Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
327 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast daily
through the long weekend due to a series of slow moving cold
fronts. As we move into next week, a stalled frontal boundary
along the Gulf Coast will continue rain chances for the southern
portion of the area. Below normal temperatures are expected
areawide for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Current radar trends depict a wave of diurnally enhanced showers
and thunderstorms gently rotating about a weak surface ridge. A
few rogue storms could pulse up to form small hail or gusty
winds, but for the most part dynamics are quite on par with run-
of-the-mill summertime convection. Expect this first wave to
mostly be settling down by sunset, closely followed by another
round of convection moving in from the northwest along an
approaching cold front overnight.

The timing of this first cold front overnight has continued to
trend slower and slower. It may actually stall altogether over
central Missouri tomorrow morning, which will keep PoPs above 40%
for the Mid-South through Sunday evening. There is also a brief
window during the initial FROPA tomorrow afternoon where the
parameter space may line up to produce a few strong to severe
thunderstorms. The main threats, if any, would be gusty winds and
large hail. A second reinforcing cold front is set to swing down
on Monday morning, clearing the area by the end of Labor Day
Weekend. We'll have a very brief break with cool, dry air moving
in on Tuesday morning before the front retrogrades back north
midweek.

Medium to long range guidance generally places the stationary
front across central Mississippi mid next week. An inverted trough
extending northward from the mesolow will keep PoPs in the 30-40%
range for the entire Mid-South for much of next week, especially
since forecast surface analyses suggest little to no movement in
either of these features for several days. The good news is that
persistent rain and heavy cloud cover will help keep temperatures
5-10 degrees below normal through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

A ceiling at 20 kft has persisted throughout the morning with some
clearing being observed on satellite imagery. This has somewhat
delayed expected cumulus development by a couple of hours, from
which thunderstorms are possible. Nonetheless, VCTS was
introduced in MEM/MKL/TUP through 04z tonight. Some fog is
possible tomorrow morning at JBR/MKL/TUP, but exact visibility
impacts are difficult to discern at this time due to relatively
high forecast uncertainty.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JAB

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