Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
621 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Francine continues to move through the Mid-South, bringing heavy
rainfall and strong wind gusts this afternoon. Strong winds will
continue through the evening, with heavy rainfall continuing for
portions of the Mid-South through at least Friday. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect for the entire area until 1 AM. A Flood Watch
continues for most of the area into this evening, with a small
portion along the Tennessee River continuing through Friday
Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Francine remains the main talking point for the forecast period,
with the remnant low pressure making its way across the Mid-South.
Several locations have gusted over 40 mph this afternoon, with
Memphis International Airport reporting a gust to 52 mph.
Strongest winds will continue now through this evening, slowly
continuing to move northward with the parent system. In addition
to the strong winds, heavy rainfall continues to be a problem
across the Mid-South and will continue into this evening for West
TN and NE AR. Several locations have already seen 3 to 4 inches,
with some locally higher amounts reported. The one good news thus
far in everything is that CAPE has remained negligible, thus no
thunderstorms have been in the mix. A Marginal Risk continues
across portions of North MS along the MS/AL border, but the
environment continues to remain stable over these locations and
latest trends indicate that it will continue to remain stable
into the evening. All of that to say, if we get a thunderstorm or
two it would be over north MS, but that looks unlikely at this
point.

As we move into the overnight hours and into tomorrow, there is an
isolated flooding threat that will continue along the TN River. A
few CAMs continue to paint an axis of heavy rainfall setting up by
tomorrow afternoon, that could bring and additional 2 to 3 inches
to those locations. There is a lot of uncertainty with where this
axis will set up, but have included some locations in an
additional Flood Watch through tomorrow. Expect for temperatures
to remain well below-normal again tomorrow as cloud coverage will
aid in keeping high temperatures in the 70s across the area.

Forecast will remain somewhat unsettled through the weekend and
into the beginning of next week as the remnant low pressure from
Francine will remain over the Mid-South. Most models keep at least
some precipitation in the area through Monday. Parent low will
finally track eastward by Tuesday, bringing a warmer and drier
airmass back to the Mid-South. By the middle of next week, expect
for high temperatures to return to near normal in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Rain showers associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression
Francine cover much of the Mid-South with rain continuing through
Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, showers will become more
scattered in nature. Ceilings will be mainly MVFR tonight with a
period of IFR ceilings from time to time. IFR ceilings should
prevail on Friday morning but return to MVFR levels in the
afternoon. Winds will start out from the northeast at around 20
knots with higher gusts this evening. Some low level wind shear is
possible over portions of west Tennessee. Winds will be southeast
around 15 knots with higher gusts overnight. Southeast winds will
diminish some on Friday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

     Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ026>028-035-036-
     048.

     Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

     Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

     Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TNZ019-020-048>052-
     088>090.

     Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning
     for TNZ021-022-053>055-091-092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ARS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
343 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 5 WSW Mantachie         34.29N 88.57W
09/12/2024                   Lee                MS   Public

            Small tree reported down on CR 1451 near
            Mooreville.

&&

CMA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
433 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 SW Harmontown         34.50N 89.70W
09/12/2024                   Lafayette          MS   Public

            A tree was knocked down on a house on New
            Hope Road.

&&

SJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
450 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 5 WNW Denmark           34.34N 89.43W
09/12/2024                   Lafayette          MS   Utility Company

            A power pole was broken near the Highlands
            area east-southeast of Oxford on Highway 6.

&&

SJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
531 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Marked Tree             35.53N 90.42W
09/12/2024                   Poinsett           AR   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Tree down on Madison Street in Marked Tree.

&&

SJM