Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024

A frontal boundary will move into the region tonight with showers
and thunderstorms developing ahead of it. A few strong to severe
storms are possible. The main axis of clouds and rain chances will
extend from central Mississippi into northern Alabama on Monday
with good eclipse viewing conditions expected in the area of
totality. Unsettled weather will return Monday night and continue
through Thursday. A flooding threat will develop as multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024

A complex weather pattern has set up across the Mid-South this
afternoon as a warm front is moving into middle Tennessee. Behind
the warm front, dewpoints range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. A
weak cold front extends front eastern Missouri south through
central Arkansas and into far east Texas. Temperatures are not
that much cooler behind this front but dewpoints lower
significantly into the mid 20s to mid 30s. A few showers and
isolated thunderstorms have developed ahead of this cold front
across portions of east Arkansas. A strong or severe thunderstorm
could develop later this afternoon with damaging winds and large
hail being the main threats. Also, windy conditions have developed
across portions of northeast Arkansas where the Wind Advisory
remain in effect until 5 PM CDT.

As this cold front moves east into the Mid-South tonight,
additional showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly east of
the Mississippi River. Temperatures tonight will be quite mild for
early April with lows Monday morning in the upper 50s to lower
60s. The cold front should weaken as it moves south Monday morning
with a few scattered thunderstorms possible for areas south of
I-40. With drier air moving into portions of northeast Arkansas on
Monday, conditions are looking more favorable for viewing the
solar eclipse along the path of totality. Temperatures will be on
the warm side on Monday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80
degrees.

By Monday night, the boundary will start to lift back north with
showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread. A few of the
thunderstorms may be strong to severe Monday night with gusty
winds and hail as the main threats.

By Tuesday, a cold front will be over northwest Arkansas and will
head slowly toward the Mid-South with more showers and
thunderstorms. Low pressure develops along the front along the
Texas/Louisiana border by Wednesday morning and moves into west
Tennessee by Thursday morning. This will enhance the development
of thunderstorms for Tuesday night through Thursday. While strong
to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out, the main threat will
be heavy rainfall. Between tonight and Thursday, much of the Mid-
South could see between 4 and 8 inches of rain during this
period. The most likely time for heavy rainfall will be from
Tuesday night through Wednesday and a Flood Watch may be needed
for this time period.

As the surface low pulls out of the region by Thursday evening,
the threat of rain will end. Cooler and drier air will move into
the region with dry weather expected for Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will be near normal for Thursday night through Friday
night with warmer weather expected on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024

Gusty winds are expected to continue at all sites this afternoon
and evening as a cold front approaches the Mid-South. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front later,
resulting in MVFR VIS and CIGS during periods of TSRA and SHRA. At
TUP, an extended period of MVFR to LIFR conditions will occur as
the front approaches and then stalls over the region. Some
guidance has hinted at the possibility for lower CIGS at MEM in
the morning, but confidence remains too low to be included in the
TAF for now.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ009-018-026-
     028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TNZ001.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...JPR

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