN FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN...
SOUTHERN HAYWOOD...WESTERN MADISON AND EASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES
THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...

At 1209 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Arlington, or 16 miles northeast of Cordova,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Brownsville, Arlington, Whiteville, Somerville, Hillville,
Bemis, Holly Grove, Adair, Dancyville, Cloverport, Mercer, Warren,
Oakland, Mason, Gallaway, Stanton, Toone, Braden, and Medon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 8881 3543 8884 3541 8884 3513 8959
      3537 8969 3580 8890 3579 8890 3547 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0509Z 240DEG 29KT 3532 8956

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AC3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1219 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MSZ002-008-012-013-060545-
Lafayette MS-Marshall MS-Panola MS-Tate MS-
1219 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE...CENTRAL
MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN TATE AND NORTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTIES THROUGH
1245 AM CDT...

At 1219 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barr, or 8 miles southeast of Senatobia, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Senatobia, Holly Springs, Wall Doxey State Park, Barr, Harmontown,
Laws Hill, Marianna, Potts Camp, Waterford, Aiken, Higdon, Crossroad,
Tyro, Gilton, Chulahoma, Lake Center, Glenville, Galena, Blackwater,
and Looxahoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 8997 3490 8943 3470 8930 3465 8930
      3444 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 235DEG 24KT 3456 8984

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AC3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
106 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MSZ002-008-012-013-060645-
Lafayette MS-Marshall MS-Panola MS-Tate MS-
106 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE...
SOUTHERN MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN TATE AND NORTHEASTERN PANOLA
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM CDT...

At 106 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sardis, or near John W Kyle State Park, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holly Springs, Batesville, Wall Doxey State Park, John W Kyle State
Park, Sardis, Bethlehem, Harmontown, Laws Hill, Abbeville, Malone,
Blackwater, Teckville, Waterford, Tyro, Gilton, Chulahoma, Glenville,
Galena, Hayes Crossing, and Spraggins.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 9003 3479 8944 3459 8930 3459 8929
      3458 8929 3456 8927 3429 8991
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 238DEG 34KT 3441 8990

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AC3