Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
245 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected to
occur later tonight into Friday as a slow moving cold front crosses
the area. Rain chances taper off tomorrow. A weak system will
bring a few showers to portions of north Mississippi on Saturday
night, before cool and dry conditions settle in on Sunday. There
is a chance for some sub- freezing morning lows Monday and more
likely on Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

As of 1 PM, a surface low is located along the OK/KS state line. The
associated cold front is stretched through Oklahoma and into the
Texas Panhandle. This system is on track to bring strong to severe
thunderstorms to the Mid-South later this evening. Also at this
time, we are beginning to see some shower activity over north
Mississippi. Surface based instability is still capped for now,
but elevated instability remains. As the cap breaks, this discrete
cell development will continue and could bring a few strong to
severe storms to NW Mississippi and SE Arkansas ahead of the line.
Most likely timing for this development looks to be 3-7 PM.

The thermodynamic environment includes steep lapse rates, but now
exceeding 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Bulk shear is not too impressive for
a system at this time of year, but it is enough for support
development of organized convection through the overnight hours.
Hodographs have started showing a curving trend (in northeast AR)in
the lower levels (>200 m^2/s^2), but remain uniform in the mid-
levels. Deterministic soundings have much lower SRH values elsewhere
across the Mid-South.  All this together indicates a linear storm
mode with the primary threats of large hail and a few tornadoes,
most likely embedded quick spin ups for the main show. Discrete cell
development ahead of the line looks likely and could produce some
severe storms as well.

Secondary threats include damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The
most likely timing for severe thunderstorms is 8 PM Thursday until 6
AM Friday, but storms could begin to fire up as early as 5 PM. As we
move into the morning hours on Friday, the severe threat will
transition to a heavy rainfall threat. The heavy rainfall threat is
aided by PW above the 90th percentile and training storms. QPF for
Friday through Sunday is 1-2", with locally higher amounts possible.
The bulk of the rainfall will occur overnight Thursday into Friday.
While uncertainty still remains the axis of heavy rainfall looks to
setup in a swath from Marks, MS, through Batesville and Oxford,
Lagrange, TN to Shiloh TN.

A few lingering showers will persist on Sunday for portions of north
Mississippi as high pressure associated with a re-enforcing cold
front settles in. Monday morning will be chilly with highs in the
low to mid 30s near the TN/KY/MO state lines, to the lower 40s in
Mississippi. Although Monday morning will be chilly, Tuesday morning
will be even colder under clear skies and high pressure aloft.
Tuesday morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s areawide
threatening for frost/freeze. By the middle of next week, near
normal temperatures return and dry conditions will continue.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MVFR cigs should prevail this afternoon at JBR, MEM and MKL, with
deteriorating cigs overnight. It will take another 3-2 hrs for the
MVFR cigs to move into TUP. We have low confidence on the exact
timing of a line of showers and thunderstorms overnight as well as
any potential development this afternoon/evening ahead of the
main line. Behind the line, cigs will likely fall to IFR levels.
Gradient winds will remain south to southwesterly this afternoon
with gusts to 25kt. Winds 8-10kts overnight. Much  higher gusts
(likely from the west) and brief IFR vis are both likely in
association with any thunderstorms.

12/Sirmon

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS

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