Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
900 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Minimal changes made to the forecast for this update. The main
thing to watch overnight will be the potential for fog
development. Otherwise, expect Sunday to be warm and mainly dry
with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

ANS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of
the Mid-South through this evening as an upper level disturbance
moves across the region. Thereafter, mainly rainfree and humid
conditions will persist on Sunday. Unsettled weather will return
on Monday and persist through mid week as several upper level
disturbances rotate through the region. A cold front will push
into the Mid-South late Wednesday night through Thursday with
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible. Active weather will
return next weekend as more upper level disturbances move
through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The latest surface analysis places a 1011mb low near St. Louis
with a quasi-stationary front extending southeast into west
Tennessee and northern Alabama. Aloft, a broad shortwave was
analyzed over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue to develop and slowly move east across
much of the Mid-South at this hour. This activity will decrease
through the evening hours as the main shortwave begins to lift out
and pivot eastward. Skies are expected to clear along and west of
the Mississippi River late tonight with the potential of dense
fog developing overnight. Further east, clouds may linger on the
backside of the trough and limit widespread fog from forming.

Sunday now appears to be a mostly dry day, albeit a bit humid.
Upper level heights will build slightly in wake of the exiting
shortwave. Weak zonal flow will persist across the region through
midweek and allow at least a couple of weak waves to translate
through.

Active weather will return on Monday as a vort max moves across
the Southern Plains and into the Mid-South. With the combination
of a moderately unstable airmass in place and weak deep layer
shear, a few strong storms are possible. Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are the main threats.

Weak troughing will remain over the region on Tuesday with
additional scattered shower and thunderstorm development possible
during the day. Upper level flow will shift to the northwest by
Wednesday and allow a cold front to move into the Mid-South and
possibly stall out. This front will serve as a focus for showers
and thunderstorms. Some drier air may work its way into areas
north of I-40 by Thursday, but the airmass will remain quite
moist.

An expansive upper low will drop down into the Northern Plains on
Thursday and expand all the way into the Ohio Valley by late week.
The evolution of the upper low is not resolved by either of the
main synoptic models at this point. Nonetheless, at least a couple
pieces of energy will rotate around the large system and dive
southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will bring yet
another threat of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South next
weekend.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A few showers are ongoing across the Midsouth. Will include VCSH
at MKL, for a few hours this evening. Otherwise, coverage should
be minimal. South to southwest wind will weaken after sunset and
expected to remain 6kts or less tomorrow and tomorrow night as a
weak ridge and surface high pressure builds across the Midsouth.
Patchy fog and stratus is possible late tonight at MKL and TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JDS