Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1210 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
Issued at 845 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Instability remains quite strong across the Mid-South as of 8 PM
with MLCAPE upwards of 3500-4500 J/kg ahead of the line of storms
marching across the Mid MS Valley. This instability will provide
ample fuel for additional thunderstorm development over northeast
AR and southeast MO over the next hour or two. This line of
storms will show an eastward motion but the additional storms
along the lower end of the front will keep areas farther south
toward I-40 in the primary risk area into the early morning hours.

We've seen some discrete supercells develop over southern IL and
western KY, and could yet see this in portions of West TN in the
next few hours. This will pose the primary threat for strong,
long-track tornadoes. The NQA-generated hodograph indicates
strong cyclonic curvature in the lowest 2 km with 0-1 km SRH of
338 m2/s2, which is quite strong and favorable for low-level
mesocyclones.

Damaging wind is likely within the main line of storms, as is
severe hail, but a few tornadoes are possible in this line. Given
the 0-3 km shear vector of 270 at 40-45 kts, any portions of the
QLCS that becomes roughly N-S oriented would have a potential for
mesovortex generation which could enhance the damaging
wind/tornado threat, especially given the significant 0-3 km CAPE
of 150+ in the warm sector. The severe threat will continue well
into the early morning hours.

MJ

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

One final round of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
tonight before a period of drier weather is expected for the
upcoming work week. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday, mainly in north Mississippi, but much more widespread
storms return next weekend. Cooler temperatures are expected
Wednesday featuring highs around 80 degrees. Temperatures will
trend warmer Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Additional thunderstorms this afternoon look uncertain, but any
storms that do develop have a high potential to become severe.
Data from A Little Rock special sounding has increased confidence
that severe storms capable of strong tornadoes, very large hail,
and intense damaging winds are possible this afternoon and
continuing into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has
upgraded northern portions of west Tennessee, far northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to a Tornado/Wind driven
Moderate Risk(level 4/5) in their Day 1 Convective Outlook.

A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front
is expected to traverse the Midsouth tonight. CAMS have been
inconsistent in how solid this line will be but timing has been
pretty solid. Expect the main threat from strong to severe
thunderstorms between 9 PM and 5 AM. Tornadoes, damaging wind,
large hail and flooding from heavy rain are all possible. The
threat of tornadoes should diminish through the night as
hodographs lengthen resulting in less pronounced low level shear.
However, as the line interacts with any outflow boundaries from
storms earlier today, or additional storms this afternoon, the
localized threat for a tornado could become enhanced.

A Flood watch remains in effect for the northern half
of the Midsouth through 7 AM. Portions of the Missouri bootheel
and west Tennessee along the Kentucky State Line where MRMS data
indicates 2-4 inches has already fallen will be most vulnerable
for additional flooding. Local amounts of rain in excess of 6
inches has likely fallen in this region prompting Flood and Flash
flood Warnings. Any additional rain has a high potential to
exacerbate ongoing flooding issues.

Surface high pressure will build in on Monday behind the overnight
line of storms. A few showers may still linger in north
Mississippi and along the Tennessee River around Sunrise tomorrow,
but Memorial Day looks dry across most of the Midsouth. Highs
Tomorrow and Tuesday are expected to be in the middle 80s to
around 90 degrees.

A low amplitude long wave trough will shift across the Upper and
Middle Mississippi River Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday along
with a cold front. A shortwave will track from southeast Oklahoma
into south Mississippi possibly helping to initiate a few showers
and thunderstorms in north Mississippi Wednesday. High
temperatures Wednesday are expected to be around 80 degrees.
Temperatures will trend warmer Thursday into next weekend with
highs back in the mid 80s by Sunday. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the Midsouth next weekend.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Thunderstorms will be moving across much of the Mid-South
overnight. Behind the main line of thunderstorms, calmer weather
with VFR conditions and light west winds are expected on Monday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048.

MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ARS

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