Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
736 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected to
occur later tonight into Friday as a slow moving cold front crosses
the area. Rain chances taper off tomorrow. A weak system will
bring a few showers to portions of north Mississippi on Saturday
night, before cool and dry conditions settle in on Sunday. There
is a chance for some sub- freezing morning lows Monday and more
likely on Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

As of 1 PM, a surface low is located along the OK/KS state line. The
associated cold front is stretched through Oklahoma and into the
Texas Panhandle. This system is on track to bring strong to severe
thunderstorms to the Mid-South later this evening. Also at this
time, we are beginning to see some shower activity over north
Mississippi. Surface based instability is still capped for now,
but elevated instability remains. As the cap breaks, this discrete
cell development will continue and could bring a few strong to
severe storms to NW Mississippi and SE Arkansas ahead of the line.
Most likely timing for this development looks to be 3-7 PM.

The thermodynamic environment includes steep lapse rates, but now
exceeding 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Bulk shear is not too impressive for
a system at this time of year, but it is enough for support
development of organized convection through the overnight hours.
Hodographs have started showing a curving trend (in northeast AR)in
the lower levels (>200 m^2/s^2), but remain uniform in the mid-
levels. Deterministic soundings have much lower SRH values elsewhere
across the Mid-South.  All this together indicates a linear storm
mode with the primary threats of large hail and a few tornadoes,
most likely embedded quick spin ups for the main show. Discrete cell
development ahead of the line looks likely and could produce some
severe storms as well.

Secondary threats include damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The
most likely timing for severe thunderstorms is 8 PM Thursday until 6
AM Friday, but storms could begin to fire up as early as 5 PM. As we
move into the morning hours on Friday, the severe threat will
transition to a heavy rainfall threat. The heavy rainfall threat is
aided by PW above the 90th percentile and training storms. QPF for
Friday through Sunday is 1-2", with locally higher amounts possible.
The bulk of the rainfall will occur overnight Thursday into Friday.
While uncertainty still remains the axis of heavy rainfall looks to
setup in a swath from Marks, MS, through Batesville and Oxford,
Lagrange, TN to Shiloh TN.

A few lingering showers will persist on Sunday for portions of north
Mississippi as high pressure associated with a re-enforcing cold
front settles in. Monday morning will be chilly with highs in the
low to mid 30s near the TN/KY/MO state lines, to the lower 40s in
Mississippi. Although Monday morning will be chilly, Tuesday morning
will be even colder under clear skies and high pressure aloft.
Tuesday morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s areawide
threatening for frost/freeze. By the middle of next week, near
normal temperatures return and dry conditions will continue.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Thunderstorm development is expected to occur across the airspace
this evening through tomorrow. This will likely be associated
with MVFR conditions. Reduction of VIS to IFR is possible in any
heavy thunderstorm. It's also worth noting that these
thunderstorms will be capable of all severe hazards in the
strongest cores. Eventually, thunderstorms are expected to move
through the area with lingering shower activity and IFR CIGS
occurring thereafter.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JPR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
744 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     Hail             5 NE Tremont            34.29N 88.19W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Itawamba           MS   Public

            1.00 inch hail reported along Cotton Gin
            Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
744 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ARZ009-018-026-MOZ113-150115-
Greene AR-Craighead AR-Clay AR-Dunklin MO-
744 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GREENE...CRAIGHEAD...CLAY AND
SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 743 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from McDougal to near Beech Grove to Swifton.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jonesboro, Paragould, Kennett, Piggott, Bono, Lake City, Campbell,
Rector, Bay, Senath, Brookland, Marmaduke, Crowleys Ridge State Park,
Lake Frierson State Park, Clarkton, Oak Grove Heights, Cardwell,
Holcomb, Arbyrd, and Lafe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for eastern
Arkansas...and southeastern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 9103 3588 9087 3604 9084 3615 9075
      3615 9080 3648 9041 3649 8996 3637 8996
      3605 9013 3600 9021 3600 9029 3595 9029
      3570 9065 3571 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 280DEG 20KT 3641 9038 3613 9063 3581 9115

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAD

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