Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1229 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Surface analysis late this morning places a surface low over
western Ontario with a cold front extending south back into
Indiana and into portions of southeast Missouri, northwest
Arkansas, and back into the Red River Valley. GOES
Satellite/Regional WSR-88D radar trends show an MCS over west
Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. A few elevated showers and a
thunderstorm developed over west Tennessee over the past couple
hours and have since diminished. As of 10 AM CDT, temperatures
across the Mid-South are in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Short-term models, especially the CAMs have struggled with the
overall evolution of convective activity across the Mid-South into
this evening. Nonetheless, a shortwave trough rotating through the
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys combined with an unstable
atmosphere is expected to result in showers and thunderstorms
across the Mid-South, especially this afternoon and evening.

Favorable upper-level divergence produced by the right entrance
region of a 105 kt 250 mb jet streak, surface-based CAPE values in
excess of 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 35-45 kts,
and precipitable water values approaching 1.7 inches suggest a
potential for organized severe thunderstorms with damaging winds
as the primary severe weather threat and heavy rainfall. Overall
forecast is in good shape but will make adjustments to rain
chances to reflect current short-term trends.

CJC

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Active weather will persist for most of the forecast period. Strong
to severe storms are possible for the next several days. A Slight
Risk is in place for severe storms capable of producing damaging
winds and large hail this afternoon. Several systems will cross the
region for the remainder of this week that will also threaten
damaging winds and large hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A few lingering showers and storms are depicted on KNQA radar as
of 3 AM with continuous signs of weakening. The remnants of any of
this convection will help a MCS/MCV develop ahead of an
approaching cold front. Southwesterly flow will surge a moisture
plume and bring dewpoints into the 70s this morning.

Deterministic soundings are indicative of a damaging wind and large
hail as the primary threats this afternoon into evening. Inverted V
soundings will provide excellent mixing with around 50kts of
effective shear. Unstable lapse rates (~8 C/km) through the column
with MLCAPE ~2500 J/kg and SHIP values >1 may bring large, to very
large hail. On a positive note, SRH values are low (<100 m^2/s^2)
which keeps the tornadic threat below the damaging wind and hail
threat. PWs are in the 90th percentile or higher, meaning locally
heavy rainfall is possible, particularly with any strong updrafts
could lead to localized flooding. Current QPF values are highest
for todays set of storms in the Mississippi Delta region. This
round of convective activity will be aided by diurnal heating and
look to fire up this afternoon ~1pm. Depending on where remnant
outflow boundaries lie from overnight convection, this could
change our severe weather outlook for today, hence the removal of
the Enhanced to a Slight Risk.

The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall tomorrow evening
before lifting north as a warm front by Thursday evening. As a
result of this, showers and thunderstorm chances remain in the
forecast. Another Slight Risk for severe weather is in place for
Thursday with a Marginal Risk for Friday.  The placement of the LLJ
will keep an active weather pattern across the Mid-South likely
until Tuesday as series of systems will cross the region. While it
will not rain or thunderstorm the entire forecast period, QPF
continues to trend upwards. QPF for the next 7 days of 2-6" across
the area. Memphis is currently in an area of 5" for the next 7 days.
While it is a bit early for specifics, SPC has highlighted at least
a 15% chance of severe weather on Sunday.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Timing of convective impacts remains the primary concern this
period as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated. As of 1730Z, storms continue to pop up and impact all
sites except for TUP. This initial round of storms should persist
into early evening, with another round approaching MEM shortly
after sunset.

Given uncertainty of precipitation impacts overnight, kept PROB30
groups in at all sites for TSRA. Showers and storms will remain
possible through the end of the period. Otherwise, winds will be
mainly out of the south with VFR CIGs anticipated.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ANS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
138 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     Hail             1 E Harrisburg          35.56N 90.70W
05/22/2024  E1.00 Inch       Poinsett           AR   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
140 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     Hail             Jonesboro               35.82N 90.68W
05/22/2024  E1.75 Inch       Craighead          AR   Public

            Golf Ball sized hail reported at Hobby Lobby
            in Jonesboro.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
148 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

TNZ004-022-221915-
Benton TN-Henry TN-
148 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BENTON AND EASTERN
HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 147 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springville, or near Paris, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Paris Landing State Park, Springville, Big Sandy, Haigler
Ridge, Sunnyside, Manleyville, Spring Creek, Old Springville,
Buchanan, India, and Big Sandy Unit Tennessee National Wildlife
Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 8821 3633 8832 3650 8806 3650 8805
      3647 8805 3645 8806 3644 8806 3643 8804
      3637 8800 3634 8797 3633 8797 3631 8795
      3628 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 238DEG 38KT 3630 8819

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DKJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
148 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

TNZ004-022-221915-
Benton TN-Henry TN-
148 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BENTON AND EASTERN
HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 147 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springville, or near Paris, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Paris Landing State Park, Springville, Big Sandy, Haigler
Ridge, Sunnyside, Manleyville, Spring Creek, Old Springville,
Buchanan, India, and Big Sandy Unit Tennessee National Wildlife
Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 8821 3633 8832 3650 8806 3650 8805
      3647 8805 3645 8806 3644 8806 3643 8804
      3637 8800 3634 8797 3633 8797 3631 8795
      3628 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 238DEG 38KT 3630 8819

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DKJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
202 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 PM     Hail             Camden                  36.07N 88.11W
05/22/2024  E0.88 Inch       Benton             TN   Emergency Mngr

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
219 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

TNZ002>004-019>022-054-222000-
Carroll TN-Henderson TN-Weakley TN-Benton TN-Obion TN-Henry TN-
Dyer TN-Gibson TN-
219 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEAKLEY...NORTHWESTERN
HENDERSON...NORTHEASTERN DYER...GIBSON...CENTRAL BENTON...
SOUTHEASTERN OBION...CARROLL AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 218 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of McKenzie, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Martin, Paris, Milan, McKenzie, Trenton, Huntingdon, Camden, Paris
Landing State Park, Newbern, Dresden, Dyer, Greenfield, Bruceton,
Gleason, Kenton, Rutherford, Obion, Bradford, Sharon, and Atwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8794 3603 8800 3575 8858 3576 8861
      3579 8861 3579 8867 3615 8951 3650 8859
      3650 8856 3648 8852 3650 8851 3650 8806
      3644 8806 3636 8799 3636 8810 3626 8808
      3622 8813 3629 8795 3622 8795 3618 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 238DEG 37KT 3609 8863

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DKJ